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Breeze-Figs Quick-Pix for Saturday, June 22nd
By Bob Fierro
Sometimes the 2-year-olds mess with your head. Last week we picked a Group 3 filly at BARMAR, Perched, as the key in her debut in a stakes at Golden Gate, and said the other BreezeFigs first-timer, Skydreamin, a Group 3 colt at OBSMAR, would help set some form of line on the new crop. Erase that. Both were well-played but Skydreamin came home on top and Perched was fourth in a contentious race that shows why these short races can be fraught with questions. No matter. The 2-year-old cards are filling better (two of the three winners last week won stakes in their debuts), and the 3-year-olds are still going strong with six winners last week including a debut winner Catron at Belmont last Saturday who returned a $10 exacta with one of our previous Pix, Charlie’s Picnic. This week we're shopping around for value and may have found something, see below. Good luck!
Remember to pay attention to two changes we’ve made over the past several years. First, there have been changes in the CLASS EDGE category (at the bottom of the BreezeFigs card) because one sale was eliminated (OBSFEB) and FTFFEB is now in March (FTFMAR), and that moved OBSMAR into a higher class. Also, in the SALE & HIP column: the "HIP" refers to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s Saturday’s Pick:
Monmouth Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Two fillies with similar Group 2 credentials from OBSAPR, line up in posts 2 and 3, each modestly sold but both trained by crafty veterans, make this more interesting than it looks on paper. Harbor Mistress (sold for 30k) had a two-over-Par profile at one-eighth of a mile, showing a 24.37 foot stride length which was 1.30 feet longer than average for fillies at one-eighth that day. Gem City Gal (45k), on the other hand, was three-over-Par at a quarter mile the same day, but her stride length was 22.31 feet, almost a foot shorter than average for fillies at that distance that day. This could be interesting and a box exacta wouldn’t hurt—nor would keying Harbor Mistress. Good luck!
- 1.Posted 12/10/2013 02:23PM
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