10/27/2004 11:00PM

BC Juvenile Analysis


Facing a bunch of fast colts that are possibly distance-challenged, rapidly improving CONSOLIDATOR is the likely winner. He looked sharp winning a two-turn Grade 1 at Keeneland, and can wear them down with his closing style. He will have to catch ROMAN RULER, who is the fastest in the field but coming off an unimpressive win in a two-turn stakes at Santa Anita. An unbalanced running style (slow early and fast late, or fast early and slow late) makes him vulnerable. European SCANDINAVIA is a Fusaichi Pegasus colt who is a half-brother to 2002 Juvenile Fillies runner-up Composure. The Group 2 runner-up is bred for dirt.


AFLEET ALEX rallied gamely and finished a half-length behind PROUD ACCOLADE in the Champagne. The spacing of his races suggests that he can improve enough to turn the tables on that rival at a reasonable price today. Proud Accolade improved significantly in the Champagne, and will be formidable if he can match or surpass that effort. SUN KING changed tactics when he pressed the pace and weakened late in the Champagne. If he is ridden more patiently, he is capable of upsetting this group. Roman Ruler pressed a quick early pace when he won the Norfolk. The concerns are his slow come-home time and his 85 Beyer from that race.


ROMAN RULER was an uncommonly fast juvenile sprinter at Del Mar, and may have been too pumped up for two-turn debut in the Norfolk just a few days after a fast workout; in experienced hands, seems likely to run back to his better figures. PROUD ACCOLADE, ultra-professional from Day 1, rated comfortably and kicked home strongly to outgame stakes-seasoned Afleet Alex in the Champagne. SUN KING was a fast-figure maiden winner from off the pace second out, then was probably thoroughly confused when sent up to battle head-and-head for the early lead in stakes debut - a fine effort, all things considered; tremendous upside potential.


SUN KING ran very well to be beaten less than two lengths in the Champagne, and may have done even better had he stuck with the off-the-pace style he employed in his impressive maiden victory two starts back instead of contesting the pace. He is going to rate this time, and is taken to post a mild upset. PROUD ACCOLADE and AFLEET ALEX were only a half-length apart when first and second in the Champagne. Proud Accolade wasn't wound completely tight for that one, and Afleet Alex had traffic trouble, so both could be tougher this time, although this will be the first start at two turns for both. Roman Ruler was rank and unfocused in his slowly run Norfolk.