10/27/2005 11:00PM

BC Juvenile Fillies analysis


The 14-length Matron romp by FOLKLORE earned a spectacular Beyer Speed Figure of 99, validated when third-place Along the Sea returned to finish two behind Adieu. It is a worry Folklore is stuck on the rail, but she has overcome it three times. ORIGINAL SPIN uncorked a devastating rally to win the Arlington-Washington Lassie in just her second start. She took dirt, swung out, and crushed. Runner-up Ex Caelis returned to run second in a Grade 2. WILD FIT was exposed as a closing sprinter when second in the Oak Leaf. No problem. She cuts back to one turn, and her Del Mar Debutante victory fits well in this long sprint with speed to run at. ADIEU has defeated Folklore twice, and should get a pressing trip in the clear. However, her speed figures are static. Longshot EX CAELIS will be finishing.

- Brad Free

If there were a legitimate closer in this field I would pick her. Unfortunately, there isn't. The next best thing is a horse for the course whose sprints suggest that she might handle the longer trip. It probably isn't a coincidence that the two best races SENSATION has run were both run over this track. With that in mind, she deserves the call. ORIGINAL SPIN is coming around quickly, and will be a prime contender with continued progress. FOLKLORE improved by leaps and bounds in her 14-length victory going seven furlongs in the Matron. She will be formidable if she runs as well today, but regression back to a more typical try seems a bit more likely at underlaid odds.

- Steve Klein

No one would be surprised if either of the lukewarm favorites, FOLKLORE or ADIEU, got the money here. Still, this group as a whole appears pretty well matched, so why would you want to take a short price? You have to like the way SENSATION has performed over this track. She romped by 11 lengths in her debut here July 13, when she came well backed, then went hot and cold in her two Saratoga tries, winning a first-level allowance by 4 1/2 lengths and finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Spinaway. Most recently, she drubbed lesser foes in the Grade 3 Astarita, but the 98 Beyer Speed Figure she earned says she could give them all they want. Trainer Stanley Hough and jockey Eibar Coa are among the most capable, but underrated, in their fields. ORIGINAL SPIN hails from an unheralded Chicago barn and has been a pleasant surprise. Her top-shelf effort in the Grade 3 Lassie suggests she could be a major player with Bailey up, especially with all the speed in here playing to her late-going style.

- Marty McGee

FOLKLORE may have lost in two of three meetings so far against Adieu, but no horse in this field, including Adieu, has run as fast as Folklore did when she romped in Belmont's Matron Stakes last month. Folklore could regress a bit off her Matron and still win, although in view of the extra time she has had to recover, and her sharp works since, a regression is not expected. ORIGINAL SPIN impressed when she won the Arlington-Washington Lassie going away, and the fact that she did so going a one-turn mile is especially encouraging. ADIEU turned back Folklore in the late stages both times she beat her. But, she has yet to take the kind of big step forward Beyer Speed Figure-wise her rival has. SENSATION likes the track and has competitive Beyers, but she is stepping up in both class and distance.

- Mike Watchmaker