06/04/2003 11:00PM

Belmont Stakes Profiles: Supervisor


STRENGTHS: Even the most optimistic of analysts would have to concede that this colt seems up against it against this bunch. This late runner's greatest strength is that the marathon distance doesn't seem as if it will pose a problem - how long it will actually take him to complete the 1 1/2 miles is another story. He is also one of only two in here, Empire Maker being the other, to have finished in front of Funny Cide. It occurred early last winter in Gulfstream's Holy Bull, and although Funny Cide was first off the layoff and roughed up, Supervisor did beat him to the wire.

WEAKNESSES: Where do I begin? The Peter Pan represents the first time he has managed to hit the board in a stakes race in eight career tries. He has also been defeated in 13 of his 15 outings while trying much weaker than he will face in the Belmont. His Beyer Speed Figures are extremely low (yet to reach 90) in comparison to the big guns in here, and since he has had so many tries it's unlikely that we will see the improvement necessary to come close to contending for a share of this purse.

STRATEGY: Despite the 1 1/2-mile distance of this race and the wide sweeping turns of Belmont Park, the winner rarely makes up serious ground over the last quarter of a mile. Instead, the winner is usually a runner with good tactical speed. Unfortunately, Supervisor doesn't fit that bill, so he will have to be ridden hard early to secure a good spot relatively close to the pace, and that should be his undoing as he probably won't have much left late.

VALUE: Despite the morning line price of 50-1, his true chances of winning this race are probably at least 100-1. While a flyer to win or use on the bottom of trifectas or superfectas at this price can't be disputed, any serious money wagered on him may be misdirected, as he looks seriously overmatched.