09/16/2001 11:00PM

Belmont analysis for 9/19


Best Bet: Heavyweight Champ (6th race)

First Race

1. Desert Falcon 2. Dakota Appeal 3. Nature's Pick

DESERT FALCON stretches out and drops in class after finishing evenly for third first time off the claim by Dutrow; good-figure maiden winner at Bel in July. DAKOTA APPEAL's last running line at Delaware Park nearly two months ago is dreadful, but he has run well previously off similar freshenings; factor if able to recapture early-season form. NATURE'S PICK narrowly missed at 27-1 with blinkers added when last entered for tag; pace player along with GRACEFUL DEVIL.

Second Race

1. Fiorano 2. Pocahaba 3. Nypuddles

After chasing stakes repeater Shesastonecoldfox in debut, FIORANO failed at odds-on but was still well clear of the third-place finisher on Aug. 23; must outsprint POCAHABA. The latter raced greenly first time out, then forced pace twice in August but settled for fourth each time; wet track could be a plus. NYPUDDLES showed some ability when unveiled here July 4, and will be first-Lasix for return; owner-trainer-breeder has done well with first-crop Ormsby juveniles this year.

Third Race

1. Young Star 2. Wopping 3. Bringhometheloot

YOUNG STAR drops to a maiden-claiming sprint after dueling for lead in both starts at Sar vs. special-weight company; Bailey back on. WOPPING takes the same potentially powerful class drop; missed third by just a neck and a nose on Aug. 24, and prior to that chased an allowance repeater in the slop. BRINGHOMETHELOOT was off slowly, rallied approaching stretch, was bumped by eventual winner while attempting to split horses, then steadied late when winner drifted in through deep stretch of eventful Aug. 31 unveiling.

Fourth Race

1. Cherokee Girl 2. Perfect Design 3. Ghost Wrestling

CHEROKEE GIRL graduated from maiden ranks "with something left," and has trained swiftly leading up to initial try vs. winners; nicely drawn outside. PERFECT DESIGN flashed improved early speed second time out, then added Lasix and put it all together for determined pace-pressing victory; needs alert break from inside post. GHOST WRESTLING chased fast fractions and held for second when favored in similar allowance sprint Aug. 29; in the thick of it early.

Fifth Race

1. On Rye 2. Mohawk Marty 3. Cold Blow Lane

Just a neck, a head, and a nose separated ON RYE from second position last time out, and the winner, Quiet Ruler, returned a few days later to finish a fast-closing second in an allowance; two-time runner-up tries again with blinkers. MOHAWK MARTY was also fairly close to Quiet Ruler on Saratoga turf Aug. 3, and then forced pace again a month later when beaten a neck for second; main threat. COLD BLOW LANE has been head-and-head for the lead at the stretch call of last three starts only to come up short, the last two times as the favorite; tough post if able to draw in from the also-eligible list.

Sixth Race

1. HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMP (BEST BET) 2. The Call Of Duty 3. Three Strikes

HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMP set a ferocious pace and was unable to hold the lead through final yards of the Sar Special; returns to scene of maiden win, must ration out his speed to handle the stretch to 7fs. THE CALL OF DUTY was a good-looking debut winner at Saratoga, and subsequent workouts are very encouraging; sire set stakes record in the Met Mile on this track. THREE STRIKES and COACH KNIGHT also showed considerable promise winning their respective debuts for top outfits, but like The Call Of Duty they may have to cope with a faster pace due to presence of stakes-seasoned top pick.

Seventh Race

1. Secret Status 2. People's Princess 3. Pearly White

Since winning last year's Mother Goose at Bel, SECRET STATUS is 0-for-5 when favored in stakes company, but she has won both of her classified allowance routes, the latest coming at the expense of PEOPLE'S PRINCESS on a tiring muddy track at Sar; trained nicely toward last Saturday's scrapped Ruffian Handicap. PEOPLE'S PRINCESS gets favorable shift in weights for second try vs. top pick; in the exacta last five starts on fast tracks nationwide. PEARLY WHITE has won previously off the turf-to-dirt switch; reunited with The Mig, who was aboard for lengthy score in third-level allowance condition at Bel two back.

Eighth Race

1. Polish Miner 2. Beckon The King 3. Durmiente

POLISH MINER was in the best form of his life in two starts upstate; has trained nicely since then for McGaughey, who got off to 3-for-5 start at this meet. BECKON THE KING was outfinished through deep stretch after neglecting to change leads on Aug. 11, but it was a sharp try nonetheless, and he was claimed out of the race for $75,000 by a going concern. DURMIENTE moved up steadily nearing stretch and sustained the rally to just miss when dismissed at 12-1 most recently; won five in a row on Bel main track before weakening here in July.

Ninth Race

1. Indy Mood For Luv 2. Richie's Girls 3. Brandala

INDY MOOD FOR LUV won by an expanding margin vs. N1X fillies last out, and the margin could've been greater had she been allowed out of third gear; Pat Day appears to have taught her to rate quite effectively. RICHIE'S GIRLS has been a strong pace factor in recent starts at this level, twice managing to hold on for second at generous odds; may be hard-pressed early by EDEY'S VILLAGE. BRANDALA may not have cared for yielding course conditions when a fading seventh last out; has already won in this second-level condition.

- Editor's note - Dave Litfin's Belmont analysis, which is normally available to drf.com subscribers only, is being offered free of charge until Daily Racing Form can produce its full statistical and editorial product.