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Updated on 06/10/2011 6:42PM
Belmont Stakes 2011 handicapping chat
DRF handicappers Dan Illman, Marcus Hersh, and Mike Beer discussed the Belmont Stakes live from 5 to 6 p.m. Eastern. Selected highlights from the chat:
BeerAtDRF: I can use Brilliant Speed only because he didn't have the best closer's trip in the Derby. I would want over 20/1 odds though.
DRF_DanIllman: I can't give you a good reason to bet Brilliant Speed.
DRF_DanIllman: I'm chalking out. Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Nehro
BeerAtDRF: Mucho at least had a bit of a trip at Pimlico -- still don't believe he's good enough though.
BeerAtDRF: Shack may actually wind up the best price of the major contenders. I'm definitely using Shackleford
DRF_DanIllman: I'm worried about Shackleford's staying power. He switched leads twice in the last 200 yards of the Preakness.
MarcusHersh: Top 4 1. Animal Kingdom 2. Nehro. 3. Master of Hounds 4. Santiva.
BeerAtDRF: Santiva is at least mildly interesting if you're taking a shot. Still wonder how good he is and if he can improve going.
BeerAtDRF: Stay Thirsty has no chance.
DRF_DanIllman: I don't see Stay Thirsty and I'm playing against Mucho Macho Man.
BeerAtDRF: I've fallen into the Nehro trap. He just seems really likely to run his race.
MarcusHersh: I would be shocked to see Shack in top 3 in Belmont.
MarcusHersh: Monzon may have "stamina," but he's probably not a good enough horse.
MarcusHersh: New shooters -- umm, none of the above? Alternation would've been the interesting one.
DRF_DanIllman: Mark, of the horses that didn't contest the Preaknesss, I'd use Santiva.
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- I think Much Macho Man has some quality. I also think he's been pretty heavily raced. Losing weight? Tailing off?
MarcusHersh: Animal Kingdom is nowhere near the kind of stone closer Zen was.
BeerAtDRF: Maybe Marcus, but I don't necessarily believe in 'over-raced'. Where is Macho Man's good race?
MarcusHersh: Shack will be in in the front early barring a stumble.
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- Mucho looked good winning Risen Star. Watching him train was all favorable. He has talent.
BeerAtDRF: Ruler on Ice did virtually no running at Sunland. Astroloy was after a brutal pace that day.
MarcusHersh: Nehro needs to stop passing the lead horse AFTER the finish.
DRF_DanIllman: Tom Premier, worried about Ruler On Ice's condition. He missed Preakness due to poor blood work.
DRF_DanIllman: Think Mucho Macho Man is over the top after several tough races.
DRF_DanIllman: Master of Hounds has done a great amount of shipping. He likes it.
BeerAtDRF: How do you know Hounds likes it Illman. Because he never wins?
MarcusHersh: Master of Hounds shipped from Ireland to Dubai and back again in March. Then from IRE to KY and back. Now IRE - NY.
DRF_DanIllman: Beer, stop messing with me. He ran well in Dubai, he ran well in the Derby.
MarcusHersh: I was told Hounds looked good his first day at track. Good sign. Many O'brien travelers do not.
MarcusHersh: Three horses best suited to 12 furlongs: Master of Hounds, Santiva, Animal Kingdom.
DRF_DanIllman: Not sure Master of Hounds will love 12 furlongs. Female family full of sprinters.
BeerAtDRF: Ernie, i think Brilliant Speed has a shot and picked him second, think he'll be an underlay though
BeerAtDRF: Nehro may hang, but he was against the flow of Derby and is very likely to fire. Is he good enough?
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- how was Nehro against the flow?
DRF_DanIllman: Marcus, I'll fault Right One's poor lead change as well.
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer - Nehro wasn't that close till he made an early move and he made it into slow pace. I can't excuse him there.
BeerAtDRF: i think Shak is a major player and he will be on all of my tickets. why is Animal Kingdom so much better than him? v
MarcusHersh: AK is so much better than SHack cuz of pedigree. Shack by sprint sire out of 7furlongs mare.
DRF_DanIllman: Karen Martin...Isn't He Perfect, Stay Thirsty are pitches.
MarcusHersh: Last place finisher should be Isn't He Perfect. But that's too logical
DRF_DanIllman: Prime Cut is a solid listed stakes horse that finished third in the local prep.
MarcusHersh: Prime Cut beat touted Bind in FG allowance. So-so Lexington. So-so Peter Pan. 30-1 shot.
MarcusHersh: How about undercard stakes? Anyone?
MarcusHersh: I like Viscount Nelson & Al Khali in Manhattan.
DRF_DanIllman: Think Viscount Nelson has a shot to upset Gio Ponti in the Manhattan.
DRF_DanIllman: Think Savvy Supreme has a shot in the Acorn.
BeerAtDRF: Animal Kingdom, Nehro feel like they will take all of the Belmont money. You need an outsider to crash it
MarcusHersh: I like Wildcat Brief a touch in the True North.
DRF_DanIllman: Santiva has been handled with kid gloves. He may be fresh for this.
MarcusHersh: Dan -- but why handle Santiva with such kid gloves?
MarcusHersh: What will Animal Kingdom's price be? Steve Crist thought 3-2 or lower.
BeerAtDRF: I thought Animal Kingdom would be less than 2/1, but i'm a terrible line-maker
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- tend to agree. Animal Kingdom will be too short. I backed him at Preak even with deflated odds. Not this time.
BeerAtDRF: Temperature supposed to be much cooler in NY tomorrow, in the 70s.
MarcusHersh: The Belmont main track has been fast-playing but unbiased for days.
MarcusHersh: Santiva over AK should pay $150. But I'm not that solid with Santiva on top.
DRF_DanIllman: Interesting pedigree on Santiva. By Giant's Causeway out of half-sister to Safely Kept.
BeerAtDRF: I do not care who rides most of the time. If you pay big attention to riders so be it. I don't.
MarcusHersh: Mike Beer -- Hooray on jock-importance downgrading.
MarcusHersh: Santiva's pedigree: Safely Kept champ sprinter
DRF_DanIllman: Santiva has tons of speed on the bottom of his pedigree. I wonder if that will sap his stamina going 12 furlongs.
MarcusHersh: Some jockeys ride six or seven poor horses a day and win one or less.
BeerAtDRF: Shak may wind up the best 'bet' -- He feels like an overlay right now.
DRF_DanIllman: I liked Master of Hounds in the Derby. He ran well...Think that's the best he can do.
BeerAtDRF: I'm with Prince Will I am in the Manhattan. Hoping for over 4/1 though.