08/19/2013 3:52PM

Balmoral: Wednesday 8/21 Analysis

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Race 7 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (46 - 88 / $162.20): PERFECT PROFIT (8th)

Spot Play: IMDEW SEWZ G ZEUS (7th)

 

Race 1

(4) JUSTICE AND FIFTH is a tricky call because of the breaking issues, but speed and talent is there to handle a soft field should he mind his manners; command a price.  (1a) MARY'S LAW doesn't look that good on paper but finds a very weak and inconsistent field.  (1) SUNBONNET SUE well bred filly broke last out, but does get a great post to save some ground.

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Race 2

(5) WALKNINTHEMOONLITE is reunited with the top pilot who has done well with the mare.  The 7-year-old will be firing early and could be in business should nobody challenge.  (7) LOVERS HOLIDAY mare could be the sharpest horse in the field and would be a huge threat with any kind of early battle up front.  (1) JUSTINE'S PRIDE keep an eye on this one, the mare is making her first start off a long layoff but turned in a huge qualifier to a sharp winner who just won off a layoff.

Race 3

(7) MY MARISA CLAIR is a 3-year-old facing younger and hasn't seen this weak of a field since May; big chance.  (4) LIZZABELLE is another 3-year-old filly who has been getting better with each start despite being 0 for her career she's been knocking on the door.  (8) ROCK GROUPIE is a well bred 2-year-old facing older but does own the most talent.  However the filly's last effort was very disappointing being outkicked by an average opponent; use caution.

Race 4

(8) BOILER HEIDI HO looks to be unchallenged early which could spell disaster for the rest of the field, which is actually softer than her last race.  (9) SEEKIN FOR GLAMOUR gets sent out by red hot connections but will be far back early.  If someone should really push the top choice, which is unlikely here is your threat late.  (3) PROSPER mare has really had some tough racing luck after finally showing some consistency; use underneath.

Race 5

(3) BC'S CHIEF gelding makes his first start for new connections who have done well in that scenario.  The 4-year-old should offer a big price and finds a manageable field.  (1) BUGGER MAX three-year-old was parked for most of the mile in his first start at the track.  The gelding draws the rail and looks to be tough with a smooth trip.  (4) JONATHONISOOT just doesn't win very often even though the 4-year-old stallion has just missed getting his picture taken in his last four; command a price.

Race 6

In a tough race to handicap (9) NONVERBAL HANOVER gets sent out by a hot trainer and the trotter has been facing some tough customers; fires early.  (10) CELEBRITY HERCULES has been on a roll for months winning 12 out of 19 starts, but is saddled with a bad post and will have to float for position in order to sweep past late.  (2) EVIL URGES well bred gelding has a ton of back class but has had a very average year; use underneath.

Race 7

(3) IMDEW SEWZ G ZEUS looks really bad on paper but if you saw his last race live you know how good he was.  The 3-year-old gets a big morning line and looks to be a live longshot in a bad field.  (5) DAVE'S GOLD made up some late ground on a nice winner a few weeks back, and could show some improvement.  (1) DAVE'S ART looked to have some pace off a ground saving trip but made a miscue.  If the colt minds his manners he's got a big shot.

Race 8

(3) PERFECT PROFIT lightly raced trotter sticks out like a sore thumb on paper.  The mare lagged the gate last out, came first up, and held gamely.  On top of all that he gets a huge driver change.   (4) J M SHOWCAT appears to be the main danger to the top choice and will probably have a ton of trot late; threat.  (2) SPEEDY ALBER four-year-old gave a game effort from a tough post and could do some damage by shaking loose late.

Race 9

(1) JIMENYS STAR is only 1 for 18 on the year but does draw the rail for a hot trainer.  (5) BESTNOTGETINMYWAY looks to be the obvious choice as the 9-year-old has raced huge first over in his last two efforts; threat.  (7) RIO'S Z TAM gelding came up empty after being sharp which appears to fit with how the barn races.  A repeat of the prior effort makes him dangerous.

Race 10

In a race that is wide open despite how it looks on paper (3) RECKONING DAY was loaded with pace from a tough spot last out and will offer a nice price.  (5) BRIEF'S BOY gelding raced gamely last out but did get very slow fractions up front; vulnerable late.  (1) SHIPPS CON eight-year-old put in a sneaky good effort last out and looks to save some ground from the rail.

 

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