04/17/2015 1:46PM

Bet This, Not That: Races on Saturday, April 18


This week, we have two “Bet This” plays plus a “Not That” one. Again, let’s use DRF Formulator to look at a few plays around the country. Formulator allows you to see the lifetime past performances of horses who have run in the past five years for any trainer who has horses entered, as well as charts, replays, filters, and more. With access to this database and with one-click access to replays, it can allow you to see some things that aren’t readily available to the betting public.


Race 7 – maiden special weight, one mile on turf

Bet This: No. 12 Czar (8-1 morning line). This 3-year-old colt makes his first start in almost six months, having last raced at the Keeneland fall meet as a juvenile. He had a bit of a troubled trip but ran on well in that race, finishing fourth in a field of 12, just a neck away from second place, and the top two finishers later competed in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. In his prior race, also at Keeneland, he was a clear third behind Courtier, who ran second in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes next out, just a head behind Dubai Sky, the winner of the Spiral. Czar finished ahead of three next-out winners in that race, and the Beyer Speed Figure he earned there is higher than all runners in the main body of this field except for Animal Kracker. Remember, though, Czar earned his figure in the fall of his juvenile season, and with natural progression that could come as a 3-year-old, he could move forward at a square price.

Race 8 – maiden special weight, six furlongs on dirt

Not That: No. 3 Get Set Go (5-2 ML). On paper, this one looms a logical contender but also could be vulnerable at a short price. Trainer Ian Wilkes has not had a winner in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland since the fall meet of 2011, and his last maiden special weight sprint winner came at the spring 2010 meet with Versailles Road. That sprint win will drop out of Formulator on the day of this race, but as of Thursday, Wilkes was 71-2-7-8 with a 50-cent return on investment over the past five years in maiden special weights at Keeneland, and since they put the dirt back last fall, he’s 15-0-0-2.


Race 7 – Santa Barbara Handicap, 1 1/4 miles on turf

Bet This: No. 9 Arethusa (12-1 ML). She steps back into a graded stakes race following a win last out vs. optional claimers in her second start of 2015. She failed to hit the board in four of the five graded stakes she tried as a 2-year-old and the first half of her 3-year-old season, but now she’s on the turf, a surface that fits her breeding better. Her dam, Miss Coronado, scored her maiden victory going long on the grass, and her second dam, Miss Caerleona, twice placed in turf graded stakes at 12 furlongs. Arethusa could be set to take a step forward with the added furlong in this, her third start as a 4-year-old following a long layoff. Trainer Eoin Harty has had a recent history of horses running well in turf-route graded stakes, going 19-2-1-7 for a $3.62 ROI over the past five years. That’s 47 percent in the money, and it includes two runners hitting the board at odds of 21-1 and one at 37-1.

These are just a few examples of great bets to target. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two Formulator cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.

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