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Patrick McGoey, the defending champion, won the live-money Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge again last weekend, betting his entire bankroll in the final race to surpass the eventual second-place finisher, Christian Hellmers – who finished second in the 2011 tournament as well.
The highly improbable repeat performance netted McGoey, a resident of New Orleans, $255,341 in winnings, including the $170,000 first-place prize. Hellmers took home $154,525, including his bankroll at the end of the contest.
“The odds of Patrick capturing lightning in a bottle for the second straight year were astronomical,” said Ken Kirchner, Breeders’ Cup simulcasting consultant and the tournament’s administrator. “It’s like a team winning the Super Bowl and beating the same opponent twice on a last-second hail Mary pass with no time on the clock.”
McGoey was once again trailing in the contest going into the last race, the Classic. He bet $7,000 to win on Fort Larned and a $200 cold exacta on Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man to pass Hellmers in the last race, collecting $85,000 in winnings with the two bets.
Last year, also trailing going into the last race, McGoey bet his bankroll on Drosselmeyer to win the Classic. The winning bet allowed him to pass Hellmers in that contest as well.
Held for the fourth time this year, the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge is a live-bankroll tournament requiring a $10,000 buy-in. However, several of the spots in the tournament are awarded to players who win lead-up tournaments. A total of 138 players participated in the tournament this year.
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I estimate the odds of Patrick and Christian finishing 1st and 2nd in two consecutive BCBC competitions at somewhere around 1 in 100 million. And, this is certainly an underestimate of the probability of the same two individuals finishing 1st and 2nd in consecutive contests. I just assumed that each version of the contest had 100 participants and we know for certain that there were more than a hundred players. It is mind blowing to say the least.
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Runner-up in the Santa Anita Oaks, IOTAPA drops in class and shortens to a sprint with sharp recent works on the BHP surface. Oaks winner Beholder returned to finish second in the Kentucky Oaks; Oaks third Fiftyshadesofhay was one of the favorites Friday in the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. The point is, IOTAPA faced a good bunch last out. She specifically targeted this race, gets pace to run at, loves the track, and can mow them down as the favorite. She must catch two good front-runners.
