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Beyer: Shared Belief gets nod despite short price
When California Chrome was trying to sweep the Triple Crown this spring, many racing fans anticipated that his 3-year-old campaign would be a historic one ending with a triumph in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The celebrated colt will indeed complete his season in the Classic, but not as the undisputed star of the show at Santa Anita on Saturday. He is merely one of four colts vying for the 3-year-old championship and Horse of the Year title as well as a $5 million purse. Like most of the 13 Breeders’ Cup events Friday and Saturday, the Classic is a competitive race, a challenging puzzle for handicappers. And none of the entrants is more puzzling than California Chrome.
After his much-acclaimed victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, California Chrome lost the Belmont Stakes to Tonalist – a forgivable defeat, perhaps. Following a rest, he came east to tune up for the Breeders’ Cup in the Pennsylvania Derby and delivered a lackluster performance behind the runaway winner, Bayern.
California Chrome faces Tonalist and Bayern again, as well as Shared Belief, who missed the Triple Crown with a foot injury but comes into the Classic with a 7-for-7 career record that will make him the post-time favorite.
Trainer Art Sherman said California Chrome’s bad performance in suburban Philadelphia was an aberration. “He didn’t have a good trip at all,” the veteran conditioner said. “You didn’t see the Chrome that I know.” He insisted that his colt has been training well and is ready to deliver.
Bettors ought to be skeptical. It is hard to feel confident about a horse who hasn’t run a good race since May. And even if he returned to top form, is that form good enough? With the benefit of hindsight, it is apparent that the horses behind California Chrome in the Triple Crown were a weak bunch. (The second-place finishers in the Derby and Preakness have a combined 0-for-15 record in stakes competition.)
Bayern’s front-running wins in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby and Haskell Invitational were faster – from a speed-figure standpoint – than any race California Chrome has ever run. But Bayern was aided by a bias at Parx (the renamed Philadelphia Park) that gave an almost insuperable advantage to speed horses on the rail. He will face a much more difficult challenge in the 1 1/4-mile Classic; he was trounced in his only previous effort at that distance.
Unlike Bayern, Tonalist’s forte is running 1 1/4 miles or longer. Unlike California Chrome, Tonalist is clearly in peak condition. He overcame trouble to win his last start, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he was beating a subpar field by the standards of that historic event. And while the Gold Cup was his third straight victory over the sweeping Belmont course, Tonalist is 1 for 5 everywhere else.
Shared Belief’s perfect record speaks for itself – almost. He won all of his races authoritatively until his last start at Santa Anita, where rivals appeared to conspire against him and forced him to race very wide all the way around the track. Nevertheless, he won by a neck. It was a good effort but not nearly as impressive as his dominant victory in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, where he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 115 – the best by any colt of his generation. That race was on a synthetic surface, as were four of the colt’s other wins, and he might be a better horse on synthetics than he is on dirt. Nevertheless, if a handicapper is prepared (as I am) to eliminate California Chrome and Bayern, he is the almost-inescapable choice to win Saturday.
My Classic picks: 1. Shared Belief, 2. Tonalist, 3. Zivo.
Nobody should like to pick or bet a favorite to win in the Breeders’ Cup because this event so often produces substantial payoffs on horses with solid handicapping merit. From a wagering standpoint, several races on Saturday’s card are more interesting than the Classic because the favorites appear vulnerable.
JUVENILE FILLIES: Angela Renee and Conquest Eclipse are the top two choices on the morning line after finishing 1-2 in a prep race at Santa Anita. Both benefited from perfect, ground-saving trips as they beat an unexceptional field. The Juvenile Fillies is made to order for an upset.
Cristina’s Journey battled for the lead in a fast pace and drew away to win a stakes at Churchill Downs – an effort that was much better than it may look on paper. But the most intriguing entrant is Puca, who cruised to 16-length victory against a modest maiden field at Belmont. Going directly from a maiden race to a Grade 1 is an aggressive step, but trainer Bill Mott – a winner of nine Breeders’ Cup events – doesn’t make moves like this rashly.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT: Stonetastic won a Saratoga stakes race by eight lengths with a dazzling speed figure but disappointed as the favorite in her most recent start at Keeneland. In that race, she got involved in a suicidal duel with another ultra-quick filly, running a half-mile in 44.51 seconds, and she understandably weakened at the end. She won’t be subjected to such pressure in this seven-furlong event, and she can control it from start to finish. I’ll play an exacta coupling her with Artemis Agrotera, but if she is anything near her 8-1 morning-line price, Stonetastic is the bet of the day.
JUVENILE: Daredevil scored a brilliant victory in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, earning a Beyer of 107. But there are two reasons for skepticism about him: Both of Daredevil’s two career wins have come over sloppy tracks, and his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a surprisingly poor 7-for-103 record in the Breeders’ Cup.
Upstart finished second behind Daredevil in the Champagne after winning his two prior starts on fast tracks. His speed figure, 102, is good enough to beat everybody else in the Juvenile. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, he has a good chance to turn the tables on Daredevil over a fast track.
©2014 The Washington Post
Nice picks Andy :) Not a single exacta horse in the bunch. What a maroon :)
I never believed in JINX until Good Ole Andy picked Shared Belief. WOW..... Like putting 10 pounds of lead in the saddle.
I've regained my faith in Chrome after his workouts and on this track. I think it will be a Chrome & Shared Belief finish. I also think it's pretty insulting that the Juvenile Fillies will not be shown live on NBC, but I like Puca too. I hope we get to see the entire race and not some stretch run. There should be plenty of time to cut some of the blab.
Some of the picks make sense. Puca is a very intriguing horse but she will be overbet. She still could win cause this is not a typical Mott move. Super Colossal makes a ton of sense. Breeding/Barn/Owners and looks very fast. My best pick of the day has to be Chicquita. Shes 8/1 morning line and as a 4 year-old filly she went off the Arc favorite. Only 3 starts this year and wheeling right back. Old school move. That's good enough for me. I'm not sold on Tonalist at all and I love Clement. Not saying he will run bad but he looks like a typical Belmont loving horse. And I don't see Zivo here. T.O.N.Y does make sense cause he has already proven he can ship and run on the West Coast. Not sure hes good enough but at 12/1 hes worth a flyer.
Anyone who saw the HRTV coverage of the BC@SA should save the slings and arrows for them. Made me long for the TVG gang who are blacked-out in another great move by the horse racing powers.
I expect a big race out of Tonalist and Toast of New York and, based on the way Chad Brown's horses ran yesterday, I am looking for Zivo to crash the exotics, hopefully at huge odds. T.O.N.Y. owns the highest last race BSF by a margin of 1 point over Bayern and 5 points over Tonalist but there is some serious speed signed up for the Classic and Bayern isn't going to get an easy, uncontested lead like he has in last two wins. Tonalist, T.O.N.Y. , Zivo and Prayer for Relief all have the right running style to take advantage of a hot pace. Both SB and CC have tactical speed which is a good thing in this race. The question is, are one or both capable of attending the pace without getting caught up in the early battle on the front end? I expect to see Tonalist or T.O.N.Y. cross the wire in front with SB or CC sandwiched in between a big bomb or two in the lower rungs of the tri and super. Hopefully, at least one of those bombs is Zivo or PFR.
With all due respect Andy, your own Beyer Speed Figures tell a very different story. Shared Belief ran one of the weakest races of his career in the Awesome Again and in the process his BSF tumbled from a career high 115 to a 101. A precipitous decline to say the least. Sheet players would look to his last four races and see a very clear pattern that suggests SB may have peaked in the Pacific Classic and as a result is much more likely to run another sub par race, from a speed figure perspective at least, than he is to make another forward move. I'm sure you would admit that it is going to take a BSF much higher than 101 to win the BC Classic and there is a legitimate question with regard to whether SB is capable of putting up that number, especially on a surface which is clearly not as much to his liking as the softer going of the synthetic surfaces he clearly favors. I'm not saying he can't win the race but if he does it means he is going to have to run the best race of his life, on a surface that is not his best, against MUCH tougher competition than he has ever faced before and in the world of parimutuel speculation, backing a short-priced favorite in such a situation is not the formula for success.
oh no the cooler actually picked a few horses I like..im doomed. Andy this is the year you turn it all around and pick winners...I hope.
Look who woke up.
Dim wits...Shared Belief is the real thing a legend in the making'