09/25/2013 9:51AM

Belmont: Closer Looks for September 26, 2013


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Race 1

From Tiz Moment On
Inside conitinues to do welll in races under a mile - posts 1-3 have accounted for 14 of the first 27 winners; showed speed in debut before she hit the brakes pretty hard but hey, it was just her debut, it came on turf and vs. straight maidens so you can be a bit forgiving; can benefit from that outing, today's drop and maybe the surface switch, too - after all, daddy was HOY due to dirt prowess and mommy was a multiple SW and G3 SP sprinting on dirt.
Debut was most encouraging; showed speed, took command into the lane and looked like the winner before she got nailed in the final yards; sit came at this level, too, and she finished well clear of the rest (4 1/4 lengths); Beyer came back OK (60) but she can improve on that to be sure; worked twice here since; any move forward will make her tough to handle.
Long Island Lee
Sire Midnight Lute is 2 for first 50 (4%) with debuting 2yos, according to DRF sire stats; sire sire won 6 of 13 for $2.6 million, won G1 BC Sprint (twice), G1 Forego, also multiple G1 SP, champion sprinter; unraced dam's 1st foal; plenty of smart works for Violette Jr. who of course is well known for firing first out (14%).
Chased th epace in her Aug. 29 debut at SAR at thsi level and stayed on decently to be 4th, even if she was no threat (beaten 7 1/2 lengths); must make up quite a bit of ground on Winekeeper, though, as that gal was 2nd, beating this filly by over 7 lengths; can surely improve with that run under her belt and Galluscio a solid 13% 2nd time out; lone sib to race is Funny Lady (1 win, $52K, SP).
Sire Value Plus gets over 12% 2yo debut winners; sire won 3 of 15 for $414K, was a SW, 2nd in G1 Futurity at 2, 2nd in G1 Florida Derby at 3; dam's 4 foals are all multiple winners including Forest Passage (4 wins, $63K) and this one's full-bro Salt Free (2 wins, $43K); dam won 2 of 11 for $78K, SW; plenty of solid works, though it's a tad disconcerting she worked here June 12 and then not again for over 2 months (Aug. 20).
Go West Marie
No factor in her straight maiden debut at SAR Aug. 25 but again, you can always forgive a debut run; may benefit from that outing and today's drop; Gullo also adds blinkers for 1st time, a move with which he's had success (4 for last 14, 29%) and Prado stays with her; 1 of 2 sibs to race is winner Roman Counsel (1 win, $70K).

Race 2

Skinny Margarita
Offspring of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who amassed a total of 4.38 million, have scored in 11 percent of their debuts; this filly's dam lost her only race; winning siblings include 465K earner and G2 winner Lismore Knight.
Darnley Bay
Identical Beyers earned this month, the last one at today's trip, suggests she is a legit exacta threat once again; should be able to stay within striking distance and retains Castellano who has been riding in excellent form; obvious contender.
Kimmie's Girl
Drops way down the ladder after easing to a walk upstate; her sire won a G3 stakes and 456K while the dam was without a victory in 5 tries; there are no winning siblings to mention; cannot endorse at this time.
Princes On Thelake
Scored at the shore this past Saturday so eligibility issues arise; had some modest workouts over the local training track prior to that performance; pay close attention to announcements regarding this one's status.
She was chasing fast fractions in her latest turf attempt; in the previous run, she was clearly defeated by some of these same rivals; the extension to seven furlongs will likely work against her even though today's early pace may be modest.
Can be forgiven that first venture as she got away very slowly in her maiden voyage; the mare' s sire won a G2 and 1.43 million; the dam won 4 of 25 and 110K; sib to 42K earner Grinnel whose 4 career victories were all in dirt sprints.
Lovely Bella
Makes her belated 2013 debut but did not show much enthusiasm in any of her efforts last season; returning breeze pattern is on the light side and she cannot be recommended as a serious play this afternoon.
High Inflation
Like Darnley Bay, she seems stuck in second gear; draws yet another wide post but that is not the major drawback; this is her 14th attempt in these ranks and she must find a way to get into the races sooner; worthy of some backing in exotic wagering.
Toast to Ashley
Showed much more pace prompting ability in her first try at the claiming level; upgraded in her most recent half-mile breeze and should be attending an easier pace now than in that last assignment; should offer fair betting value.

Race 3

Toss his race in his second start when he couldn't keep up to Grade 2 Sanford winner Wired Bryan and he's been pretty solid; interesting to see him back on the main track following his impressive score in his first try on grass, though; he couldn't keep up with Howaboutwe at Saratoga but it's possible the muddy conditions had something to do with it; 3 of 4 sibs are multiple winners including Manitoba Derby winner Smugglers Hold; tough call.
He looked good beating Carolinian in his second start and then had an excuse when he got bumped leaving the starting gate in the Law Enforcement; it would have been nice to have seen him show more after the start, though; both sibs are winners the best being $116K Manchurian High who won five races on turf and placed in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special; prefer others.
So Lonesome
He ran an intersting race when he won his debut, breaking sharply and then it looked like he might be in trouble when he couldn't keep up early; he rallied late, though, and won going away; goes for a new barn and the past five years Bush has a 10 percent strike rate with new shooters; all three sibs to race are multiple winners incuding $233K stakes winner No Spin; contender.
Court Dancer
This is a filly facing boys but she was a very impressive debut winner and the 76 Beyer Speed Figure stands out; she wasn't all out to earn it, either; 3 winning sibs to report the best being $207K earner City Spirit; the past five years Weaver 0 for 7 with 2-year-olds making their second start following a maiden win, but three did finish second; big shot.
Double Gold
Like the way he won his debut from a stalking position and he could get a similar trip here; we're willing to forgive him for coming up empty after being the inside horse in a three-horse duel which helped set up the winner in the Law Enforcement; he is a half-brother Grade 2 winner St. Avril and the barn does a good job with their babies; the pick.
Captain Toews
Second from Antonucci overcame a lot to win his debut and he is the only horse with a win over this track; the Beyer Speed Figure came back a bit low but with any kind of start it would have been a lot higher; he's the first foal out of mare who won on the lawn; lasix added and can see him taking a big step forward with a race behind him; don't sell short.

Race 5

Superior Sarah
Plenty of good work from late 2011 into June 2012; trouble is, then came a dull run at SAR in Aug. 2012 and she hasn't been seen since; that's a long layoff to deal with; the good news is she returns without a tag attached, has been working well and has fired before off the bench - though those were much, much shorter layoffs.
Brown Eyed Nance
Like the rail filly she hasn't been seen in a long time - she last ran 2nd to a runaway winner here in June 2012; was claimed for $30K that day, too, making the layoff even more distressing; let's face it, you don't claim a horse merely for the sake of feeding it so that type of layoff makes you think something went awry; the good news is they bring her back without a tag and note a touch of back-class to this girl; still, the hurdles are not insignificant.
Arlene's Holiday
2 wins and 2 2nds in her 4 dirt sprints; yes, those all came at PRX so she'll have to show she can bring that performance level here, but she's worked well at other places so she may not be a one-track pony; was gone a long time (9 months) but Breen felt good enough about her to return her in a turf route stakes at PRX Sept. 7 and she was a respectable 5th after dueling; now has that under her belt, drops and returns to HER game (sprinting on dirt), meaning there are quite a few things to like here.
Five Star Momma
Some decent work this year, though you have to go back to July 2012 to find her last win; wasn't disgraced when 3rd in a stakes at SAR Aug. 5 and then when 4th in a spot similar to this there Aug. 30; has some speed and versatility, but could it be she's always going to find someone just a smidge better at this level, hmmmm?
Won 2 of last 3 and ran 2nd in the lone loss in that stretch when she ran into a freakish winner here June 30; speed is her primary asset and not only does she come into this off a big win in the SAR slop (so she has no issue with footing) but Rodriguez saw fit to claim her (27% off a claim) and wheels her back ina spot where he can't lose her via another claim.
Love Contract
Tough to build much of a case as things stand now; oh, she had things going along wonderfully in the the fall/winter of 2011/2012, first at PRX and then on AQU's inner when 3rd in a stakes; alas, things went south; some drops in class didn't bring about the needed form reversal, either, and then after 10 months off she returned at PRX Aug. 6, dueled and fizzled, and hasn't run since; some nice works, but a drastic turnaround is required.

Race 6

Tricky Tiffany
Beaten at least 16 lengths in her 3 efforts at this level; she got a feel of the course in last but not sure how much she really got out of the race; there is a turf winner in the family but with limited speed, this miss may find herself behind the 8 ball turning for home.
If there is a positive from this form it starts with fact her highest Beyer came on the grass; the 4th and 8th finishers in last took maiden $25K claimers next out and 4 others were in the money including the winner who returned to run second beaten just over 4 in a $78K stakes; love steady work pattern, looms late factor if at all.
Was inching toward the winner on a surface she may have disliked; one half sis to win 4 times but both siblings tried grass to no avail; wide in last 3, the drop can only help; must respect everything this outfit sends out.
The extended layoff until last July runs up the obvious red flag; backers can point to the fact that one sibling won on grass once and another earned over $140K; would have liked to have seen a local work.
Baal Perazim
Repeated defeats vs. softer and after this many defeats, it's hard to see the upside; key off the local turf race in July and he has to be left in the mix; rates upset glance.
Love Is Key Kaz
Just held together in the 6/13 race but came out several lengths while riders used elbows and then the stewards got involved; Kate is a Ten exited that race to take a state-bred MSW, and was then 3rd beaten a half in a $20K state-bred optional; try to get a good look at him on the track before taking a swing.
See See See
Another that has had umpteen chances to get there; she was dead last on an off surface in a cheaper spot in April; not my kind of play.
Going Going Gone
She has teased several times and the winner of the 2012 closer took 2 state-bred $25K optionals since; note that career top Beyer of 65 did come in a return situation and she may have not liked the rail that day; fits very nicely here.
Miss McKeown
Mirror races so far and none were pretty; 2 for 9 dam never tasted turf; this is her first to race; no speed, no asset; hard to adore.
Elissa Town
Speightstown about 17% with firsters in a 351-runner sample, about 12% with first-time grass runners in a 237-starter grid; sire was champion sprinter of 2004, earned over $1.2 million, was never on turf; dam 0 for 4; several multiple race winners in the family including double turf winner and near $125K earner Grand Stage; she debuts for twice her purchase price.
Bebes Passion
Cuts back but was beaten 34 lengths the last time at this demanding distance on dirt; she saw all the heels the last time in a sprint; passing.
Viva Del Prado
She drops again but wonder how high the expectations can really be for this $1,800 purchase?; there is a grass winner in the family and miss does have sneaky speed; looms a brief threat at least.

Race 7

Big Love
She wasn't able to get much going in her career debut after going to post at over 35-1, but she is by a strong turf sire and her dam was a G3 winner while winning 5 of 15 starts for 188k, including 3 of 7 turf starts for 150k.
Lemon Lashes
Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and G3 stakes placed dam won 4 of 10 turf starts for 183k; this miss is a 1/2 to Congo (5-18, 178k, including 0-for-3 over turf); not going to be shocked if this 200k purchase is ready for better the second time around.
The Blonde Peque
Another daughter of top turf influence Giant's Causeway being represented in here, and this filly is out of a minor stakes winning dam who won 9 of 25 starts for 186k, including 5 of 10 turf starts for 123k; she's an obvious threat based on what she's shown so far.
Glenwood Pines
Half-sister to stakes winner Cascadilla Falls (3-13, 140k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 77k) put together a decent run in her latest outing when finishing right behind today's rival Giant's Jewel, and the winner from that race returned to win next out at Sar on 9/1 going 7f vs. 35k claimers with a 69 Beyer.
Bitty Kitty
She was soundly defeated by today's rival Giant's Jewel in her latest outing and this filly will need to find a way to step it up over what she's done in her first three attempts if she's to have a say in the outcome.
Judy G
She's been a pretty consistent performer, but her better races have been run against maiden claiming competition, and she is looking like the type that might hang around the maiden ranks for a while.
Antrim Colleen
She clearly took a step in the right direction at second asking and she shows up for a barn that has been getting the job done with turf starters lately; certainly not going to be shocked to find out that this filly still has more to show us.
Giant's Jewel
Yet another daughter of Giant's Causeway signed on in this spot and her recent form has been plenty strong enough to give her a competitive look in this spot; she has her share of appeal with Castellano taking over, but keep in mind that she's seeking her first career win in start number 12.
Proud Vixen
Of the horses in the main body of this race, only Giant's Jewel has made a dirt start, and this miss has seen her form improve with the addition of blinkers; winner from latest won next out here on 9/11 going 1m vs. 25k OPC's with a 105 Beyer.
Winning Scoop
Her Beyer Speed Figures improved with the move to turf two races ago, and when seeing that she doesn't have much of a turf pedigree, perhaps it's worth giving her another chance to see what she can do over dirt; her dam was a G3 winner while winning 5 of 15 starts for 337k, and four of her wins were earned routing over dirt.
Lunar Surge
This looks like it will be a favorable spot for this filly to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf and it's interesting to see that she'll be making her first start with Lasix and blinkers; winner from latest returned to win next out at Lrl on 9/19 going 1 1/16m vs. N1X rivals with an 87 Beyer.

Race 8

Unspoken Rule
Sire gets nearly 11% first out winners from his offspring but sees just 5% of his runners win first time on the green; dam won twice sprinting and finished off the board in her lone turf start prior to dropping 2 winners including multiple G3 SP Schoolyard Dreams, a 343K earner who twice finished second from 3 starts on the lawn; works don't offer many clues as to her ability but the barn does a solid job getting them ready to fire first out.
Gets another new pilot after again finishing just over 4 lengths off the winner going long on the Spa lawn; runner up in her last returned to break her maiden in an off the turfer here last week; this gal's G1 SW dam was a G2 SW main track sprinter so maybe the turn back to this one turn heat benefits her in a field whose main body doesn't contain any others with surface experience; one to beat.
Sire gets 13% first out winners and 6% first time surface winners from his offspring and the dam was a turf winner who dropped 5 winners including 643K earner Logic Way, a G2 SP, SW who won 5 times on the lawn, and G3 SW router and 370K earner Big Truck who was 0 for 3 on grass; barn does solid work on this type of footing but their runners usually get better with racing.
Walk Close
Sire gets 12% debut winners and 8% initial surface winners while the G1 SP, SW dam was a 3 time sprint winner and 258K earner; lone sib ran third in her lone spin which came on turf; worktab is light for her uveiling, but it's tough to question anything this outfit does on the green of right out of the box.
Cosi Celeste
Gets a shot on the lawn after failing to threaten the winner in any of her 3 dirt starts thus far; barn hasn't been going so well here and they are in the middle of a poor run with those moving to the infield; sire is just 4 for 118 with his initial surface runners; winless dam did drop a first time turf winner as well as a couple of main track SWs including 546K earner Fight for Ally.
Miss Lech
Chased the pace when run past by the next out G1 Spinaway winner (98 Beyer) in the Saratoga slop after taking plenty of tote support; barn excels with its runners who have had a race and Castellano sticks with her as she goes to the green; sire gets 9% first surface winners and the dam won twice over the footing prior to dropping G2 SW main track router Guilt Trip and one overseas turf winner.
Sire gets 12% debut winners and 8% first time surface winners from his offspring; SP dam did win first time on the lawn prior to dropping another foal who is winless from 7 starts; barn's second runner in here did go for a decent amount at auction last year and though their main pilot is on their other runner in here this pilot has had some recent luck for them.
Saratoga Karaoke
Beaten chalk in each of her dirt starts will move to the green for this one; she sat a good stalking spot while out in the track against claimers at Saratoga and now she'll step back up to face MSWs; she's the first foal to race out of an unraced dam; sire gets about 13% first time surface winners.
Didn't get off to a great start and still made a decent mid race move in the short Spa sprint first time out; barn doesn't do so well second out, but this gal did return to work a sharp half mile for this; sire gets about 9% first surface winners from his offspring and the dam's other foal to try the green in the states was 0 for 3 over the stuff.
Ribbon Cutter
First part of the Darley coupling broke well first out in the Saratoga slop but didn't have much to offer thereafter; filly boasts a slow interim breeze and her sire gets 8% first turf winners from his offspring; dam's lone win came routing and this is her first foal to race.
Prove It All Night
AE showed good speed in each of her starts but she had little to offer late in those runs and she'll start from an outside draw if she gets to go here; maybe the turn back helps, but her other sib to try the green was 0 for 3 over the footing so don't know that she'll take a big step forward second time over the footing.
Fingers Crossed
Second part of the Darley entry showed some speed in her well bet upstate debut but looked rather short thereafter in that one; sire gets 8% first turf winners and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green; AE does go for a barn that does nice work with its second out runners.

Race 10

Social Rebellion
Brief factor when hooking clear winner in the turf debut; 8/11 place horse graduated at SAR next out by a head with a 78 Beyer for Pletcher; must display more.
Sassy Salsa
Improved with wraps removed in last; dam's lone win came on turf as older horse; lone half bro won once on turf as older horse; will at least muddle the pace.
A bit more speed in last but he really gave up the ghost; dam 0 for 4; both siblings won but neither at 2 or on grass; could need softer to shine.
Maggie's Lad
Freud about 12% with juvenile first-timers after 196 starters, about 13% with first-time turfers in a 225-runner grid; sire, was 2nd a half in debut at 2 at The Curragh at 6 furlongs on a yielding course, graduated there at 3 at about a mile on turf; half of dam's 4 wins came on turf, she was 0 for 3 at 2; all 4 sibs won, 3 cashed at 2, 3 won on grass; legged up in Florida, may like it here.
Maybrys Challenge
Maybe he disliked the fence to kick it off; dam 3rd in best juvenile out, won thrice on grass, earned about $125K; this is her first to race; rider has had success for this barn.
Tell It to the Man
Quiet American has hit with about 5% of his juvenile firsters in a 399-horse sample, with about 7% of his first-time turfers in a 482-horse sample; sire was a Grade 1 winner, earned over $750K, failed to win on grass; 2 for 11 dam turf only as older horse; this is her first to race; he looks fit enough.
I Got Id
See Maggie's Lad for sire stats; dam 0 for 5; both sibs won but neither on grass or at 2; note the work at SAR on grass.
Harbor King
Colt basically jast passed some tired ones; dam 0 for 4; lone half sis was 0 for 3; has some things to iron out.
Gone Country
See Maggie's Lad for sire stats; dam was unraced; 2 of 4 sibs won, one cashed at 2, 2 tried grass to no avail; respect solid Big A drills and this outfit.
Justice Dept
Back to square one on the cut back today; 2nd and 8th finishers in the debut graduated next out and the winner repeated in a Group 2 at Ascot, then made it 3 for 3 taking the Group 1 Morny with a 117 Racing Post Rating; dam 2nd in juvenile debut, won once sprinting on turf; lone half sis 0 for 2; fresh and dangerous.
Nin Pin
Smarty Jones 13 for 95 with juvenile debuters, about 18% first-time turfers in a 140-runner sample; sire took Philly juvenile debut by over 7 with a 84 Beyer, had perfect record blemished in the Belmont by Birdstone, never turfed; dam took a stakes but didn't win at 2 or on grass; lone half bro won at 2, was 0 for 3 on turf; note gap in drills till 8/23.
Colt trained solidly for debut and posted a :47 4/5 gate drill before bow; show horse in bow graduated next out at this level, then was 4th beaten over 6 in a $98K stakes; SW dam took debut at 2, earned nearly $100K; top kin La Concerto won at 2, took a stakes, earned nearly $250K; one to beat.
Empire Dreams
Two solid efforts under his belt and he had to be used from the fence in the SAR finale; that race came back solid as the 4th finisher took a $120K Finger Lakes stakes next out by over 18 lengths, the place horse was 2nd at this level and the winner repeated in a $98K stakes; dam was unraced; all 3 sibs won at 2 including over $100K earner Power Dreams; major threat.