10/29/2012 11:50AM

Breeders' Cup 2012 entries, odds


Breeders' Cup video, prep race recaps

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Friday, November 2, 2012

Odds and comments by Brad Free. Horses listed in order of handicapper's preference.

Juvenile Sprint
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Purse: $500,000 , 6 furlongs

Super Ninety Nine B. Baffert M. Garcia Sharp debut, worked super since, good fit in allowance-caliber stake 8-5
Merit Man R. Hess, Jr. P.Valenzuela Good stakes win over track, jockey P. Valenzuela rode first BC race 1984 2-1
South Floyd D. O'Neill R. Dominguez Contender in race that lost pizzazz when fast fillies went elsewhere 4-1
Sweet Shirley Mae W. Ward J. Rosario Posted sharp workouts following gate scratch G1 Frizette Oct. 6 BEL 8-1
Ceiling Kitty T. Dascombe J. Velazquez Longshot Euro filly owned, bred by Betfair founder Andrew Black 12-1
Hightail W. Lukas R. Maragh Eight-start maiden curiously spotted, shortens from route to sprint 12-1
Hazardous C. O'Callaghan E. Maldonado Earned $18k first-off-claim win, giving back most of it BC entry fees 15-1

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Purse: $500,000 , 1 3/4 miles

Worth Repeating M. Machowsky M. Pedroza Bargain $62.5k claim sharp now, won a SA dirt marathon 2011 4-1
Eldaafer D. Alvarado R. Santana Jr. Won this race 2010 at CD, well-bred gelding going strong age 7 9-2
Not Abroad M. Petro N. Petro Jr. Romped in Maryland-bred stakes, enters in peak form 5-1
Atigun K. McPeek M. Smith BEL shipper dropping from G1, lone 3yo still has upside 6-1
Jaycito B. Baffert J. Talamo It turns out this N2X-eligible colt has always been over-rated 6-1
Commander T. Taylor M. Gutierrez Hastings Park shipper with speed, intriguing longshot 10-1
Grassy M. Jones G. Gomez Will run all day, but will he run on dirt? All 19 starts on turf 12-1
Juniper Pass T. Bell L. Dettori Gelded in summer, G2 winner set for best third start back 12-1
Fame And Glory A. O'Brien J. Spencer A stayer in Europe, trying dirt surface for the first time 15-1
Balladry E. Harty J. Graham Last by a long way final prep, but has run races that fit here 20-1
Romp K. Mulhall J. Rosario Always been a cut below this class level, 4-for-53 career 20-1
Calidoscopio G. Frankel A. Gryder South American 9yo makes U.S. debut following four-month layoff 30-1
Almudena J. Suarez J. Valdivia Jr. South American mare earned reputation in Peru, these are tougher 30-1
Sense of Purpose D. Weld P. Smullen Has not done a thing in three starts since July 2011 30-1

Juvenile Fillies Turf
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Purse: $1,000,000 , 1 mile

Sky Lantern R. Hannon R. Hughes G1 win-and-in heroine in Ireland, class of field U.S. debut 2-1
Watsdachances C. Brown J. Castellano Won on soft, firm and yielding, crushed BEL G3 last out 4-1
Spring Venture M. Casse P. Husbands Three-for-three vs. dubious WO competition, class test here 6-1
Waterway Run R. Beckett L. Dettori G3 winner UK been showing speed 7f, two turns is new 8-1
Flashy Ways R. Baltas J. Talamo $100k BC supplement after clever stakes win SA turf, tough post 10-1
Tara From the Cape T. Pletcher J. Velazquez Returns to turf following modest fourth on KEE Polytrack 10-1
Sustained D. Romans J. Rosario Runner-up roughly run BEL G3, improving each start, stuck outside 12-1
Flotilla M. Delzangles C. Lemaire "Live" longshot was compromised by traffic in Longchamp G1 12-1
Kitten's Point G. Motion R. Bejarano Took the long way home both starts, G3 runner-up KEE 20-1
Moonwalk D. Romans C. Lanerie Popped $74 KEE win-and-in G3, race appeared to be weak 20-1
Summer of Fun G. Weaver R. Dominguez Third head on wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE 30-1
Oscar Party W. Catalano K. Desormeaux Fourth head on wire in blanket-finish G3 at KEE 30-1
The Gold Cheongsam J. Noseda W. Buick UK shipper won 3 of 7, unestablished vs. top company 30-1
Nancy O C. Costigan D. Moran Significant trouble most recent turf try, eased on dirt in last 30-1

Also Eligible:

Infanta Branca A. O'Brien R. Moore Sibling to 1998 Derby prospect Lil's Lad, tough to like off Euro form 30-1
Moulin de Mougin R. Mandella C. Nakatani Ran to hillside pedigree in maiden win, should stay a mile 30-1

Juvenile Fillies
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Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/16 miles

Executiveprivilege B. Baffert R. Bejarano Looked like star going 5-for-5, subsequent works imply vulnerability 2-1
Dreaming of Julia T. Pletcher J. Velazquez Went fast early and slow late in gritty G1 win, now tries two turns 5-2
Beholder R. Mandella G. Gomez Likely pacesetter from rail, would have been favored Juvenile Sprint 7-2
Kauai Katie T. Pletcher R. Napravnik Unbeaten NY sprints, rationed speed last, projects for first-over trip 4-1
Spring in the Air M. Casse P. Husbands Top filly on synthetic and turf, conventional dirt whole new world 10-1
Broken Spell W. Lukas R. Maragh Breeders’ Cup incomplete without Lukas, longshot late-runner 15-1
Almost an Angel W. Ward J. Rosario Off board both graded stakes, longshot chance if pace collapses 20-1
Renee's Queen E. Guillot C. Nakatani Recovered from autumn illness, turf-synth filly working well dirt 30-1

Filly & Mare Turf
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Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/4 miles, turf

The Fugue J. Gosden W. Buick Hotshot G1 winner in UK targeted this all season, Euros strong here 5-2
Ridasiyna M. Delzangles C. Lemaire Top-class import from France arrives with outstanding credentials 7-2
Marketing Mix T. Proctor G. Gomez Runner-up Beverly D in summer, aided by “rabbit” winning G1 in fall 5-1
Nahrain R. Varian L. Dettori Narrow miss this race last year, returned to form BEL "yielding" 8-1
Zagora C. Brown J. Castellano Briefly opened up in Flower Bowl, got caught, distance limitations? 8-1
I'm A Dreamer D. Simcock R. Hughes Scored summer upset in Beverly D , okay fourth in recent BEL bog 10-1
Nereid J. Shirreffs J. Leparoux 2012 was bust for good filly until recent wake-up, runner-up to 'Mix 12-1
In Lingerie T. Pletcher J. Velazquez First try on grass after dominating Spinster on Poly, improving 3yo 15-1
Lady of Shamrock J. Sadler M. Smith Facing older fillies and mares for first time, following 10-week layoff 15-1
Up A. O'Brien R. Moore G2-caliber Irish filly tried these in Beverly D, was not good enough 20-1
Star Billing J. Shirreffs V. Espinoza Inconsistent filly has run races that fit for minor award here 30-1
Stormy Lucy F. Lucarelli M. Pedroza Longshot nibbler all summer and fall in California, faces tall order 30-1

Ladies' Classic
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Purse: $2,000,000 , 1 1/8 miles

Royal Delta W. Mott M. Smith Dominated her final prep, legitimate favorite to repeat this race 2-1
Awesome Feather C. Brown J. Sanchez 10-for-10, earned giant speed figure last out in non-graded stake 4-1
My Miss Aurelia S. Asmussen C. Nakatani Six-for-six filly beat Questing with weight break, working super SA 9-2
Questing K. McLaughlin I. Ortiz New York dirt terror missed while conceding 7 lbs., now weight-for-age 5-1
Love and Pride T. Pletcher J. Velazquez Circumstances to order SA & BEL, is she really lucky or really good? 6-1
Include Me Out R. Ellis J. Talamo Queen of California was compromised by pace, bias her final prep 8-1
Grace Hall A. Dutrow J. Castellano Cakewalked vs. Hoosier Park creampuffs, good 3yo faces tougher 12-1
Class Included J. Penney R. Baze One-two 16 starts Emerald Downs & Hastings Park, big work this track 20-1

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Odds and comments by Mike Watchmaker. Horses listed in order of handicapper's preference.

Juvenile Turf, Purse: $1 million, 1 mile, turf
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Dundonnell R. Charlton J. Doyle Won a Group 3 two back over the subsequent winner of the Royal Lodge 4-1
Artigiano M. Al Zarooni L. Dettori Improving colt was a good second in the Royal Lodge last time, his best yet 5-1
Noble Tune C. Brown R. Dominguez Showed a most impressive turn of foot in Pilgrim; won debut on firm turf 6-1
George Vancouver A. O'Brien R. Moore Hit the board in Group 1's in two of his last three; inconsistency is the issue 8-1
Balance the Books C. Brown J. Leparoux Beyers are light, but he used a big late kick to win graded stakes in last two 10-1
Gervinho C. Gaines R. Bejarano Really liked his closing kick to win the local prep for this; is not out of this 10-1
Fantastic Moon J. Noseda K. Fallon Was favored when fifth in Royal Lodge; previous wins say he can rebound 12-1
Joha M. Maker J. Castellano Nailed by 'Books' two back; flattered that one with his Gr. 1 Poly win at Kee 12-1
Know More D. O'Neill G. Gomez Last two not as good as his stakes winning debut; synth form says he'll turf 12-1
Dry Summer J. Mullins J. Talamo Forget his last; he ran well winning two back at this distance in only turf try 15-1
Brown Almighty T. Ice K. Desormeaux Hasn't run a bad one yet; faces tougher, but is far from a hopeless longshot 20-1
I'm Boundtoscore T. Rankin S. Rook Upset winner of the Summer Stakes has also run well each start; deep race 20-1
Lines of Battle A. O'Brien R. Hughes His Racing Post Ratings are okay, but his one Group stakes try was lacking 20-1
Summit County D. Romans C. Nakatani Wasn't badly beaten in turf stakes in his last two, but that won't cut it here 30-1

Also Eligible:

Rising Legend J. Sadler J. Rosario Scored in his last two in England; been in weaker races than the other Euros 20-1

Filly & Mare Sprint, Purse: $1 million, 7 furlongs
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Groupie Doll W. Bradley R. Maragh Was always good, but has dominated in last four with blinkers; hard to stop Even
Turbulent Descent T. Pletcher J. Velazquez Getting back to Cali will have to help; her last two in NY were at best so so 7-2
Dust and Diamonds S. Asmussen J. Leparoux Like top one, she's on a win streak; her Gallant Bloom last out was best yet 6-1
Musical Romance W. Kaplan J. Leyva Won this race last year; all three of her wins so far this year were in Florida 8-1
Rumor R. Mandella M. Smith Her overall form is good; facing tougher than she is accustomed to, though 15-1
Switch J. Sadler G. Gomez Second in this the last two years, but recent races say she's past her prime 15-1
Strike the Moon M. Trombetta J. Lezcano Runner up to Groupie Doll in the TCA, but a distant runner up; overmatched 20-1
Teddy's Promise R. Ellis J. Talamo Can improve second off layoff, but her best efforts were several starts back 20-1
Belle of the Hall T. Albertrani I. Ortiz Jr. Got her shot here by beating a filly last time who desperately needs a rest 30-1
Great Hot A. C. Avila E. Maldonado Been a while since her last win, or since her last stakes-class Beyer Fig 30-1

Dirt Mile, Purse: $1 million, 1 mile
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Shackleford D. Romans R. Dominguez Second in Kelso off layoff, yet seems below his terrific early season form 5-2
Emcee K. McLaughlin A. Garcia On better part of track in Forego win; first start at distance and two turns 3-1
Jersey Town B. Tagg J. Castellano Strong score in the Kelso; do wonder if he can pair up big efforts like that 4-1
Fed Biz B. Baffert J. Talamo Disappointed at Hoosier, but is certainly capable of better; a big threat 5-1
Rail Trip R. Ellis J. Valdivia Jr. At this point, this old pro might find this distance right in his wheelhouse 8-1
John Scott C. Gaines V. Espinoza Hits hard, but might be a cut below and it appears he prefers synthetics 10-1
Delegation M. Casse P. Husbands Big fig win last time was due to uncontested lead; this will be his dirt debut 15-1
Tapizar S. Asmussen C. Nakatani Has had some good days at SA, but his last was so poor it's hard to ignore 15-1
Second City B. Cecil M. Gutierrez Main claim to fame is a Derby win at Hastings. Overmatched? Just a little. 30-1

Turf Sprint, Purse: $1 million, 6.5 furlongs, turf
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Unbridled's Note S. Asmussen C. Nakatani Won the local prep for this at distance, over course; fig was low, though 4-1
California Flag B. Koriner J. Talamo Downhill specialist won this race over the course in '09; away since April 9-2
Bridgetown T. Pletcher J. Velazquez Good turf sprinter for a while and back in top form; downhill is the question 6-1
Camp Victory M. Mitchell J. Leparoux Downhilling really isn't his game, but he won a Grade 1 three back and is fit 6-1
Corporate Jungle C. Brown J. Castellano Chased Wise Dan in his last two and clearly, there are none like that here 10-1
Next Question M. Trombetta R. Dominguez In career form, but this is a better group than the one he beat at Woodbine 10-1
Great Attack W. Ward J. Rosario Off since May; has done his best work in turf sprints at shorter distances 15-1
Mizdirection M. Puype M. Smith Another coming off a long layoff, but is 2 for 2 over the course; maybe 15-1
Starspangledbanner A. O'Brien J. O'Brien One good effort off long layoff is sandwiched by two poor ones; tough read 15-1
Chosen Miracle J. Hollendorfer M. Garcia Runner up to top one last time out has high early speed, but modest Beyers 20-1
Great Mills S. Asmussen R. Bejarano Has been close in a few meaningful races, but his wins come in easier spots 20-1
Reneesgotzip P. Miller G. Gomez She's fast, and being 3 for 3 on synthetic, she could turf; not impossible 20-1
Upgrade M. Nihei R. Maragh Ran okay in his last two turf sprint attempts in NY; others just look better 20-1
Tale of a Champion K. Mulhall T. Baze Wasn't beaten that far in the local prep, but wasn't up to the task, either 30-1
  Also Eligible:        
Global Power T. Amoss P. Valenzuela Sports decent form in listed stakes; this is tougher than what he's used to 30-1
Starspangled Heat B. Abrams C. Nakatani Has lots of downhill course experience, but in entry-level allowance races 30-1

Juvenile, Purse: $2 million, 1 1/16 miles
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Power Broker B. Baffert R. Bejarano Romped in Gr. 1 prep over track in dirt bow, but with the grain of speed bias 2-1
Shanghai Bobby T. Pletcher R. Napravnik Has been crushing his opponents in New York and should route; obvious 5-2
Title Contender B. Baffert M. Garcia Only a maiden winner, but it was a fast score over track with blinkers on 5-1
Speak Logistics E. Plesa Jr. A. Serpa Stepping way up, but he did gallop in two starts since getting blinkers on 8-1
Capo Bastone J. Sadler J. Rosario Compromised by a speed track when third in the Front Runner; intriguing 10-1
Dynamic Sky M. Casse L. Contreras Second to Joha at Kee last time; this will be his first ever attempt on dirt 12-1
Fortify K. McLaughlin R. Dominguez Will have to do better than his flat third in the Champagne last time out 12-1
Monument J. Sadler J. Talamo Comes off clear win at distance over track, but vs. Cal breds in slow time 15-1
He's Had Enough D. O'Neill M. Gutierrez Had enough trouble in last, but lacks speed, and is also an unknown on dirt 20-1

Turf, Purse: $3 million, 1 1/2 miles, turf
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Point of Entry S. McGaughey J. Velazquez Won five straight, the last three Gr. 1's; top U.S. hope ends Euro dominance 2-1
St Nicholas Abbey A. O'Brien J. O'Brien Won this last year; can forgive Arc flop, but some prior efforts were just okay 7-2
Shareta A. Fabre C. Lemaire Also found wanting on deep going in Arc; prior form sharp; strong threat 5-1
Little Mike D. Romans R. Dominguez His big wins this year all came with easy early leads; he won't get one here 12-1
Trailblazer Y. Ikee Y. Take Solid second in U.S. debut and added distance helps; stepping up, though 12-1
Treasure Beach A. O'Brien J. Spencer Gave top one a run last time on deep footing; firm turf suits top one better 12-1
Dullahan D. Romans J. Rosario Has run okay on turf, but has yet to win on it; needs a synthetic BC event 15-1
Slim Shadey S. Callaghan G. Gomez Won the local prep for this, but this is just an exponentially tougher race 15-1
Cogito D. O'Neill L. Dettori Disappointed in U.S. bow; reports have said he'd be more effective on dirt 20-1
Kindergarden Kid P. Miller J. Leparoux No match for top one two starts back with the better trip; needs softer spot 20-1
Turbo Compressor T. Pletcher J. Bravo Tried rating, and finished second to 'Shadey' last time out; in over his head 20-1
Optimizer D. W. Lukas J. Court Improved dramatically in his last two, but not enough to contend here 30-1

Sprint, Purse: $1.5 million, 6 furlongs
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Coil B. Baffert M. Garcia Solid win in the local prep for this and rarely runs poorly; will be a handful 4-1
Amazombie W. Spawr M. Smith Won this last year, but his last was a rare dud; formidable if able to rebound 9-2
Capital Account B. Baffert D. Flores Fast closing, narrowly beaten second in the local prep; wants more ground 6-1
The Lumber Guy M. Hushion J. Velazquez If he was uncoupled in the Vosburgh, he'd have paid off at 20-1, not 2-1 6-1
Fast Bullet B. Baffert J. Talamo Obviously talented, but away a year and never ran in a stakes; I don't get it 10-1
Jimmy Creed R. Mandella G. Gomez Third in the same race the top three come out of; can be in the mix again 10-1
Poseidon's Warrior R. Reid Jr. I. Ortiz Jr. A big surprise two back, he didn't run as well last time; jury is out on him 12-1
Sum of the Parts T. Amoss J. Leparoux Versatile, and in career form, but needs a big move forward to contend 12-1
Smiling Tiger J. Bonde R. Dominguez There was a time when he'd be a major threat in this; looks past his prime 15-1
Gantry R. Faucheux J. Castellano Good in easier races, but he has never been effective at this high a level 20-1
Trinniberg S. Parbhoo W. Martinez His stakes wins came with uncontested early leads; no easy leads here 20-1
Hamazing Destiny D. W. Lukas J. Rosario Give him credit, he's been punching away for years; he's a Gr. 3 horse now 30-1
Justin Phillip S. Asmussen R. Bejarano At his best on a wet track, which he isn't going to get at SA this time of year 30-1
Boxeur des Rues D. O'Neill M. Gutierrez Not fast enough or good enough; just doesn't belong in the Breeders' Cup 50-1

Mile, Purse: $2 million, 1 mile, turf
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Wise Dan C. Lopresti J. Velazquez Has dominated since switching back to turf three starts ago; tough to beat 8-5
Excelebration A. O'Brien J. O'Brien If not for the mighty Frankel, he'd be on a big win streak; top Euro threat 5-2
Moonlight Cloud F. Head T. Jarnet Capable Euro filly runs against males regularly, so this is not a new thing 5-1
Obviously M. Mitchell J. Talamo Impressive how he has blossomed of late; risky to sell this speedball short 6-1
Mr. Commons J. Shirreffs B. Blanc Has ability, but even when he's on his game, his will to win is a question 12-1
Animal Kingdom H. G. Motion R. Bejarano An odd spot for the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner; first start since February 15-1
Jeranimo M. Pender G. Gomez Pops up with an occasional big effort, but he's generally not good enough 15-1
Suggestive Boy R. McAnally M. Smith Will appreciate the return to turf; must significantly improve his U.S. form 20-1
Willcox Inn M. Stidham J. Graham Soundly beaten second to 'Dan' at Kee; has never been as good as these 30-1

Classic, Purse: $5 million, 1 1/4 miles
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Game On Dude B. Baffert R. Bejarano In top form and loves the track, but is just a little bit shaky at the distance 5-2
Ron The Greek W. Mott J. Lezcano Won the Big Cap at distance over track last March, but last outing was dull 5-1
Flat Out W. Mott J. Rosario This isn't at Belmont, his favorite track; beaten chalk in this race last year 6-1
Fort Larned I. Wilkes B. Hernandez Will forgive his last; his Whitney two back was strong; big rebound threat 6-1
Mucho Macho Man K. Ritvo M. Smith Was best in defeat in Woodward; not sure if he's quite good enough 8-1
Richard's Kid D. O'Neill G. Gomez Compromised by speed bias last time, added distance helps; dangerous 10-1
Nonios J. Hollendorfer M. Pedroza Game second to Dude in Awesome Again; this field is very deep, though 12-1
To Honor and Serve W. Mott J. Velazquez Has looked top class at various times, but has been too erratic this season 12-1
Alpha K. McLaughlin R. Dominguez Came up empty in the Pa. Derby; looks to be a cut below these, anyway 20-1
Pool Play M. Casse M. Mena His two dirt starts were both graded wins; in very tough here, however 20-1
Brilliant Speed T. Albertrani J. Alvarado Third in last year's Belmont, but he's a turf horse, and is off form, too 30-1
Handsome Mike D. O'Neill M. Gutierrez Upset winner of Pa. Derby, and he would be a much bigger surprise here 30-1