04/29/2011 9:01AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday April 30th


Last week's Quick-Pix challenge was to determine if our choice, Next Question, had the quality to outclass his rivals on a miserably sloppy track at Aqueduct.  Next question?  Actually, he might have some class, but he fried himself in the goo with silly fractions and was not pursued with late so he lost the place, but he did save any trifecta and superfecta gimmicks with him in it.  Today's card reflects the fact that a number of tracks are opening this weekend, so they like to have fewer maiden races until midweek.  Still, we found one that might work within our parameter—which is seeking out first-timers with a shot.  Two-year-olds have started to come out and by next week our 2011 cards should be updated to reflect a change listed in the next paragraph—until then, good luck with the leftovers from 2010!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Calder Race Course, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Two BreezeFigs horses from OBSMAR are in here with a number of first-timers—and we like the first-time BreezeFigs horse Atlantic Bull to show best.  He posted a two-over-Par Group 2 profile last year with a moderate 23.28 foot SL that was more than half a foot below average for that day.  However, he was also scratched after breezing which indicates he may have had a physical problem in that breeze.  He was an 80k yearling purchase so someone liked him once; we do today.  Indonesian has started once and didn't do much back here in December.  But he's been hanging out at his headquarters for his owner-breeder who bought him back (RNA) for 25k last year after he posted an even-Par Group 2 profile with a slightly above-average 23.88 foot SL at the same OBSMAR sale.  He might be worth a gimmick shot, and in this field of virtual unknowns, if Atlantic Bull stumbles along, he could pop up and win.  Good luck!