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Belmont: Pick six players chase $251,315 carryover
By Dave Litfin
ELMONT, N.Y. – Everyone is naturally looking ahead to Saratoga, but interest in an otherwise ordinary card on Thursday is heightened by a pick six carryover of $251,315 as a short final week at Belmont begins.
The skull-busting exercise includes four maiden races, and numbers 57 betting interests, assuming there is turf racing. It gets under way with race 4, a $35,000 beaten claimer scheduled for seven furlongs on turf, at 2:26 p.m. Eastern.
Here is the rundown:
Race 4: Between them, the 9-year-olds Mabou and Silver Timber have run 83 times and earned more than $1 million. Last summer, Mabou won the Grade 1 Turf Writers Cup three weeks after being claimed by David Jacobson, but he has never run at less than a mile, and hasn’t won a flat race since 2008. Silver Timber is a five-time graded stakes winner, but has never won past six furlongs and hasn’t even tried going longer than that since the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
The likely favorite is Rustler Hustler, a Bill Mott-trained dropdown who won stakes back to back as a 2-year-old in 2010. He has been no better than third ever since. Bruce Alley, away since meeting 2010 Saratoga stakes winners Seal Cove and Big Blue Kitten, over a year ago, is a threat if ready.
Race 5: Priscilla Marie beat half the field in her debut two weeks ago, but is surrounded by first-time starters. For pick six purposes, a glimpse of the double will-pays is the only way to get a clue about betting action.
Likely to attract support are Funfair (trained by Christophe Clement), who has two siblings to have won at the current meet for the same trainer; High N Far (Alan Goldberg), whose older half-sister Spun Ribbon won a turf allowance at Louisiana Downs last Sunday; Colorful Image (Todd Pletcher), who has worked three times on turf recently; and Giant Cats Eye (Tom Albertrani), a $300,000 yearling purchase.
Race 6: This $65,000 maiden turf claimer may be a tough leg to get by. Nine of the 10 fillies have recorded virtually identical Beyer Figures, and seven return from layoffs.
Comment, away since two fifth-place finishes at Gulfstream Park for Mott, is the only one never to have lost a maiden claimer. She may go favored over Attention and Qualionne, who were runner-up finishers last fall and haven’t run since then.
Race 7: Fast track form is lacking, and there is not much pace in this $35,000 maiden claimer out of the main-track chute.
Upside Down, shipping in for Fair Hill-based Mike Trombetta, and dropping in class after an improved second try at Delaware Park, may be the one to catch from the rail.
Sokitumi Samurai, beaten a nose for $50,000 last out, looks logical enough but has already lost three times this year at 5-2 or lower.
Secret Shifters, who puts blinkers on for leading trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., has been away since a dead-rail trip in the slop May 9.
Race 8: It is brother against brother, and father against son in this starter/optional claiming sprint. Haya’s Boy, second in the G.W. Barker Stakes last out, is among the most improved horses in New York since being claimed for $7,500 by Jeremiah Englehart. He may have to catch War Colony, idle since a game try in the slop for Jeremiah’s father Chris Englehart in late May.
Christopher’s Joy, who followed a sharp win in his local debut with a bullet work for Tony Dutrow, is a big threat, while Washington’s Rules makes his first start since New Year’s Day for Tony’s brother Richard.
Race 9: My Sparky vanished after running fifth in her 2010 debut against More Than Real, who won that year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
“I don’t know what she’s going to do,” said trainer George Weaver. “She’s coming off a double layoff line, and most people know what that means. I’m hoping the drop helps her get there.”
Rock On Home is the likely pacesetter after chasing favored dropdown Vindicated Ghost in her return for David Donk. Discreet Lady and Rennina are other contenders in a treacherous anchor leg.
That came out garbled,I wrote,"i couldn't find a "single" & was forced to pass the chance to get rich quick."
I couldn't find a "single" & was forced to pass the chance to get rich quick.
I'm feeling lucky, $2 Pick Six 7/7/9/2/4/10,12 Cost is $4 - I'll buy it 10 times they are all short.
The pick 6 is the best bet in horse racing. Having said that, you still need to be selective about when you play it. Tomorrows card is challenging. There are at least one or two obvious choices in every race but also many sneaky horses. My main ticket will be 9x5x6x2x2x2. I will have some small back up tickets investing about 6k. To me the two toughest races are the 7th and 9th but if you go more than 2 deep you may as well not play because it's pure speculation after that.
Dave Liftin is outstanding, and I for one, am appreciative of his sharing his opinions and knowledge. It would be nice if some of you could disagree with his selections without making personal attacks, but I suppose civility went out the door a long time ago. I will play this pick 6, absolutely. Why not ... it may be like purchasing lottery tickets, but you can't win if you don't play. As for One Sock Down ... ppfffttttt.. ~~> 7/2 morning line in a SIX HORSE FIELD; it's not like somebody just discovered plutonium.
Who wants to handicap and bet one's money on a pick 6 in which there are 10-12 bad horses in each race. How do you handicap races like that? How do you do it? I'll take my betting money elsewhere.
Betting at Belmont as like counting money out your car window travelling 70 miles per hour...
Look at Litfin's race of the day tomorrow @ Belmont. Nowhere in his analysis does he mention the horse thats going to win, ONE SOCK DOWN. Dave, you had three tries to pick the winner. Check this post tomorrow (Thursday) after Race 3.
Its amazing how many players out there can put these guys to shame but because everyone in the horse racing industry got in on someone else's merit, we dont have a chance.
Daily Racing Form, if given the opportunity I can handicap this guy handicapped!
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- 5.Posted 05/16/2013 10:55AM