10/27/2004 11:00PM

BC Distaff Analysis


Neither front-runner that has finished in front of TAMWEEL in a dirt race is entered, leaving her as the controlling speed. Second in her last two vs. Azeri and Adoration, Tamweel should race to the front. If left unchallenged, she's gone. Because who will pressure her? One-paced European NEBRASKA TORNADO figures to outrun her odds switching to dirt. This Distaff field is modest, and her trainer, Andre Fabre, engineered the biggest turf-to-dirt upset in BC history (133-1 Arcangues in 1993 Classic). ISLAND FASHION won her comeback in slow time, but can improve. She fits off her runner-up finish vs. colts in the Santa Anita Handicap, when 1 1/4 lengths behind Southern Image. What price would he be against these? The New York fillies take turns beating one another.


ISLAND FASHION won two Grade 1's at seven furlongs, then stretched out to 1 1/4 miles and finished second vs. males in the Santa Anita Handicap. She disappointed in the Apple Blossom and in Japan, but she won her comeback at Santa Anita and has trained well since. A return to form wins this at a reasonable price. ASHADO rates a narrow edge based on her recent form, but her odds will be too low to make her a good win bet in this contentious field. TAMWEEL was second to Azeri on a day when Keeneland played fair. Double-digit odds are worth taking for at least a saver bet to win and in the exotics. Stellar Jayne earned contending Beyers in her recent races and must be considered.


ASHADO drew beautifully for a ground-saving trip just behind the leaders, on the heels of a nice prep victory giving weight in the Cotillion and recording the best fast-track Beyer of her career; Alabama effort was much better than given credit for in view of prolonged battle through enervating pace. SOCIETY SELECTION was the beneficiary in Alabama, but had difficult set-up chasing Sightseek's cakewalk splits in Beldame; capable, but has thrown in dull efforts in big spots. NEBRASKA TORNADO's comment lines suggest the presser may adapt well to dirt; raced exclusively in Group 1 races since winning her first two starts. Her trainer sent out turf-to-dirt bomber Arcangues, and on Saturday reaches out for top big-money rider. Storm Flag Flying is 3 for 4 around two turns; wrong set-up in Beldame.


SOCIETY SELECTION has been much more effective since going on Lasix, romping in the Test and Alabama and finishing a game second to Sightseek last time out in the Beldame while being severely compromised by a slow pace. She should get more favorable fractions to rally into here, and the return to two turns will only help. STORM FLAG FLYING faced the same obstacles Society Selection did in the Beldame, and was only a little more than a length behind her in third. She will also appreciate what figures to be a more honest pace, and will be more comfortable with the added turn. TAMWEEL hasn't been worse than second since switching to dirt, including a game second to Azeri in the Spinster, and is a quality pace factor.