04/13/2012 10:05AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday April 14th, 2012


Not a bad week overall, including our Pick last Saturday—10 maiden winners on the BreezeFigs cards and five stakes winners last Saturday who were BreezeFigs horses. Eleven Moons, our Pick last week, was scratched and our second choice, Jaggermama, ran second to a serious first-timer, then Eleven Moons came back at Calder later in the week and ran second at a nice price.  This week’s Pick is one of our rare parlays, but it’s so obvious that you might shrug and say, “big deal.”  Maybe so, and maybe not.  Read on, below.  (Happy Easter to our Greek Orthodox friends).  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Aqueduct, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½  Furlongs (Dirt)

The Repole-Pletcher team sends out Street Brawl, a $380k OBSMAR graduate who racked up a Group 1 profile that was two-over-Par on BreezeFigs but a quarter foot shorter than average that day on the stride length (23.51 feet).  They’ve got him at 4-to-1 in the morning line, and he’s up against Sir Flanagan, an EASMAY Group 1 graduate who was also two-over-Par, but with a foot-longer-than-average SL of 24.69 feet.  This one has disappointed in two starts but he’s listed as a ridgling in the PP’s, and maybe that caused issues because he’s been off for three months.  Let’s look at the board, and be conservative here because even though we give Street Brawl a good shot, his action that day at Ocala leaved something to be desired. 

Aqueduct, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Like Street Brawl above, Winter Now went under the hammer at OBSMAR last year to Repole-Pletcher a couple of hours later, but for a relatively humble $140k.  This despite the BreezeFigs profile which had him at six-over-Par, Group 2, with a 26.33 foot SL, almost a foot-and-a-half longer than average the day after Street Brawl breezed.  That’s enormous at an eighth of a mile, but he’s a big colt by a big sire so he should have had that kind of SL.  We thought his action was a bit sloppy and said “turf-turf-turf” and here he is, but on the rail, and at 8-to-1.  He’s up against experienced BreezeFigs horses foremost of which is the 3-to-1 Reserve Currency, who had a solid Group 2 profile at OBSAPR with a foot-longer-than-average 24.03 SL,  and he did well in his only two turf starts this winter, so he’s going to be played, and you should, too.  Also in there is Ruthless Alley, who clocked in with a two-under-Par Group 3 profile on the same day at OBSAPR and a slightly longer-than-average 23.28 foot SL, whose pedigree suggests turf, which is perhaps why he’s failed three times on the dirt.  These two races offer interesting parlay opportunities, and could either be blow outs or bummers.  Watch the board and play carefully, but play.  Good luck!