08/13/2010 10:56AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday August 14th


Well, we're back, following two weeks interrupted by Saratoga and technical issues, and midway through the summer it looks like BreezeFigs' history is proving itself again, i.e., horses with good profiles are coming home on top and/or completing nice gimmicks, at tracks across the country. Beginning with the opening of Del Mar, there have been 42 maiden winners across the country, 29 of which were Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs horses (69%), and another six of which were within two points of Par in Group 3 or Group 4. That brings the "playable" winners to 35 out of 42, or 83% of the winners. In addition, 76% of those winners had longer–than–average stride lengths (SL) at the sale, and 90% of them broke their maidens in their first or second starts. Now, not every race will play out this way because not every race is restricted to 2–year–old sales graduates, some races come off the turf, others are loaded with pricey babies, other runners have troubles. But, it's a pretty good record so far and we hope to be able to come up with another juicy one this week (below). Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2010 sales sheets have a major addition in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2–year–old sales, So sign up for DRF–Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF–PUS box in the right hand column on the drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2–year–old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer–than–average stride lengths at the five major 2–year–old sales of 2006–07–08–09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black–type, than horses with shorter–than–average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3–year–old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2–year–old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here's our picks for opening Saturday at Saratoga and Del Mar. Good luck!

Saratoga, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Here we go, a totally confusing race because it's around two turns on the turf, with most of these fillies first–timers, some of which have been training on the turf all along. Weather could factor in and take it off the turf (one never knows in the Saratoga basin), so we'll just play it as it lays on the BreezeFigs profiles and try not to hedge too much. There are five BreezeFigs horses here, one of which is "dirt–only" (Grace Alley) and another on the AE list (Steal the Dance). All five have a shot under various scenarios, but let's start with the three who are likely to start. More Than Real has the best overall profile, a Group 1, three–over–Par performance at FTFFEB where she showed a 23–foot SL, on dirt, which was a bit above average for fillies that day. But she was not sold (RNA for 140k) so you have the inside skinny on what she did at the sale since it doesn't appear in the PP's. She's from a torrid barn and will be played heavily. My Sparky had a Group 2, two–over–Par profile at OBSFEB where she sparkled with a 24.61 foot SL, almost 1.5 feet above average on a synthetic track. She's been breezing on the turf more than her rivals and may have a familiarity advantage here. War Clan bombed in her debut on the dirt at Churchill, but she's bred for the turf from a turf barn and could show up around the wire as well. She posted a one–over–Par Group 1 profile at the tony KEEAPR sale on synthetic where here just below average 22.66 SL obviously did not help her sell (she was RNA'd for 170k). If she sneaks in, Steal the Dance could make some noise because even though she was a Group 3, three–under–Par performer at FTFFEB on the dirt, she had an almost foot–longer–than–average SL there, and is in very clever hands. If the race comes off the turf, Grace Alley has a shot based on a solid even–Par, Group 2 profile on the dirt at EASMAY where her SL was over a foot longer than average. She flopped at a shorter distance in the slop in her debut, but may get up in a decimated field. Now that we've touched all bases, have we got a play? We really like My Sparky to nip More Than Real, and if she gets in, Steal the Dance needs to be in your gimmicks. Good luck!