03/27/2015 11:33AM

Bet This, Not That: Races on Saturday, March 28


Last week, we used DRF Formulator to find a few nice winners at $13.80, $15.20, and $44.80, and we’re back looking at a few we like at Gulfstream, plus one price play in the Louisiana Derby. Formulator allows you to see the lifetime past performances of horses who have run in the past five years for any trainer who has horses entered, as well as charts, replays, filters, and more. With access to this database and with one-click access to replays, it can allow you to see some things that aren’t readily available to the betting public.


Race 1 – optional claimer, one mile on turf

Bet This: No. 8 Artempus (8-1 morning line). This 4-year-old colt has been on the sidelines more than 18 months following a maiden victory in September 2013. From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, the 67 he earned in that race and the 62 earned in his lone turf effort do not seem fast enough to win this race. However, this colt has one sibling, a stakes winner on turf in Japan, and his dam is a half-sister to stakes winner Seeking the Dia. Given his pedigree and with the maturity that you could expect as a 4-year-old, there’s plenty of reason to expect he could post a career-best effort here. The 18-month layoff is a concern, of course, but he is now in the barn of Jorge Navarro, who does quite well with horses coming off long layoffs. Over the past five years, Navarro is 21-7-2-5 with a $4.05 return on investment on all horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more and 2 for 3 with runners coming off a layoff of more than one year.

Race 2 – maiden special weight, 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt

Bet This: No. 10 Delta Outlaw (5-1 ML). Like Artempus, Delta Outlaw is coming off a career-best effort as a 2-year-old followed by a layoff. In this case, though, the layoff is only five months, and this Tiznow colt has been training like clockwork at Palm Beach Downs for his return. He’s the first foal out of Grade 1 winner Mistical Plan, and he’s eligible to improve on the 77 Beyer he earned last out, when he finished less than one length behind Bridget’s Big Luvy, who just took the $100,000 Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park last weekend.

Race 4 – maiden special weight, 7 1/2 furlongs on turf

Bet This: No. 1 Hundred Year Storm (8-1 ML). Debuts going two turns on turf for Chad Brown, and that right there should make you take notice. Over the past year, Brown is 38-12-6-0 with a $3.43 ROI on first-time starters on turf at distances of 7 1/2 furlongs or longer. Brown has named Paco Lopez to ride, something he’s done only six times in the past year, and it’s notable that five of those runners were firsters, and he won with three of those for a whopping $11.32 ROI. Stretching back five years, Brown has named Lopez on 17 firsters in maiden special weight races, and they’ve gone 5-5-2 with a $7.29 ROI. Pedigree-wise, this one should love the turf, as she’s by War Front, whose foals are 164 for 868 (19 percent) lifetime on turf, and the dam is a half sister to Grade 1-winning turf router Stroll and multiple stakes winner Patrol.

Race 9 – maiden special weight, one mile on dirt

Bet This: No. 6 Summer Dancer (20-1 ML). Makes his first start on dirt after three less-than-stellar efforts on turf. From a pedigree standpoint, this is a much better surface for him, as his dam was 14-5-4-3 with two graded stakes wins on dirt and 3-0-1-0 on turf. That dam has produced three who have each earned more than $100,000 on dirt. Her foals combined to go 9 for 46 in dirt routes, while they have tallied only a 4-for-60 record in all other races. Plus, trainer David Cannizzo has hit the board 50 percent of the time he’s gone turf-to-dirt in routes over the past five years (18-2-6-1), and a couple of those second-place finishers missed by less than a length at odds of 12-1 and 23-1. Looking for improvement from this Pulpit colt at a big price.

Race 13 – Grade 3 Pan American, 1 1/2 miles on turf

Bet This: No. 9 Glenard (8-1 ML). Stretches back out to 12 furlongs in his second start in North America for top turf trainer Graham Motion. It’s a distance where this gelding holds a record of 5-2-1-1 (vs. a record of 14-1-2-2 in all other races). Over the past five years, Motion is 25-7-4-2 with a $4.22 ROI on turf at distances of 12 furlongs or more in the second start following a layoff, and he’s 10-3-1-0, $6.39 ROI, when those races come in graded stakes. I’m not expecting to get the morning-line price, but anything above 5-1 would be fair value.


Race 11 – Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 mile on dirt

Bet This: No. 8 St. Joe Bay (10-1 ML). Set the pace last out in the Grade 2 Risen Star before tiring and finishing fourth, missing show by only a head. Considering that he dueled early with 111-1 longshot Hero of Humor, and that the three horses closest to him early ended up the last three finishers, he held on well in a race that seemed to favor closers. The first-call Moss Pace Figure he earned in that race was an 88, the highest Moss figure in this field, and it was rated a +16, meaning that the pace was well above what should be expected for the first quarter-mile. If his main pace rival here, Mr. Z, shows less speed in taking blinkers off, St. Joe Bay could get an uncontested lead and could take this field a long way.

These are just a few examples of great bets to target. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two Formulator cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.