10/27/2004 11:00PM

BC Juvenile Fillies Analysis


Improving longshot CULTURE CLASH is loaded to upset after an unlucky trip second time out. Fanned wide early, she steadied trying to rally inside on the far turn and ran fourth. She could have been second, in which case her lines would look better. That is okay, because now her morning line is 50-1. She has more speed than favorite SWEET CATOMINE, who looked super romping in the Oak Leaf and enters with crucial two-turn experience. But can she handle wet? - her dam was a turf filly. European MONA LISA finished fourth, but was second-best in a strong Group 1. The winner was taking her third straight; the runner-up won a Group 2 next out. Dirt is new, as it was for Mona Lisa's sire, Giant's Causeway, when he ran second in the 2000 Classic.


SWEET CATOMINE made a powerful move to assume command and drew off to win the Oak Leaf convincingly in her first route start. I expect another big step forward today. DANCE AWAY CAPOTE was stuck in a disadvantageous post, broke poorly, and rallied from 10 lengths off the pace vs. a speed bias at Keeneland to finish fourth, just three-quarters of a length behind RUNWAY MODEL in the Alcibiades. She is an attractive overlay in the exotics, and for a backup win bet. Runway Model rallied from eighth to win the Alcibiades and can contend at a square price. Sense of Style is better than her loss at Keeneland suggests, but will be an underlay as she tries to rebound. Sharp Lisa might get a part.


SWEET CATOMINE has the look of something special: Not too many young fillies are capable of winning a stakes in last-to-first style while still eligible for maiden ranks; Beyer from Oak Leaf is much better than it looks considering ground loss on both turns - something she may have to overcome once again. BALLETTO was shuffled back a bit around turn of the Matron but finished resolutely to get second, gaining valuable experience that came in handy for grinding Frizette score after laying close to a blistering pace; terrific post for initial two-turn race. SENSE OF STYLE lacked room in midstretch of Alcibiades, a race that may be suspect after four previously undistinguished fillies finished so close together.


SWEET CATOMINE was most impressive winning the Oak Leaf when stretched out to two turns, sustaining a wide run to score by a widening four lengths. She gives the impression that she hasn't even scratched the surface of her ability, and another big step forward Beyer Figure-wise is well within the realm of possibility. CULINARY's decisive victory in the Arlington-Washington Lassie got a big boost when the runner up, Runway Model, came back to win the Alcibiades. She is another with untapped potential, and she may be overlooked in the betting. SHARP LISA was beaten just a head in the Alcibiades despite having raced only once before, and that in a maiden dash at Calder. Like the top two, she could easily improve.