04/08/2011 10:15AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday April 9th


We don’t know whether to weep and gnash teeth, or to laugh, over the milestone we achieved with last week’s Pix:  Our “key,” Heir to Dare, finished second, but the ones we keyed her with (who shall remain nameless) finished ninth, eleventh and twelfth.  Gads.  There were 10 BreezeFigs maiden winners during the week, however, at Aqueduct (2), Charles Town (2), Hawthorne, Oaklawn, Pimlico, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay, Woodbine, so not all was lost for those paying attention—or at least smarter than us.  But Spring is here, Keeneland is open, and we’ve got one to look at there, plus one other at Santa Anita, below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2010 sales sheets have a major addition in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Keeneland, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

One BreezeFigs gelding here, appropriately named (considering the trainer) Irish Frankie, and he’s back after an almost 10 month layoff from his debut (where obviously something went very wrong) to see if he can translate his Group 2, three-over-Par profile at OBSAPR on synthetic to Keeneland’s synthetic.  The main reason he might do OK here is that he sported a 24.5 foot SL at that sale, which was 1.2 feet longer than average for colts at that distance that day, so if he is not sent out to burn the track at the outset, he might be able to generate enough momentum to run down what looks to be a pretty ordinary bunch.

Santa Anita Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

On the other hand, the pedigrees and yearling sale prices in this crowd are impressive, as is the BreezeFigs profile of Dr Ballenger, who brought $260k at OBSMAR after an eye-opening Group 1, seven-over-Par performance at OBSMAR last year.  He sported a three-quarter foot longer-than-average 24.56 foot SL in that quarter mile breeze in 21.3 seconds and wasn’t slowing down all that much at the end, so in this short field he is likely to get played, and you might want to make him your key. 

Good luck!