07/22/2013 2:24PM

Brad Free: Brad Free's Analysis July 24, 2013


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Brad Free’s Analysis [BEST BET: Taelyns Prince (3rd race)]


1 The runner-up comeback by COTTON'S POINT was flattered when the filly that beat her (Glorious Luck) returned to win a N1X allowance. 'POINT makes her second start back, while facing a potential challenge. She is not quick, and therefore must win this from off the pace. That was not the winning profile opening week when all 13 races at six furlongs were won by front-runners/pressers.TIZ A KISS was a well-bet disappointment in her debut last fall. She reportedly did not have any early speed last year, and her distance pedigree suggests she is unlikely to be any quicker at age 3. Still, she returns from a layoff with good-looking works and she will be finishing. SOPHIE'S SECRET would benefit if the track remains speed-favoring. 'SECRET is quickest of those with experience, and likely to have the lead at least partway. Closer Looks >>
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2 Improving 3-year-olds can be reliable in spring and summer. That is the case with EL SABIOS, who turned into a better racehorse since stretching to two turns. He crushed maidens on synthetic at GG, romped past older winners on dirt at PLN, and arrives at Del Mar in peak form with speed figures good enough to win a $20k claiming route for his age group. Although apprentice rider Irving Orozco won just 1 of 18 opening week, he definitely can ride. CARDIO ROYALE finished second in a good comeback. He still has not won a two-turn race, but finished in the money seven of eight. He will rally from the back of the field. HARDLINER is another "live" shipper. He faced stakes types in the southwest, and is realistically placed in his local debut for $20k. Trainer Peter Miller was 5-for-19 opening week; owners Kirk and Judy Robison were 2-for-7. DRF Picks >>
3 The pick six begins with a $238,499 carryover and a potential single in the first leg. TAELYNS PRINCE finished second in a promising sprint debut that was intended as nothing more than a prep race for two turns. The small-sized juvenile wheels back in 17 days while stretching to a mile. It is a distance he should relish, based on his debut. He was forwardly placed, finished with run, and galloped out strongly after the wire. With an inside draw and tactical speed, he looks like a good thing. His dam Chaposa Springs was a top-class sprinter; 'PRINCE was sired by English Channel. A mile is within reach. SUNNY KAT finished a close fifth behind the top choice. He is by Kitten's Joy, and finished as if he will appreciate two turns. The well-bred first-time starter STATION HOUSE makes his debut for Richard Mandella, who pops every so often with a first-timer in a route (Segway, Taxi Ride). STATION HOUSE is by Rock Hard Ten, out of a dam that produced stakes winner Pamona Ball and four-time winner Jitterbug Ball. Closer Looks >>
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4 STREETS OF HEAVEN is a good 8-year-old, entering this $8k claiming race with just one knock. That is, he runs from off the pace. That style was ineffective in sprints opening week when the track favored speed. It is unknown if the bias will continue the second week. If it pesists, 'HEAVEN is in trouble. But if the bias tempers and the track is fair, 'HEAVEN can win first off the claim by Jorge Periban. A 13-for-48 veteran that won last out from the rail at Hollywood Park, 'HEAVEN's last three starts for $8k produced two wins and a second. If the racetrack continues to favor speed, dropper IRON JOE T coudl be tough despite a negative class drop (claimed last out for $16k). Trainer Cody Autrey won three opening week; IRON JOE T is good enough based on his win two starts back.JIM'S NO PREACHER returns from the Southwest with an up-front running style that was advantageous opening week. He might be ranked too low. Miller trains the Robison-owned front-runnre. BLAKE wheels back 13 days after a good win vs. similar. He does not always run two alike, however. Also-eligible SHEDIAK is first-off-the-claim by Jerry Hollendorfer, with his main guy Rafael Bejarano up. POSITION A is a 7-year-old that has won on this track. DRF Picks >>
5 This maiden-claimer for 2-year-old fillies is impossible. THUNDER BONNET makes her debut for trainer Adam Kitchingman and Edwin Maldonado. A snappy 36-second gate workout Sunday suggests she is on her toes. WICKEDLY SASSY debuts for trainer Dan Hendricks, who does not win often with first-timers. But her works look okay, and she gets a hustling rider in Martin Pedroza. She might be better than the modest works appear. TOM KHA has racing experience, including an okay sixth last out. She drops from maiden-50 to maiden-20. IRISH STREET is bred for speed with some good works. Also-eligible LOVELY INSTINCT figures in the hunt. Wide-open race. Closer Looks >>
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6 SWEET LULU gets tested for class, and two turns, in this good allowance for N2X fillies. She won both starts in stylish manner, though her allowance last out was with a perfect trip. Reportedly built like a two-turn fillyi, she acts like two turns will be good and she continues to sparkle in the morning. The reason Julien Leparoux will ride instead of Rafael Bejarano is because plans originally called for the filly to ship to Saratoga for a stakes. Leparoux would have ridden her at the Spa, but the filly stayed home instead. By then, Bejarano had already given a call to another trainer. The bottom line is the jockey switch is a non-issue; Leparoux has worked 'LULU, who might be a good one. But she gives up a class/seasoning edge to ONDINE, already a winner of two routes and an acceptable third last out in the G2 Hollywood Oaks. She benefits from the drop, inside draw and hot trainer. Bob Baffert went 6-for-18 opening week to lead the standings. BELLA VIAGGIA has won four straight, albeit all sprints. Closer Looks >>
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7 The Wickerr Stakes historically comes up strong; this year is no exception. The good field includes a pair of Group 1 winners from South America, but CORPORATE JUNGLE is the one to beat. His only start this year was a good second in an AP stakes, he scratched from a "yielding" race June 29 at CD to point for this firm-course race. 'JUNGLE is a G3 winner that has flirted with top company in the BC, Shoemaker and Shadwell Miles. Lightly raced (4-for-12) as a 5-year-old, he returns for trainer Tom Proctor, who is on a roll with the likes of Marketing Mix and Wishing Gate. It is a "go" for a good horse. Top-class South American INDY POINTis a a three-time G1 winner in Argentina making his U.S. debut for trainer Richard Mandella. He has worked well; expectations are high that he can reproduce his form. TIGAH won the G3 San Francisco Mile in late April. The improving 5-year-old sneaks into the conditions of this stake, which is restricted to non-winners of a $50k stakes since May 1. Ideal conditions; TIGAH won April 27. CHIPS ALL IN will stretch his distance limits racing one mile, but he is good enough on his best day. WILKINSON finished third in the G1 Shoemaker Mile, which already has proven to be "live" with the subsequent G1 Read win by fourth-place finisher Jeranimo. HOLDING GLORY won 4 of 6 in Brazil including a G1. He would be making his North American debut for A.C. Avila, if he starts. Closer Looks >>
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8 It is true that TUCKERS POINT is a maiden-claiming making his 15th start. Based on his recent form he is the right favorite. He missed by a neck last time while finishing more than 10 lengths clear of third. His stable is winning races; the gelding is the "fastest" in the field on numbers. INDYCOTT is an A.P. Indy colt out of a Seeking the Gold mare, dropping from special weight to maiden-20. He missed by only a half-length two back vs. special-weights at GG. Well-bred, but entered for $20k. Odd. ROCABAR has shown speed and drops from maiden-40, while WILL HE AMAZE has shown no ability, but drops from special-weight. Closer Looks >>
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