04/10/2015 12:30PM

Bet This, Not That: Races on Saturday, April 11

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Had a strong day last Saturday, with $18.40 and $39.40 winners. This week, we’ll keep it short, with just three “Bet This” plays. Again, let’s use DRF Formulator to look at a few plays around the country. Formulator allows you to see the lifetime past performances of horses who have run in the past five years for any trainer who has horses entered, as well as charts, replays, filters, and more. With access to this database and with one-click access to replays, it can allow you to see some things that aren’t readily available to the betting public.

KEENELAND

Race 6 – maiden special weight, six furlongs on dirt

Bet This: No. 1 Battle Midway (15-1 morning line). This colt is a half-sibling to Grade 2 winner Cool Coal Man as well as a few others who were multiple winners on dirt. Toss the first effort from this one for a couple of reasons. First, Nick Zito is poor in the first career start (1 for 66 and only 14 percent in the money over the past two years with all first-time starters; 56-0-0-6 in maiden special weight races) and markedly better in the second career start (8 for 54 in last two years with all runners, 5 for 25 with those in dirt sprint maiden special weight races for a whopping $4.50 return on investment). Also, that race was a 14-horse field and one of the tougher maiden special weight races of the Gulfstream Park championship meet. The winner, Khozan, won his second start by more than 12 lengths and was on the Kentucky Derby trail before an injury sidelined him, and a few other runners in the field returned with nice efforts. In this spot, he faces only eight rivals, and the 2-1 morning-line favorite couldn’t graduate last out against five rivals at odds of 2-5. I fully expect improvement from Battle Midway here, and he could be overlooked at the windows.

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Race 7 – $100,000 stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs on turf

Bet This: No. 9 On the Backstreets (12-1 ML). Based on her recent efforts, this filly doesn’t appear to be good enough. However, those efforts came either at the wrong distance or on the wrong surface. Key off her efforts in turf sprints, where she has a 4-3-0-0 record with two stakes wins, and she fits here. Considering that those wins all came in the first half of her 3-year-old campaign, it’s reasonable to expect that she could improve on her lifetime top Beyer Speed Figure of 85 in this start, her second as a 4-year-old. Sure, those races all came on Santa Anita’s downhill course, but it’s interesting to see her show up here, now in Wesley Ward’s barn but racing for the same owners. Over the past five years, Ward is 4-3-0-0 with runners at Keeneland in the first start following a trainer switch, including All Squared Away’s win in the 2012 Lexington Stakes at odds of over 70-1.

SANTA ANITA

Race 4 – maiden special weight, 6 1/2 furlongs on turf

Bet This: No. 3 Loufoque (4-1 ML). This 4-year-old filly has only strung together four starts over the span of 18 months, so it appears that she has had her share of setbacks. However, her three turf starts have been strong, including her debut on this downhill turf course in October 2013 as a 2-year-old, when she rallied nicely late to grab the place. She’s facing a group where the most logical contenders are 3-year-olds, all of whom are facing older for the first time, and trainer Richard Mandella is strong in maiden special weights on the downhill turf course (47-9-4-6, $3.28 ROI over the last five years).

These are just a few examples of great bets to target. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two Formulator cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.

John Cochrane More than 1 year ago
Thanks again, four figure tickets are hard to come by.
Larry Goldberg More than 1 year ago
So even when they are beat they win!!! Hazah Hazah Hazhah
John Cochrane More than 1 year ago
Thanks for the help last Saturday and two weeks before with that maiden bomber at Santa Anita -- outstanding insightful handicapping.
akakug . More than 1 year ago
I am just glad for anything I get! Going to my race track opening day tomorrow Sat, 10th Apr.
TIBOR BAKOS More than 1 year ago
Hmm, I think I'll pass on any recommendations made by someone who can't get the date right. Is he reading the form for Saturday, the 11th or the form for Friday, the 10th. (Just joshing though, couldn't resist.)
DRFFormulator More than 1 year ago
That's the editor, I swear!