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Bet This, Not That: Oaklawn review
Prior to the 2015 meet at Oaklawn Park, we used DRF Formulator to highlight some key trainers and analyze how they’ve fared there over the last five years. Oaklawn’s meet ended April 11, so let’s review how each angle performed. It’s not simply an exercise in self-evaluation but also in looking forward to see which angles could remain positive or negative ones at Oaklawn next year.
Bet This: D. Wayne Lukas at Oaklawn in maiden special weight routes.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 79-16-7-11, $2.87 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 16-1-2-1, $1.86 ROI
Coming into the 2015 meet, Lukas had a 20 percent win rate with this angle over the past five years at Oaklawn, essentially doubling his win rate and his return on investment for all runners. At the 2015 Oaklawn meet, the win rate, the in-the-money rate, and the ROI all dipped, but it is worth noting that his one winner paid nearly $30, and the two who ran second were 19-1 and 20-1, so this does still appear to be an area where Lukas’s horses can outrun their odds at times. Verdict: Neutral
Not That: Lukas at Oaklawn in maiden special weight sprints.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 67-4-7-6, $0.44 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 14-1-2-1, $0.22 ROI
For the 2015 meet, the record for Lukas’s runners in MSW sprints looks nearly identical to his stats in routes. The odds tells a different story, though, as his lone winner in this sample paid $3.20, and the three who hit the board were all lower than 10-1. Verdict: Not That
Bet This: Federico Villafranco at Oaklawn in sprints in the first start following a claim.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 25-7-4-1, $4.15 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 20-3-2-2, $1.90 ROI
Considering that Villafranco had another solid Oaklawn meet, going 18 for 99 with 42 percent in the money, the runners in this sample are a bit disappointing. The ROI is saved by a $20 winner, though, and if you drop the maidens from this sample (as noted below), it becomes 16-3-2-2, and the ROI moves into profitable territory. Still, there may have been some regression to the mean, and it’s hard to stamp this one as an angle to watch for 2016. Verdict: Neutral
Not That: Villafranco at Oaklawn with maidens.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 22-2-4-2, $0.73 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 19-2-2-2, $0.44 ROI
No prices to be had in this lot, as the two winners both paid less than $5 and only one horse hit the board at higher than odds of 3-1. That means these runners generally ran to their odds or worse, as three other favorites failed to hit the board. In addition, prior to the start of the meet, we noted that Villafranco was 6-0-1-0 at Oaklawn with maidens in the first start following a claim. At the 2015 meet, he went 4-0-0-0 with those runners. Verdict: Not That
Bet This: Chris Richard at Oaklawn in sprints with last-out winners.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 55-19-10-9, $2.26 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 11-3-1-1, $2.41 ROI
Prior to the meet, we mentioned that Richard wins at a high rate with these runners, but the odds tend to be low. That trend continued at the 2015 meet, and he improved on the ROI as well. Still, the profit margin is slim here, so he’ll have to continue firing at a high rate to keep this a profitable angle. Verdict: Neutral
Not That: Richard sprint to route at Oaklawn.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 31-3-3-1, $1.02 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 5-1-0-0, $1.44 ROI
The one winner in the sample was the shortest price of the bunch, and not only did no others hit the board, the best finish of those was sixth place, and all were beaten at least seven lengths. Verdict: Not That
Not That: Steve Asmussen debuting at Oaklawn.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 30-1-7-6, $0.34 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-1-1-1, $2.13 ROI
A three-horse sample is a bit small to draw many conclusions, but 1 for 3 with 100 percent in the money is a marked improvement over his stats with firsters at Oaklawn in the five years prior. Still, all three were bet heavily, and two of the three were favored in the wagering, so it may be possible that the trend of overbetting these types continues. Verdict: Neutral
Bet This: Asmussen at Oaklawn in maiden special weights after their debut.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 38-12-6-4, $2.87 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 7-2-2-0, $6.68 ROI
Okay, this is more like it; 4 for 7 in the exacta is always nice, and from a wagering standpoint, the best news is that the two biggest prices in the sample were the two winners, both paying more than $20. Verdict: Bet This
Bet This: Cody Autrey with first-time starters.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 14-8-1-1, $5.25 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-0-0-0, $0.00 ROI
Maybe it was just a matter of time for Autrey to regress to the mean with these runners. Zero for three is pretty bad, and two of the three were beaten more than 23 lengths, but his record with Oaklawn debuters was so strong prior to 2015 that we’re not willing to give up on this one yet. Verdict: Bet This
Not That: Autrey in the first start following a claim.
Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 60-6-10-8, $0.68 ROI
Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-1-0-0, $3.13 ROI
I guess we missed the boat with both Autrey angles, huh? The $3.13 ROI equates to a 56 percent profit, but given the small sample size and lack of success previously, we’ll still go against these runners, especially at a short price. Also, the two non-winners ran eighth and ninth, each beaten at least 11 lengths. Verdict: Not That
These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two Formulator cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.
Funny that the trainer that won the meet, Chris Hartman, gets no mention. While guys that barely operated, Lukas and Autrey, get attention.
An honest review. No window-dressing any of the results. I like that, very professional.