10/28/2013 6:45PM

Breeders' Cup Mile: Wise Dan will be favored to repeat from post 8

Michael Burns
Wise Dan is even money on the morning line for the Breeders' Cup Mile.

ARCADIA, Calif. - There is something about the Breeders’ Cup Mile that bears repeating – namely, the race’s winner.

Four times in the Mile’s history has the previous year’s winner come home first again. Only four other Breeders’ Cup races have produced so much as a single back-to-back winner, and only the Distaff, with two, has seen more than one winner in consecutive years.

Wise Dan broke the Santa Anita course record winning the 2012 Mile, a performance that propelled him to Horse of the Year honors, and he will be favored to add his name to the list of Mile repeaters when he breaks from post 8 in Saturday’s $2 million Mile. John Velazquez will ride him for trainer Charlie LoPresti and octogenarian owner Mort Fink.

Wise Dan was one of 10 horses entered in the Mile, which has two European invaders in Cristoforo Colombo, who dew post 9, and the much more accomplished Olympic Glory, who got an apparently ideal draw in 5. Olympic Glory impressively won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Oct. 19 at Ascot, but Excelebration, more celebrated than Olympic Glory, only could finish fourth in the 2012 Mile racing on the same schedule.

[BREEDERS’ CUP 2013: Fields with DRF odds and comments]

Wise Dan won last year’s Mile at odds of  9-5 and would’ve gone postward a much shorter price Saturday had the Oct. 5 Shadwell Turf Mile never happened. Heavy rain at Keeneland forced the Shadwell to be switched from grass to Polytrack, and Wise Dan, breaking from a wide post position and losing ground on both turns, could not run down pacesetting Silver Max, suffering his first loss since the Stephen Foster in June 2012. Wise Dan ran well enough in defeat, but his loss punctured a shell of invincibility that had grown during his nine-race winning streak.

Wise Dan, one of the late Breeders’ Cup ship-ins, wasn’t scheduled to arrive here until Tuesday, but his Shadwell conqueror, Silver Max, shipped early and has logged two dirt workouts at Santa Anita. Silver Max – trained by Dale Romans, who won the 2011 Mile with Court Vision -  was making his synthetic-surface debut in the Shadwell and is a far more accomplished horse on turf, but he is a habitual front-runner who must dodge a compromising speed duel with Obviously. The two drew side by side, in posts 3 an 4, with Obviously getting the better outside post.

“If you’re a speed horse, you usually want to be drawn outside the other speed,” said trainer Mike Mitchell.

Obviously set the pace in the 2012 Mile before fading to third, and Mitchell said jockey Joe Talamo will make a beeline for the front end Saturday. Bright Thought, unraced since March 16 because of a small broken bone in his lower leg, lacks the raw speed of Obviously, but is a speed horse in his own right, and breaks from post 6.

No Jet Lag, currently the leading turf miler in California, drew the rail, while He Be Fire N Ice, a closing second behind No Jet Lag in the Oct. 5 City of Hope Mile on this course, breaks from post 7. Za Approval, who has finished second to both Wise Dan and Obviously this year, drew post 10, with Silentio, another Californian, in post 2.

Breeders’ Cup Mile
Purse: $2 million; one mile; turf; Grade 1
PP, Horse, Jockey, morning-line odds
1. No Jet Lag (M. Smith), 8-1
2. Silentio (R. Bejarano), 20-1
3. Silver Max (R. Albarado), 5-1
4. Obviously (J. Talamo), 10-1
5. Olympic Glory (R. Hughes), 4-1
6. Bright Thought (J. Leparoux), 20-1
7. He Be Fire N Ice (V. Espinoza), 15-1
8. Wise Dan (J. Velazquez), 1-1
9. Cristoforo Columbo (R. Moore), 15-1
10. Za Approval (J. Rosario), 15-1
Post time: Saturday, 7:40 p.m. Eastern

EddySealy More than 1 year ago
The Europeans will win this race hands down
Perl More than 1 year ago
On second thought I could easily see Wise Dan getting bet down to even money. This horse hasn't lost a turf race in two years. I could see myself singling him though there is a longshot that strikes my fancy.
Jd Staton More than 1 year ago
when they make morning line odds why couldnt all horses start at no odds and let the money coming in determined the odds. i know the money in the pools makes the final odds but why start any
Mark D More than 1 year ago
No speed duel with develope. Silver Max does not mind rating. And Romans will instruct the jockey to do so. Just like he did with the alledged speed freak Little Mike in last years turf. That and now Obviously seems to have lost some luster and doesn't strike fear in the other rivals...so it will be percieved whomever is sitting second or third will have the garded spot by a tiring Obviously. Its possible that Obviously steals it....but for my $$$ I will take No Jet Lag with the ground saving trip and the healthy odds. He is a good horse for course.
EnthusiastOfAll More than 1 year ago
This was already going to be an extremely hot pace with Silver Max, Obviously and Bright Thought....the fact that they all drew so close together just exacerbates it. Sorry to be boring but this is a two horse race.
Guy John More than 1 year ago
Robbie's instructions will be to gun to the front and see what happens; therefore, we're going to see a ridiculously hot pace. I like a price here - Za Approval cutting back from 1 1/8 flying late with Joel up. I like him over SI, OG and WD.
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
Wise Dan is your only single pick........
rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
Silver Max, Obviously. Draw right next to each other ouch. Suicide speed duel. Might get closer who here comes from the clouds that might be your winner,if not Dan
Lawrence Macselwiney More than 1 year ago
Even money is a joke. John white may have been a good three point shooter in his day, but thats a bad morning line. Wise Dan 8 to 5 Olympic Glory 2 to 1 Silver Max 3rd choice at 10 to 1. No jet Lag 8 to 1 and the winner.
Lawrence Macselwiney More than 1 year ago
sorry reverse the orders of odds. Silver Max 4th Choice at 10 to 1.
EnthusiastOfAll More than 1 year ago
I actually think all of these Morning Line odds look short, across the board. Don't have the time or the inclination to actually do the math but just a general observation. People are liking No Jet Lag as the trendy upset pick, interesting. I will have to take a second look, but I'd be surprised if Wise Dan or Olympic Glory don't finish well ahead of the rest. Not a great betting race I don't think.
Mick Herman More than 1 year ago
Yeah, 8-5 at the lowest. I like wise dan but even money?
Sheri Berkowitz Whalen More than 1 year ago
Yeah, Dan was an absolute gift at 9-5 last year, and he faced a tougher field (i.e. Animal Kingdom) than he will on Saturday. To me he was as much a mortal lock as Groupie Doll and Royal Delta. 1:31 and change!
gallopingtom More than 1 year ago
No way wise Dan should be even money. 2-1, 8-5. Who's making these odd?
David N More than 1 year ago
Jon White, the track odds maker. Probably a little short but wont be that far higher.
Perl More than 1 year ago
Agreed it's too low.
Electrocutionst More than 1 year ago
It's not what the public thinks the odds should be, it's what the line maker thinks the public will make the horse at post time. Even money is right.
Lawrence Macselwiney More than 1 year ago
and we say around 9 to 5
Electrocutionst More than 1 year ago
Public will make him 1-1
EnthusiastOfAll More than 1 year ago
There is no way Wise Dan is 1-1. He'll be closer to 2-1 than 1-1. And if he is 1-1 then Olympic Glory would have to be a lot higher than 4-1.
Hail No More than 1 year ago
If not 3-5, 4-5 tops..