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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday August 13th
One of our gimmick plays, Currency Swap, handed out a $21.80 win payoff last week—but that was not the story. No, the story was that from August 5th through August 11th, 25 BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens across the country, 23 of which were eminently playable given our standards of dipping no lower than three below Par, given the quality of the race. They were led by an amazing seven at Saratoga, with Calder and Woodbine each racking up four, and Arlington two; winners also popped up at Del Mar, Emerald, Monmouth, Northlands, Parx, Presque Isle and Suffolk. The average win payoff of these 23 horses was $12.98. However, more amazingly, there were 11 BreezeFigs exactas and three trifectas during that time. Here’s the rundown:
August 5th: Arlington, $16.00; Calder, $180.80; Saratoga (two), $83.50, $89.00
August 6th: Woodbine, $30.60
August 7th: Arlington, $12.60
August 10th: Woodbine, $32.80
August 11th: Saratoga $106
Exactas and Trifectas:
August 6th: Del Mar ($1 payoffs), $51.80 and $185.80
August 7th: Calder (two), $89.80 and $617.60 and $196.20 and $538.80
We’re sticking with Saratoga today on a card loaded with juicy opportunities—both races are intriguing. Good luck!
Meanwhile, up in this continent the 2-year-old season is well under way and a half-dozen BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens, all of which were very playable. While the 3-year-old season is officially over for us, there are two cards left over for July 1st and 2nd which are on www.drf.com so you might want to have a look at them, too, but the 2010 cards will disappear this weekend. For now, let’s concentrate on the babies, including our spotlight race below, one of several inscrutable events on Saturday’s card. Best of luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
Here’s our Pick for Saturday:
Saratoga Race Course, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight (NY-Breds), 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Three BreezeFigs colts are in this event, but one, Little Dale, ran last week and may not make it back this soon. He’s a serious threat if he does because he was a seven-over-Par Group 1 colt at OBSAPR with a 24.08 SL, which was .68 feet longer than average, and he ran well on the weeds last week. Still, we think that two others may loo just as good here. Jaw Crusher was bought back for 90k (RNA) at FTFFEB after a Group 2, even-Par performance which featured a 24.78 foot SL, just about a quarter foot below average. He was sold for less than that (63k) at EASMAY where he posted a one-over-Par Group 2 number at a quarter mile with a 25.54 foot SL, 1.30 feet longer than average. He is a big boy, and may need to settle, but he could do it. So could Think I’m Hooked. This one also comes out of EASMAY, with a two-over-Par Group 2 profile, but at an eighth of a mile, with a 24.71 foot SL, just over a foot longer than average. These three are eminently box-able, but we still like Jaw Crusher and Think I’m Hooked to battle it out.
Saratoga Race Course, 6th Race, Maiden Special, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Right to Vote is listed as a 20k purchase at OBSMAR, which is a little strange since he is now owned by a major owner and the breeder—who must have seen what we liked in this son of Political Force (same sire as Jaw Crusher, above). Even though he only posted an Group 2. even-Par effort in his BreezeFigs profile, his 25.43 foot SL, which was 1.52 longer than average, was no fluke. He’s a big boy, too, and could burst through in the stretch here. He might get a tussle from Love to Run, who was sold for 190k following a one-under-Par Group 3 performance at the same sale, but his 23.42 SL was a third of a foot below average that day and he will need to conserve his energy to match strides late. Superstructure comes out of FTFFEB with a four-under-Par Group 3 rating that featured a 24.19 foot SL, just a tad above average on a track that was producing long strides. He may get stuck being on the rail, but like the other two might be a good gimmick play in a race where Pletcher has another monster yearling purchase—though we tip it to Right to Vote. Good luck!