09/21/2012 2:43PM

Balmoral: Sunday 9/23 Analysis

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Best Bet: OLD AUNT GEORGE (4th)     Spot Play: FOX VALLEY PRALINE (7th)

Race 1

(1) THE SUPERVISOR comes off a couple improved efforts and finds a soft spot.  Gelding just needs to have his nose on the gate to get his first win on the big track; short price.  (6) DESERT COWBOY put in a good bid last out before tiring in the stretch.  4yr old could be the only threat in the race to the favorite.  (10) FOX VALLEY RAINIER was used very hard last out.  Look for this one to try and float off the gate and pick up some cover.

Race 2

(5) POWERFUL STAR broke in the final before rushing back into contention.  3yr old filly has an excellent post to go along with her tactical gate speed.  (6) FOX VALLEY HELEN never got into the mile last out.  Filly is one of few in the race who doesn't show a miscue.  She also owns gate speed and should be forwardly placed.  (4) DIVAS PHOTO is very fast when she decides to trot.  Filly shows two miscues out of three races, but does have the talent to win.

Race 3

(5) NIGHT BOLTER has won two races in a row, and looked great doing it.  Gelding gets a much better post to start from and is very versatile; short price.  (1) MR HANS had a very nice try last out before tiring badly in the stretch.  Look for this one to try and get a cover trip, and shake loose late.  (7) FOX VALLEY IVAN 2yr old gelding has a lot of talent, and room for improvement.

Race 4

(6) OLD AUNT GEORGE  has had the stretch lead in her last two starts.  3yr old owns one big move, and is best racing off a helmet.  (2) CLASSICAL IMPACT 2yr old is facing older, which is a draw back.  Gelding has some talent and should be forwardly placed.  (5) SEPTEMBER HALL is a very well bred 3yr old colt who needed his last start.  He finished up his mile full of trot and should improve.

Race 5

(1) DALLAS JONES  takes a significant drop in class, and is pacing faster than her rivals.  She gets the best post and looks to be in line for a great trip.  (8) ODDS ON CYGNUS makes her first start on the big track.  2yr old filly looks to be improving and has the talent.  (2) BUBBALA is making his debut, and comes off a winning qualifier.  He's bred to go really fast and could be ready.  Pay close attention to the tote board early as he might be sitting on a big mile.

Race 6

(1) KITTY O'BRIEN  showed good late kick last out coming off a scratch.  Mare gets the best post to work with and will be firing late.  (3) BOILER HEIDI HO is very consistent, and gives a good effort every start.  9yr old mare should be forwardly placed off the gate, and races better with a cover trip.  (2) MONEY RUNNER was a game winner last time out for her first victory of the year.  Should get a boost of confidence from that last performance, and a repeat of that effort puts her in the money.

Race 7

(9) FOX VALLEY PRALINE made a miscue last start, but has been racing really well.  Mare should be forwardly placed off the gate; big chance.  (6) PRETTY PLACE was overmatched in her last, but finds a spot where she can win.  Some chaos and a fast pace upfront would greatly improve her chances.  (2) I KILL TIME got a win off a perfect trip last out and was just ok.  She is stepping up in class and will probably take some heavy action; command a price.

Race 8

(5) FRAHER HILL VICTOR was parked the mile last out before making up some ground late.  Gelding is due for a big effort and has options from hispost.  (4) CREDITCARD EXPRESS seems to be headed in the right direction and on the improve.  He finds a much softer field and just needs to mind his manners.  (9) AMEN AMEN 3yr old is coming out of some better races than the rest.  He's posted outside and needs to float for position for best chance.

Race 9

(9) TWENTY-ONE BELOW comes out of a race where she sizzled the pace before stopping late.  This race is wide open and was the toughest race to handicap.  Filly needs to ration out her speed and could be a threat.  (4) INCREDIBLE FILLY is a 2yr old facing older.  She has been improving with each start and this should be no different.  (3) A NITE TO REMEMBER was shuffled back in her last start, but has been racing ok.  She hasn't seen the winners circle this year but could pick up the pieces late.

Race 10

(8) MAJESTIC ROYALE has been putting in some good efforts and is actually in an easier field than last out. He likes to race upfront and could outlast his rivals with the right trip. (7) BLUERIDGEVALENTINO  takes a big drop in class, but has had some time off; might need a start.  (9) INFLATION HANOVER will most likely be far back early, and needs a fast pace to chase.

Race 11

(7) SERGEANT STRYKER has been used very hard in last two starts.  Gelding has good gate speed but needs a trip for best chance.  (2) LIGHT IN THE ROOM is the fastest horse in the race but keeps making breaks.  If he minds his manners he would win with any kind of trip.  (5) FOX VALLEY CADBURY excellent effort last start, where gelding drew off.  He takes a slight bump in class but should have gained some confidence.

 

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