10/25/2012 1:18PM

Breeders Crown: Attacking the $100,000 Pick Fours at Woodbine

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There are two $100,000 guaranteed pick fours offered on the Breeders Crown card at Woodbine Racetrack on Saturday, October 27. The first sequence (Race 4) is littered with chalk. If they all win the payout will be miniscule. But one upset could change everything. Race 8 kicks off the second more difficult option. There are plenty of live longshot options available. Remember, you can play for .20-cents at Woodbine and make the play more affordable.

Race 4 – 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY PACE

There are really three legitimate fillies with a chance in this event. (4) AMERICAN JEWEL, (3) ROMANTIC MOMENT and (1) ECONOMY TERROR are the standouts on form and ability. Not to say that another one of these gals couldn’t step up, but it would be a surprise if that happened. American Jewel gets my top call because she has put in some of her best efforts while north of the border and I truly believes she has the most raw ability.

[BREEDERS CROWN: Get PPs, watch analysis video and replays, read latest news]

Race 5 – 2-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT

Sometimes you have to roll the dice against the favorite and this looks like a good spot to do that. In my head I know that (8) TO DREAM ON could be a special filly that has more in the tank than what we have seen thus far. But on paper she does not stand head and shoulders over this field. (1) HANDOVER BELLE almost defeated her at The Red Mile when she broke from apparently stepping on her flip-flop shoe. Is she the best filly in this race? No. Can she win at a nice price? Yes. (6) BEE A MAGICIAN has been nearly perfect while staying in Canada all year. I wouldn’t even think of tossing her off my tickets. (5) FASHION ATHENA may have found herself at The Red Mile. We will find out tonight if that effort was for real or an aberration.

Race 6 – 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT

There is no mystery in this race. (1) CHECK ME OUT is clearly the one to beat and I’m not going to attempt to find a foe that can defeat her. Yeah, she lost last time, but I will give her a bye with the thinking that this race was her major goal. I’ll be keying her on every ticket I play.

Race 7 – 2-YEAR-OLD COLT PACE

(3) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS has proven to be a step or two faster than his competition. He is a legitimate single on at least some of your tickets, but often enough with 2-year-olds, another horse or two is aiming for the Crown and has a big effort on tap. So while I’ll be keying him on one ticket, I will also play a smaller wager with some savers that could be live. (2) ROCKIN AMADEUS is royally bred but hasn’t put it all together yet. That said, I felt his elimination effort was one of his best races in some time. (7) APPRENTICE HANOVER is the only one signed on that has proven to be fast enough on paper to contend with the top choice. (9) URBANITE HANOVER is winless on the year and certainly has his work cut out for him from post nine, but his last two efforts were solid and he was trapped while under a hold last week.

The Plays:

$1 Ticket: 1,3,4 – 1,5,6,8 – 1 – 3 = $12

.20-cent Ticket: 1,3,4 – 1,5,6,8 – 1 – 2,3,7,9 = $9.60

 

RACE 8 – 2-YEAR-OLD COLT TROT

(8) ROYALTY FOR LIFE really impressed me last week. For a rookie trotter to show early speed and battle gamely on the rim, he has to have plenty of talent. I was on board from post 9, but scratches have helped him move into post 7. (2) WHEELING N DEALIN defeated my top choice last week with a slightly better trip. At 8-for-8 it is hard to knock his ability and impossible to leave him off any tickets.

RACE 9 – 3-YEAR-OLD COLT PACE

I have to go with (10) MEL MARA. The post certainly won’t help, but he is simply the sharpest horse in the race and I have no doubt that driver Ron Pierce will have him well-placed. (3) ESCAPE THE NEWS may or may not be good enough to compete with this group. What I know is that he was blocked with pace last week in just his first start for trainer Ron Burke. Improvement is possible. (5) PANTHER HANOVER missed plenty of time and still posted a game effort in his elimination. (4) HESTON BLUE CHIP raced well in his elimination but did get a perfect trip. I have enough respect for him that I can’t completely toss him out. (7) SWEET LOU elected to come from off the pace last week. I think we’ll see new tactics tonight.

RACE 10 – OPEN MARE PACE

(11) DROP THE BALL gets my narrow call. She has a special turn of speed and should be a fair price (maybe 5-2?). (2) ROCKLAMATION is the forgotten mare of this group. She actually leads in earnings this year and could lock up divisional honors with a win. (9) REBEKA BAYAMA has been a killer in some of her recent races. The only question is how she will handle the outside draw with the speedy (4) ANNDROVETTE, who will certainly gunning to her inside and could keep going on any day.

RACE 11 – 3-YEAR-OLD COLT TROT

(3) INTIMIDATE won me over in his elimination win. You just don’t see trotters fly home in 26 3/5 very often. Plus his connections put up half of his earnings this year to supplement him for $62,500 to this race. I’m on board! (2) PRESTIDIGITATOR possesses talent but hasn’t put it all together in a big race. Driver Sylvain Filion picked off my top choice for this guy, but that was more of a loyalty decision. I’m using him as a saver.

The Play:

$1 Ticket (2,8 – 3,4,5,7,10 – 2,4,9,11 – 2,3) = $80