09/18/2001 11:00PM

Bay Meadows analysis for 9/21

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BEST BET: CONTEMPORARY (8TH)

FIRST RACE

1. FLOM'S FLYER 2. DANCE WITH KELLY 3. O'CATIONALLY WINDY

FLOM'S FLYER was a low-odds flop here earlier this month, but goes from the rail to a cozy outside draw in this compact line-up and can apologize with Alvarado. He figures to be prompting a moderate pace tonight and can do the best work when it counts. DANCE WITH KELLY rolled by the top choice in the stretch last time and obviously fits well at this level, but at 1-for-21 and counting it's hard to get too carried away with his chances for scoring. O'CATIONALLY WINDY has also missed his share of shots with this kind, but can finish into a decent share.

SECOND RACE

1. IN COUNTRY 2. FITTINGLY VALID 3. TWICE CHILLED

IN COUNTRY must have her problems, as she's only started six times in her career, but she's managed to get her picture taken after three of those and could be in line for another theft in this paceless field. FITTINGLY VALID was in too steep in that grass affair after returning from Idaho, but got back to the proper league for the last and turned in a solid try behind Winning Genes. Needs somebody to push the top pick and help set the table for her finish. TWICE CHILLED is far and away the leader with her 13 lifetime scores and hinted that No. 14 may not be far way in that Sacramento miler.

THIRD RACE

1. FLOATIN ON XTACY 2. CLEVER TOSS 3. BREANNA

After turning in a pair of creditable efforts at Del Mar, FLOATIN ON XTACY returns to friendlier confines and lands a very nice spot. With plenty of speed drawn to her outside, Lage's miss should be able to drop into a nice tracking position, then ignites when push comes to shove for an overdue decision. CLEVER TOSS got a good confidence builder when she flexed her muscles and crushed that weaker field three weeks ago. She may click right back, but these aren't exactly the creampuffs she met in her last and the filly to her outside figures to be breathing down her neck from the get-go. That would be BREANNA, who only has one way to go and more often than not seems to get in a fight up there. She'll be tighter for this one and helps make it difficult.

FOURTH RACE

1. DOLLY DAGGER 2. VIDEO GIRL 3. I'M ROYALTY

DOLLY DAGGER was well beaten in the two Del Mar comeback tries, but takes a pretty drastic drop for her return to the Bay Area and should be able to revive her career with these. If she has anything left in the tank, this will be the place to show it. VIDEO GIRL hasn't faced the starter in a long, long time, but hails from a crafty barn and may fire fresh. I'M ROYALTY got up in time despite fanned taken to the parking lot turning for home and would be no surprise right back.

FIFTH RACE

1. STERIOPTICON 2. MORTAL COIL 3. POWER FAILURE

STERIOPTICON looks like a live commodity at first asking off some solid works at San Luis Rey for DeSeroux. Debuts at what appears a realistic level and giving this one the slight nod. MORTAL COIL debuted with straight maidens down at Del Mar last month and got his head handed to him after flashing speed, but that zip he put on display down there could take him a long way in this affair, and there's Fresh Frank and some good moves across town to add to the optimism. POWER FAILURE has done the best work of those seen locally and adds to the early mix. A little concerned about the way he was getting out in that last one.

SIXTH RACE

1. KIJARA 2. FASTCASH 3. PARANOIDE N PINK

There was a time when KIJARA was well-regarded, and while we're apparently looking at a shell of that miss, Lonnie A's returnee figures to have enough to handle this caliber with Baze doing the honors. FASTCASH has been winless since taking the bow 14 months ago at Hollypark, but has been knocking heads with tougher types in the interim and has to be respected. PARANOIDE N PINK is likewise being lowered in class could pose a very elusive target down in these ranks. She's rarely outrun to the early poles and may keep the momentum going all the way to the wire this time.

SEVENTH RACE

1. ROARING RED 2. YOU AND YOU ALONE 3. RIOTOUS RICHIE

There are only five in this feature, but it doesn't mean it's easy. It's been quite some time since ROARING RED suited up for something other than a stakes event and he gets the top billing on past class. Baze should be able to keep Morey's runner in close enough contact to the stretch, and he's shown he really knows how to turn it on from that point. YOU AND YOU ALONE doesn't have Lexicon and Swept Overboard to worry about today and should be right there with his main man Carr. The lightly-raced gelding may actually find himself on the lead in this spot and would be no surprise to take them all the way. RIOTOUS RICHIE did a crash and burn in the BC, but he was being thrown to the lions that afternoon in his first try since Feb. and this spot suits him much better. HYDER comes off a hard-earned score during the fair, while RADAR CONTACT is back sprinting and rounds out a very interesting cast.

EIGHTH RACE

1. CONTEMPORARY 2. ACTIVE RADIUM 3. CLASSIC ONYX

CONTEMPORARY is winless after 11 attempts, but a repeat of that near miss a couple of weeks ago would be good enough to get him over the hump tonight. From a stalking position with R Muscle back at the controls. ACTIVE RADIUM figures to have pace-setting duties and has been inching closer to a victory in those last couple of attempts. CLASSIC ONYX brings some ugly lines up from Del Mar, but we've seen much bigger turnarounds than this when they catch that van north.