10/28/2005 12:00AM

BC Sprint analysis


This unusual BC Sprint lacks "quality" speed, which benefits LOST IN THE FOG. The 10-for-10 sprinter is quick enough to clear, he possesses an impressive middle move, and barring the unforeseen he can be long gone. But his low odds may not represent value, and if he is overbet, Grade 1 winner WILDCAT HEIR is a sensible alternative. The Beyer Figure of 117 he earned in August would have won 14 of the last 17 BC Sprints. Wildcat Heir has enough speed to stay within striking range, and at some point the final quarter-mile, he will give Lost in the Fog a challenge. His odds will be fat, relative to the chalk. ATTILA'S STORM is a fast allowance sprinter who may keep the favorite company early and could screw up the pace scenario. BATTLE WON ran poorly in his final prep, albeit on grass.

- Brad Free

WILDCAT HEIR looked very impressive when he cruised by 5 3/4 lengths at Monmouth, with a 117 Beyer in his return from an 8 1/2-month layoff. The subsequent time off is not ideal, but he has been training strongly, and looms as an attractive overlay. LOST IN THE FOG is a perfect 10 for 10, with nine of those wins by large margins. The only ordinary race he ran was a 1 1/4-length win in his lone previous race over this track. He can't afford to run that race today. If SILVER TRAIN is on his game, he will be a threat in the exotics. BATTLE WON is better than he showed as the beaten favorite on the turf at Keeneland and can get a part here based on his solid dirt form.

- Steve Klein

Either you're with LOST IN THE FOG or you're against him. I'm with him. It's become obvious that he's a freak and has never been seriously threatened in any of his 10 starts. Let the Horse of the Year debate begin raging. Ending the tricks behind him should be one of the more fun exercises today. I'm going to give SILVER TRAIN a try using two angles: He's an improving 3-year-old, and he has Dutrow on his side. Quite a few others look capable of filling out the tri's and supers, including BATTLE WON, whose latest turf try at Keeneland is easily forgiven; IMPERIALISM, whose connections may have hit on a brilliant idea by backing him up to six furlongs; and ELUSIVE JAZZ, who finally has come to hand at a very opportune moment.

- Marty McGee

BATTLE WON moves back to dirt after a tough-trip loss in a turf sprint at Keeneland, a scenario identical to the one that led to his strong upset victory in the Churchill Downs Handicap on Kentucky Derby Day. He has the speed to be close, but doesn't need the lead to win. TASTE OF PARADISE may have been a surprise when he won the Vosburgh, but that was a solid effort and he might have a distinct affinity for Belmont Park. LOST IN THE FOG deserves credit for holding winning form for a year while shipping cross-country many times, but he has only beaten a bunch of patsies. This is his first start against real horses, and for that, you get 3-5. SILVER WAGON steps up, but ran big winning the Jerome, has improved for Dutrow, and will be a nice price.

- Mike Watchmaker