06/14/2011 4:27PM

Belmont Park pick six carryover


DRF Coverage:

David Grening takes a look at the "very difficult sequence"
Crist: Big Belmont Carryover, As Tough as it Gets

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Race-by-Race Analysis

By Marcus Hersh

BEST BET: Prince of Danger (6th race)

Fourth Race

1. Imaging 2. Halefellow Wellmet 3. Clear Attempt
Figure the race will be bet as duel between likely chalk Clear Attempt and Colossal Gift, but really, I don't trust either 3yo at short odds; 4yo IMAGING almost won a stakes over the BEL course pre-long-term layoff, and, reading between running lines, seems very much a horse better suited to greater BEL circumference than tight Gulfstream course, over which he made three post-layoff starts; six works prepping for this; distance should be within range; barn rolling pretty good right now. Atlantic City - Belmont route one not often travelled by open allowance winners, but HALEFELLOW WELLMET made strong and steady progress throughout one-mile debut at ATL; Caveat on bottom of pedigree suggests 10fs within range; quality, of course, a question. CLEAR ATTEMPT pushed a quick pace at GP two back in turf debut, and wonder if he was farther off lead last out at KEE only because of tough start; chalk clearly capable but doesn't have to win.

Fifth Race

1. Grace and Courage 2. Rose's Turn 3. Fleeting Glance
GRACE AND COURAGE is 1-14 in career and 0-7 on turf, but hey, you're not finding anyone without warts in this N2L claiming turf sprint; has gotten only one turf start at class level this low, and that produced close third-place finish last out in '11 debut; shortening up to 6fs seems like a good thing; worked twice between starts. Class-dropping ROSE'S TURN figures to be a player if she handles turf, over which she's never raced; do note lone win came in a three-horse field. FLEETING GLANCE three-quarters behind the top pick last time, and shorter distance here would seem to favor GRACE more than GLANCE. Neither of the last-start maiden turf winners, Must Be Love or Stoneridge, finished with real spark.

Sixth Race

1. Prince of Danger 2. Starlantic 3. Our Brave Warrior
PRINCE OF DANGER beat nine in front-running career debut win last summer, then broke slowly from rail in two subsequent starts, neither of which was dreadful; all those races came at Calder against open company, making this his first race against fellow NY-breds; new trainer is having an excellent year; the work pattern -- all they way back to Aprul 27 bullet drill - looks outstanding. STARLANTIC's half-mile work on June 5 was fastest of 72 at the distance; a tough of rate-ability could serve him well in race that might have fast, contested early pace. OUR BRAVE WARRIOR flopped in stakes to finish off 2010 campaign, but second-out maiden win was good enough to contend here, and he's favorably drawn outside the other pace.

Seventh Race

1. All About Alex 2. Ms Stilleto 3. Australis Princess
Main-track-only ALL ABOUT ALEX looks odds on and formidable if the race is rained onto dirt. MS STILLETO lost rider in May 27 start, bue c ame back with lively half-mile drill on June 7; by far the most accomplished grass horse in the race, and a four-time winner over BEL course; a little concerned with the dull performance to close 2010 followed by drop to $25K here. AUSTRALIS PRINCESS' best turf runs last year came at AQU, but she could wind up loose on lead here, and is dangerous if left alone in front going a mile.

Eighth Race

1. Backcountry Boy 2. Hooligan's Delight 3. D J's Revenge
And if you have gotten this far in the Pick 6 -- good luck finishing off the deal in these last two races. I suppose many may take the tack of leaning heavily on favored D J's Revenge in this skullbuster of an N2L turf-sprint claimer, but he appears to be drawn inside a couple other speeds, and wasnt' exactly lights-out facing only seven foes for $35K tag on June 3; back on short rest for lesser price doesn't feel quite right, either. HOOLIGAN'S DELIGHT's two turf tries came in last start of one form cycle and first of next, and one was a route, which he can't do; the grass-oriented pedigree might not have had a chance to express itself yet; plenty of workout activity; ground-saving mid-pack trip behind contested pace could help. HOOLIGAN'S DELIGHT finished 2010 with a thud, but he shows a pretty good win over the course and distance about this time last year.

Ninth Race

1. Bayshore Blaze 2. R Clever Cat 3. Galaxy Jet
The trainer hasn't won a race all year and the jockey hasn't won a race all meet, but first-time starter BAYSHORE BLAZE has several encouraging drills on tab and a pedigree that looks all right for a turf sprint; I fully acknowledge the selection to be a mere guess in an impossible race. R CLEVER CAT culled out of Shirreffs barn in SoCal after two middling MSW starts last year; new connections think so much of him they start him out in a lowly $16K claimer; he's going to take betting and is a total unknown on turf, with only mild grass breeding; could be. GALAXY JET's third at this class level and distance last out apparently would put him in the win mix here; pairing up career-best performances on fairly short rest? Iffy, and gone is the 20-1 from last time.