Bernier: Kentucky Derby pace analysis

Assessing the pace scenario is one of the more critical aspects of handicapping the Kentucky Derby. Historically, the Derby has featured fast early paces, enabling even the deepest one-run closers a chance to hit the board. Recently, however, the Derby has featured more moderate paces during the early stages, making it very difficult to catch the horses who are forwardly placed throughout. This year’s pace scenario is an intriguing one; below, you’ll find runners grouped based on where they’re likely to reside during Saturday’s race.

FORWARD

Irap, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, State of Honor, Fast and Accurate, Battle of Midway

STATE OF HONOR (6) could very well be the speed of the speed, but the connections of FAST AND ACCURATE (3) have made it clear that they’re sending to the front. BATTLE OF MIDWAY (11) isn’t likely to be far behind those two, and IRISH WAR CRY (17) has displayed legitimate front-end speed as well. The advantage Irish War Cry has over those runners is his post position; Rajiv Maragh should be able to sit just off the early pace in the clear, just as he did when winning the Wood Memorial. ALWAYS DREAMING (5) will encounter an early-pace scenario he’s never seen before, and it will be up to John Velazquez to get this son of Bodemeister to relax early in the race.

MIDPACK

Girvin, Classic Empire, Gormley, Thunder Snow, Practical Joke, Untrapped

CLASSIC EMPIRE (14) has been the most polarizing horse on the Kentucky Derby trail, and he’s likely to be the focal point of the 143th Kentucky Derby – for better or worse. If he behaves himself, a nice trip could present itself. From post 14, Julien Leparoux has the luxury of being in the last stall of the main starting gate, with a gap to his right before the auxiliary gate begins. If the pace warms up in front of him, Classic Empire can sit a few lengths off the pace and take advantage, as he did in the Arkansas Derby. GORMLEY (18) may be more forwardly placed Saturday than would be considered ideal; regardless of his position on the track, his most recent start in the Santa Anita Derby resulted in a slow final time, and he’ll need to improve dramatically to win the Kentucky Derby. PRACTICAL JOKE (19) has some distance questions to answer, and the No. 19 post does him no favors entering the first turn. THUNDER SNOW (2) has never encountered a pace like the one he’ll see Saturday, but he is a classy runner who has a legitimate chance.

CLOSERS

Gunnevera, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit, Hence, McCraken, Patch, Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer

If recent history is any indication, the horses coming from well out of it will be up against it from a win standpoint. MCCRAKEN (15) could be considered a midpack runner, and regardless of designation, he must be considered a legitimate contender; his 3-for-3 record at Churchill Downs is a major positive. HENCE (8) is an intriguing entrant as he emerged victorious in the most productive Kentucky Derby prep of the season, the Sunland Derby. One-run closers are always at the mercy of pace and trip, and Saturday’s race will be no different. If the pace heats up and the traffic issues are minor, a few of these closers could make their presence felt down the stretch beneath the twin spires.