04/06/2012 8:46AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday April 7th, 2012

Email

“Spring is sprung, the grass is riz, I wonder where the birdies iz…”  If you’re of a certain age, you can remember the punch line to that elementary school ditty, but if you’re just interested in racing, you know the grass is “riz” when Keeneland opens in Kentuckywhich happens this weekend (concurrent with the 2012 KEEAPR sale) because that means fat BreezeFigs cards and lots of betting opportunities.  Last week’s Pick turned out to be a victim of an over enthusiastic ride—Steel Man shot to the lead in his debut in a mile on the turf, and faded in the end to finish third (at 21-to-1).  Still, there were a half-dozen good winners during a week of sparse cards who broke their maidens with BreezeFigs credentials written all over them, including a nice $17.20 payoff by Chickasaw Gal who ran off with her debut Thursday at Gulfstream at a mile on the turf.  We’re going to stick with her profile (OBSAPR, sire Indian Charlie, same track but different surface) this week for our Pick, see below, and Happy Easter and Passover.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Gulfstream Park, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Here’s a hot maiden race filled with pricey fillies who are in the barns of mega trainers.  We’re looking for a potential upset from Eleven Moons, who makes her debut a year after flying a furlong in 9.4 at OBSAPR where her eight-over-Par Group 1 profile featured a 23.57 foot SL, which was more than a foot longer than average for fillies that day.  Her sire, Indian Charlie, will reduce her morning line odds from 10-to-1, but not by much.  And she could be challenged for BreezeFigs supremacy here by Jaggermama, who comes out of the same sale but who breezed a day later (and slower in 10.2) but still earned a six-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 24.12 foot SL—almost a foot-and-a-half longer than average for that day.  She looked OK in her debut way back in June but obviously came out of it a little sore, or something, but she could be hot here, too.  Play it cool, but play them both.  Good luck!