10/27/2004 11:00PM

BC Mile Analysis


Explosive 3-year-old BLACKDOUN won powerfully three times at Del Mar against suspect foes, and his best race was at this mile distance. Freshened by two-time Mile-winning trainer Julio Canani, Blackdoun was supplemented for $135,000 and is set for a career best. He is better now than he was in Europe. WHIPPER has accomplished more than the top pick, including winning a Group 1 in Europe against older, on soft ground possibly similar to what he runs over Saturday. The top-class miler fits on merit. European DIAMOND GREEN repeatedly has proven himself against Group 1 foes and fits if one bad race can be ignored. Considering his odds, forgiving one race may not be a bad idea. Artie Schiller is consistent, but may want longer. Canani-trained Special Ring will set the pace.


NOTHING TO LOSE made a strong bid into contention and pulled away to win the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland in impressive fashion. He is in peak form and should offer a reasonable price. SINGLETARY raced wide and just missed at Santa Anita with a contending Beyer in his return from the sidelines. Factor in some improvement second time back and he will be dangerous at attractive odds. Use him in the exotics and for a backup win bet. MR O'BRIEN earned a contending Beyer in the Kelso and should be included in the exotics. Special Ring would be tough with his best, but the spacing of his races is a concern. Six Perfections won this race last year, but has been unimpressive this year and will be overbet.


WHIPPER was just three weeks removed from a lifetime best Timeform rating when he negotiated a turn for the first time and finished welll at Longchamp; overachieving $4,000 purchase has beaten SIX PERFECTIONS, drew a much better post for this than she did, and will be a much better price. Six Perfections, however, was able to win the '03 BC Mile from post 12, and is on essentially the same schedule; those who run well in the Mile once often return to do so again. ARTIE SCHILLER has lost only once on turf this year, to Kitten's Joy, when he had to rally from 16-length deficit and flattened out late; good shipper handles any layout, appears razor sharp after course-record romp, and has been manhandling some very good 3-year-olds all year.


SPECIAL RING is coming into this Da Hoss-style. He has had only one outing since his troubled eighth in this race last year. But, Special Ring's one start this year was a strong score in the Eddie Read, in which he earned a Beyer Figure (110) that is as good as any other here has earned on turf this year. Plus, his trainer has won this race twice. WHIPPER turned in one of the best mile wins in Europe this year in the Prix Jacques le Marois. He has pointed to this since and a big effort is expected. SIX PERFECTIONS won this last year as a 3-year-old filly, but has disappointed this year. However, she was beaten only a length by Whipper in the Marois, a race she used as a springboard to her 2003 Breeders' Cup success.