11/01/2011 10:13AM

Breeders' Cup 2011 chat with The Wizard


Michael Kipness, AKA The Wizard, hosted a Breeders' Cup chat on Wednesday night from Louisville. Here are the highlights:

Check out The Wizard's Breeders' Cup Stakes Package.

On Uncle Mo being ready for the Classic:
It's awfully tough to expect a 3-year-old to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles against older, proven horses at the distance. The key to his success will be if he can relax early either on the front or stalking. But in essence I feel he will be overbet and extremely vulnerable.

On European shippers:
This crop of European horses is not as strong as in past years. But in the longer races they have an advantage.

On Stopshoppingmaria in the Juvenile Turf Filly:
The best chance that she has to win the Juvenile Turf Filly is to put her right on the lead because that is her preferred style. She is bred to handle the grass. She does face pressure from fillies who are better prepared to win this race.

On Shackleford in the Dirt Mile:
Shackleford is a bit over the top. I think that he's run so hard so many times this year that he's not coming into the race as well as did for the Preakness or even the Haskell. I just think there is too much pace cutting back to a flat mile that he will be run off his feet early by horses like The Factor and find himself further off the pace than what he's used to. If that happens I don't see Shackleford finishing strong.

On So You Think's chances in the Classic:
If you are looking for a sneaky selection that has the merits, you might like So You Think. His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, who in previous years was not reliable in stakes races in the U.S., has had five winners in graded stakes out of 11 in the U.S. So You Think's trainer also adds blinkers, which is an unusual move for him. He clearly loves the distance. The other factor with So You Think is he gets first-time lasix, which is a powerful angle with euro shippers. I give So You Think a very good chance to compete favorably in the Classic.

On Turbulent Descent's layoff:
She has proven to run well fresh. Since her easy win in the Test in Saratoga, she has not missed a beat in her training. Turbulent's works at Hollywood have been outstanding, but that doesn't mean I like her to win.

On Euroears in the Sprint:
The key to his success is the break right out of the gate. If he breaks slow and he has to be hard used to try for the lead, he could be done early. The only way that Euroears is extremely dangerous is if he breaks sharply, takes the lead and is not pressured. Then there would be no doubt he could go wire to wire. the rail sprinting in past Breeders' Cup races has been a death trap but Euroears has improved so much for Bob Baffert that if everything falls in place for him early, he is very dangerous.

Are there any Animal Kingdoms in this stakes package?
A winner like Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby is far and few between. But I do have several horses that I like that will be between 5-1 and 10-1. In particular I have a horse that I picked second that I'm interested in making a small win bet on because she could go off 20-1 or more. Even though she's not on top, I don't want a horse like that to win and not there are very few very short price horses on both BC cards and the two that will probably be the biggest favorites are horses that I don't have first or second. And one of them I don't have in first four.

On The Turf Sprint:
This is a race that is very wide open. From a betting standpoint, I am not interested in tackling the race itself as a wagering opportunity, but more as part of a pick 3 or pick 4.

On the setup for the Marathon:
Birdrun will no doubt try for the lead, and if he's able to slow it down can go wire to wire. But one of my three crystal best bets is in this race.

On California shippers:
I tend to downgrade their chances a bit unless they've proven themselves on conventional dirt. A lot of these horses don't leave Southern California and keep facing eachother without ever really showing they can ship out and tackle horses with similar class levels. Churchill is a quirky track especially for a horse that hasn't had a good workout there yet.

On Royal Delta vs. Plum Pretty in the Ladies' Classic:
Plum Pretty will have to stalk the pace right outside Ask The Moon, who will no doubt go to the lead because that's her best game. If Plum Pretty can get by Ask The Moon at the top of the stretch, she can be very dangerous. But Royal Delta will probably sit the better trip because she gets pace to run at. And there's no doubt that she will be finishing strong the longer she goes. Between the two, I'd prefer Royal Delta.

On Giant Ryan's victory in the Vosburgh:
In the Vosbergh he benefitted greatly by Euroears being checked at the start. And running over a wet track, where he is 3-3 lifetime over, it didn't hurt that the track favored speed. Giant Ryan is vulnerable and will go off at too short a price.

On Goldikova's chances in the Mile:
Goldikova is capable of winning anything. She's lost a couple of races this year but that means nothing to me because if she gets a clean trip on a course she loves, you know she's going to fire a huge shot in the stretch. There's no doubt the two best milers in history are two filles -- Miesque and Goldikova. They are the two best milers I've ever seen. Goldikova is even better than Miesque. But that doesn't mean I picked Goldikova to win.

On Blacky the Bull's chances in the Juvenile Sprint:
I like the No. 3 post position for Blackey the Bull. The key to success is the ability to make a perfectly timed move free of trouble and hope the speed backs up when the odds-on favorite, Secret Circle, swoops on by at the top of the stretch. I don't think that he's quite up to the task of beating the favorite. But the race dynamics and the possible outcome could work in her favor at a huge price.

On The Factor's chances in the Dirt Mile:
I think The Factor will run better if he can relax and not get caught up in a duel. Blistering fractions cooked him in his last start.