09/28/2001 11:00PM

Bay Meadows analysis for 9/30

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Best Bet: FLO THE BLO (8th race)

First Race

1. SCEPTER'D ISLE 2. MY CUZ AL 3. DONOVAN SCORES

If SCEPTER'D ISLE has anything left to offer, he should be able to run by this gang as he takes the drop that refreshes.That was an awfully quick race he exits, so wouldn't be too tough on him for the drubbing. MY CUZ AL isn't going to find a softer spot this side of Fresno, and along with what figures to be a favorable pace scenario may be able to take this suspect group coast-to-coast with Mr. Alvarado. DONOVAN SCORES closed out his Emerald campaign with a couple of solid tries and should be a nice fit here. The Washington interlopers have certainly been winning their share.

Second Race

1. MISTY RICHES 2. NEVER READY 3. REDLY

MISTY RICHES had his hands full chasing 50K foes going a mile on the turf at Del Mar, but ships up to find a much more realistic spot while returning to the short game and the main track. Look for Sumja's interloper to do the best work at crunch time. NEVER READY got back on the beam with a good win over a softer field and has run smartly in both teamings with Fresh Frank. Versatility helps the cause. REDLY had nothing left when they hit the drive in that grass miler last month and had too much to do in the Del Mar try, but in this league he might prove to be an elusive target with Gonzo sending from the get-go.

Third Race

1. PADIRAC 2. GALLATIN GATEWAY 3. OTTER BE A SYN

PADIRAC got back to the preferred footing two weeks ago, sat patiently to the top of the stretch and then attacked the leaders to win going away. Those were only conditioned sellers, but he was looking for bigger game at the line and gets the nod in a very contentious once-around tour. GALLATIN GATEWAY carved out all the fractions on the lawn against a bit better group and while unable to hold off the winner, did well to continue on for the place. There is other speed to deal with today from the inside two spots, but he did show in his maiden breaker that he can get it done from off the pace if so asked. OTTER BE A SYN makes the third start of the current form cycle and has attracted Baze, while MAYNEUNDERFIRE has been getting better with each start and just toyed with field last time for Adalberto.

Fourth Race

1. THE DR. IS A LADY 2. POTRA SKATER 3. SPRING VACATION

THE DR. IS A LADY returns to the Bay Area and should take this first-level event with a repeat of either of her Del Mar starts. She absolutely crushed a Cal-bred field back in late July at this trip, and then ran into a top prospect in Tamara Princess in her most recent outing, and that one was set to be the favorite in Saturday's Lady's Secret at Santa Anita. POTRA SKATER failed to raise a gallop in her U.S. debut, but Spawr brings her up for a much softer spot and we'll find out more about this Argentina filly now. SPRING VACATION had little trouble handling a starter crew after getting a clear lead at the half and seems to be right at home over this track, while LADY CARA gets away from those stakes types and returns to the main track which was the sight of her most recent decision.

Fifth Race

1. WESTERN SUN 2. GENUINE RULER 3. IRISH ISLAND

No mistakes this time for WESTERN SUN, who dueled in the middle of a three-horse spread and then couldn't quite find enough to the dismay of the chalkplayers. That was his first try in over two months, so he should be tighter now, but unfortunately the price won't be much better. GENUINE RULER has flashed good speed in both the tries since being claimed from his bow and has to be given a shot to steal this thing. The top one should be close enough to keep him honest, though. IRISH LEGEND has been showing a bit more life since escaping So Cal and will be tracking from the outside for Mr. Alvarado.

Sixth Race

1. DEPTH CHARGE 2. CAT FLIGHT 3. SAINT JULIEN

As you might guess from a Manila offspring, DEPTH CHARGE stepped up his game when he got a chance to test the lawn earlier this month and looks set for a photo session with a repeat of that effort. He gets a better draw for this outing and can overpower them from close range. CAT FLIGHT has turned in solid tries in both attempts on the green, including that last one when he kept fighting the length of the drive after being engaged by the top choice at the furlong pole. Gets first jump again and looms large. SAINT JULIEN brings some ugly lines up from Del Mar, but the longer assignment on the new surface could help turn things around at a big price for the Sherman protege.

Seventh Race

1. CARA'S NATIVE 2. VICTORIAN PARK 3. GO NINER

CARA'S NATIVE has the kind of moves you like to see coming into a debut, with a strong 6 furlongs last week followed by a nice three-eighths blowout Wednesday. The Lage-Carr production looks like a very live commodity at first asking. VICTORIAN PARK has done her work with straight maidens thus far and should appreciate the class relief. Hopefully, Gilchrist's miss will have a bit more early inspiration at this level. GO NINER hasn't exactly been burning up the track in the a.m., but you have to give the utmost respect to the Morey and Baze combination and the daughter of Dare and Go likely has more to offer than the slowish drills would indicate.

Eighth Race

1. FLO THE BLO 2. STORM SIGNAL 3. THE CANDI KID

FLO THE BLO used up all his energy fighting for the lead in that last marathoner at Del Mar and the tank was on "E" by the time the real racing began. New conditioner DeSeroux vans up to find a much more enticing spot and Carr should be able to drop into a great spot behind the speed this time and class will tell in the final furlong. STORM SIGNAL shocked 'em at 30-1 at Hollypark this summer with a big stretch move, then found that field a bit too tough after making a nice bid into the lane at the Seaside. Even though ths Wygod homebred blew three times at the first allowance level over this course last meet, he did have a troubled trip in the last of those tries and seems to be much improved since last seen up here. THE CANDI KID is going in razor-sharp form for the Dynamic Duo and makes his own good luck with the speed to get position and a surge through the stretch. This is his toughest task to date, but he just might be up to it.

Ninth Race

1. PRIZED MATCH 2. RAPID ACCESS 3. REX ROYAL While it's a bit worrysome that PRIZED MATCH has sat out some time and drops a notch off the Santa Rosa score, he figures to get a gorgeous tracking trip here and don't think R Muscle would be riding if this guy was too far gone. The good work across town indicates he has at least one more left in him. RAPID ACCESS was simply toying with that bottom-level group the other day and now begins a slow move back up the ladder. If the top choice has his problems, he would be no surprise right back with Warren. REX ROYAL has one way to go, and he would have been posing after that last one if he hadn't gone sideways in the lane.