09/17/2001 11:00PM

Belmont Park analysis for 9/20

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BEST BET: YOU AND I BABE (6TH RACE)

LONGSHOT: DULCITO (1ST RACE)

FIRST RACE

1. Bring Plenty 2. Ermelinda 3. Dulcito

BRING PLENTY whiffed in three starts on SoCal circuit after being imported to U.S., but has since been freshened by Drysdale and may appreciate stretching out to 1 1/4 miles; call in scramble. ERMELINDA finished strongly for second in two allowance starts at 1 1/16 miles after maiden graduation for tag at Mth; sire won Ky. Derby & Travers at this distance. DULCITO drops from two stakes, the latest a four-wide trip from post 12; factor off mdn win on Bel turf three back.

SECOND RACE

1. Gayle's Glory 2. T.N.T. Red 3. Riotous Miss

GAYLE'S GLORY was 10 1/2 lengths behind T.N.T. RED at finish of their

Aug. 22 meeting, but was coming off a win three weeks earlier and has never been the type to put good races together; pattern indicates she's ready to rebound once again. T.N.T. RED had useful tightener at 1 1/8 miles first time out in two months, and still managed to hang on for fourth over After You (who came back to beat several of these Sept. 2); just 1-for-23 past two years, but will try to wire 'em. RIOTOUS MISS showed surprising early speed in Sar finale; back to Bel turf, where she upset $60K mares at 8-1 in May.

THIRD RACE

1. Private Emblem 2. Red's Red 3. Finality

PRIVATE EMBLEM set pressured pace and held gamely along rail behind 3-2 fave Ivars Blues when unveiled in faster division of Aug. 20 dash; rates edge if able to draw in from also-eligible list. RED'S RED comes out of the slower division, in which he was pounded to 1-2 but settled for second while neglecting to change leads in stretch; benefits if top pick doesn't get in. FINALITY returns for top outfit after finishing fifth of 11 vs. open company at Kee in April; likely to make presence felt from inside.

FOURTH RACE

1. Arromanches 2. Bullet Buzz 3. Esteemed Friend

ARROMANCHES has upped lifetime record to a remarkable 23-for-64 after winning five straight at Mth; note his final win of 2000 was a lengthy score for this price on this track. BULLET BUZZ has been freshened after no-excuse third when set up perfectly by blistering pace at Sar Aug. 1; sharp both Bel starts, beginning with win this level when claimed from N.Y. bow. ESTEEMED FRIEND, like Arromanches, looks to have found a new lease on life after coming back from bowed tendon to win back-to-back starts off a two-year layoff; stakes winner has sufficient back class to handle another step up the ladder.

FIFTH RACE

1. Ens Alwojood 2. Our Majestic Cat 3. Wild Tip

ENS ALWOJOOD dueled through demanding opening half-mile, opened up in

midstretch and led to final yards of Aug. 30 debut; slower early fractions may enable her to have enough gas in the tank for this longer sprint. OUR MAJESTIC CAT found best stride belatedly when a non-threatening fifth behind top pick first time out; Day sticks, improvement seems very likely. WILD TIP showed some ability at Del as a juvenile; encouraging workouts for trainer who was very "live" at Sar this summer.

SIXTH RACE

1. YOU AND I BABE (BEST BET) 2. Custom Made 3. Shop Here

YOU AND I BABE has been in the best form of her career since brought back from three-month layoff, showing the ability to handle pace pressure and keep fighting late; must fend off early advances from ROYAL BANQUET and/or LOOK OF THE LYNX. CUSTOM MADE may get the perfect stalking trip from outside post in short field, after finishing evenly in her first N2X assignment; big entry-level allowance win at Bel two back. SHOP HERE showed considerable promise before coming up short in Astarita and Valley Stream last fall; purposeful work tab for comeback, bred for wet.

SEVENTH RACE

1. Dixie Two Thousand 2. Little Rich 3. Source

DIXIE TWO THOUSAND won four straight on the New Jersey circuit, running

through conditions with versatile display of tactical speed; should be nicely positioned just off leaders in speed-packed sprint. LITTLE RICH has won four of last six starts while hanging up big pace figures, but has given way readily in two starts at this level; pressure can be expected from the returning MR. KUCK, and perhaps LASER CON, should that half of the Dutrow-trained entry start. SOURCE comes off big-figure win when claimed out of $35K sprint to begin current form cycle; 2-for-2 when able to lead at the pace call but 0-for-5 otherwise, and seems unlikely to outsprint Little Rich early.

EIGHTH RACE

1. Descapate 2. Orphan Avie 3. Shiny Band

DESCAPATE was nothing short of sensational at Sar in first start for Asmussen, following up off-the-pace debut win with a front-running tour de force over entry-level types; eligible for a softer allowance condition, but talent like this has been known to break the rules. ORPHAN AVIE has also shown some ability, winning three of five at 6fs, including two at Bel and a gutsy Sar score from inside post in a very tough N2X sprint; may give top pick a good test. SHINY BAND wanted no part of Flute at 1 1/8 miles on July 27, but rebounded immediately and is now 3-for-3 sprinting since Lasix was added at Bel in June; slop a plus.

NINTH RACE

1. Flo's Charm 2. River Spirit 3. Brocco Bob

Blinkers seem to have made the difference with FLO'S CHARM, who angled three wide into the lane to demolish state-bred maidens upstate; right back. RIVER SPIRIT was unhurried early, angled out in upper stretch and finished gamely behind BROCCO BOB (two-time beaten favorite at Sar) in seasonal bow; note maiden win came off Sar-to-Bel switch when a second-time starter a year ago. STRIKE THE BRASS was second best in all three fast-track starts at Bel spring meet; freshened after chasing fast pace upstate, can hang on for share of exotics.