09/18/2001 11:00PM

Belmont Park analysis for 9/21


Best Bet: Too Scarlet (2nd Race)


1. Seneca Falls 2. Candy Adventure 3. Tender Feelings

SENECA FALLS gets the Lasix & blinkers makeover for her return, while dropping to price of fast-finishing debut as a juvenile; one of seven in the field who makes the turf-to-dirt switch. CANDY ADVENTURE was a decent fourth this track & distance July 12, which was her only maiden-claiming try; deep closer may have too much ground to make up in the stretch. TENDER FEELINGS, WINCHIME and BRUSHAWAY THEBLUES descend from special-weight ranks for capable outfits.


1. Too Scarlet 2. Karakorum Crusader 3. Must Be Me

TOO SCARLET made up ground after racing very greenly in debut, and then looked much more professional second time out when she led throughout at 3-5; likely repeater. After six in-the-money finishes from her first seven starts, KARAKORUM CRUSADER finally broke through to graduate at Sar off a 37-day gap between starts; has had a 40-day break leading to initial try vs. winners, blew out nicely last week. MUST BE ME ran well in both starts on Bel main track in June, notably big maiden win in the mud, and there is rain in the forecast for Friday.


1. Patriot Leader 2. Inca Halo 3. Takethe Call

PATRIOT LEADER set pressured pace, and held well to decision some of these when second for this price at Sar most recently; slight edge. INCA HALO gets switch to Bailey after pair of runner-up finishes off the drop to maiden-claiming company upstate; taken up while racing greenly into the turn Aug. 29. TAKETHE CALL was a pace factor in both third-place finishes during the summer; several useful 5f works for drop to $50K.


1. Breadknife 2. Smiling Virginian 3. Sweet Runner

BREADKNIFE was a good second to up-in-class repeater You And I Babe in her only start at Bel this year, and followed that race with a typically game performance to prevail in optional claimer at Mth; must outlast several other early-pace types. SMILING VIRGINIAN goes first time for a tag after chasing stakes-placed Celtic Melody (who came back to win again easily later at Sar); wet track could be a plus. SWEET RUNNER received a perfect trip stalking PAHOKEE when claimed out of win for $25K last month, and was flattered when the latter came back to win her next start for $32,500.


1. Riskaverse 2. Lujean Lujean 3. Cozie Advantage

RISKAVERSE was extricated from traffic toward the inside, split rivals and drew off quickly in an impressive debut on this turf course July 13; was going well late when tried on dirt initial allowance start. LUJEAN, like Riskaverse, graduated at the expense of Farewell My Lovely when also a convincing first-out winner on the grass; obvious threat. COZIE ADVANTAGE and TEMPO WEST come off maiden wins, and they were subsequently purchased and turned over to John Kimmel and Bobby Frankel, respectively. The latter adds Lasix, and could move up if race switches to a wet main track.


1. Rich Reward 2. Bobby's Buckaroo 3. Crafty Runner

RICH REWARD was impressive winning on this surface June 21, and did well to finish second most recently behind Left Bank, who came back to run second in the Forego Handicap; call in exceptionally tough high-priced claimer. BOBBY'S BUCKAROO turns back to his best distance after chasing the win machine Burning Marque at 7fs; good enough to run second to Forego winner Delaware Township earlier this year. CRAFTY RUNNER comes off two hard-fought wins; Crafty Prospector colt might relish an off track.


1. Atelier 2. Crescent Coast 3. Poivre

ATELIER finished determinedly to nose out recent Grade 1 winner Pompeii in a muddy renewal of the Next Move Handicap back in March, and has been freshened since a disappointing effort in the Shuvee; handles wet. CRESCENT COAST has changed trainers to Richard Dutrow Jr., after being overmatched in the Hempstead Handicap, and outsprinted by the speedy Imadeed; sharp winner this surface & distance three back. POIVRE has won twice from four local starts; difficult task when second to loose-on-lead Tugger to begin current form cycle.


1. Peak Dancer 2. Buckle Down Ben 3. Dayton Flyer

PEAK DANCER is on the improve since adding blinkers, winning both starts at Sar while showing fine tactical speed; has experience with Bel mud. BUCKLE DOWN BEN was sluggish in the W.Va Derby, but rebounded with a good effort in Sar N3X allowance; has been unable to put two good races together for quite some time. DAYTON FLYER turned back several early challengers and held stubbornly to decision favored Volponi when returned to preferred surface; should be able to secure the early lead.


1. Actuary's Son 2. Jelly Roll Rock 3. Sonny The Sailor

ACTUARY'S SON had 13 lengths on MR HILARIOUS when a stubborn second in return to dirt last month; caught a tough field in the mud here May 25. JELLY ROLL ROCK and SONNY THE SAILOR were off slowly in their respective debuts at Sar, but showed some ability to rally for fourth. Either could improve enough to handle the top pick, who has already had 14 chances.