09/14/2012 7:56PM

Balmoral: Sunday 9/16 Analysis


Best Bet:  LIGHT IN THE ROOM (11th)   Spot Play:  CAMARROW (5th)

Race 1

(6) MAKIN’ A STATEMENT is taking a drop in class and looks to be a short price. She has early speed and will most likely be on the front; could be vulnerable late. (2) SOARING HONEY is facing older but has the talent to win. She is also dropping from a very tough sire stakes class. Filly does her best when kept on a helmet and owns one big move. (8) SAND STARLA has had a very disappointing year but sports a couple of good efforts in her last two; only other threat to the top two.

Race 2

(1) I KILL TIME looks to be the one to beat. She’s coming off a good second place finish and is actually in easier. Western Ideal mare has a good post and should be up front near the pace. The connections of this one hit at a big clip as well. (3) BP GIANT FOOL has an excellent post and could be in line for a good stalking trip; needs a hot pace for best chance. (1A) ODDS ON JAN was used early last out, but held on well. Sophomore took some time off and might have needed her last two starts. 

Race 3

(8) SOUTHWIND KEAN benefits from a good driver change and shows three solid efforts in a row. He could probably beat this field with any kind of a smooth trip; finds a soft spot. (1) THE SPEED OF WHITE is facing younger inexperienced rivals. He is in a good spot with only a few potential contenders. Look for Finn to get a good stalking trip and shake loose late. (2) CRYPTIC GOLD has one thing that no other horse in the field has, which is a win. Filly has good speed early, but has trouble finishing her miles; wouldn’t recommend taking a short price. 

Race 4

(1) IF I DIDNT CARE is taking a big drop in class and pacing a little faster than the rest. She comes off a three week layoff, but don’t let that bother you as she should be fresh; easy winner last time in this class. (2) WEEKEND UPDATE is a well-bred mare that always flashes early speed. She is a recent winner and might have gained some confidence. (6) IDEAL NECTARINE has a pattern off racing well one week and then flat the next. Mare raced super last out and can hit the board with a repeat effort.

Race 5 

(8) CAMARROW is a live longshot who was blocked in and loaded with pace last week. His line on paper doesn’t show that. A smoother trip could lead to an upset. (2) BROOKLYN’S DESIRE posted a good effort last out and has 14 wins on the year. He owns one big move and if timed right has a good chance.  (5) LITTLE MORE RAM could be a bit overbet off the last race. It was a very nice effort where he made three moves. 

Race 6 

(2) POWER OF TARA N was never seriously threatened last week. He’s back in the same condition and looks to be another short price; should dominate.  (3) WAHINE is facing older, but is loaded with talent. He has yet to put it all together, but does show excellent closing ability. (5) OLD MAN RIVER is racing really well right now, but he will have a tough time beating the top choice; should be used underneath.

Race 7 

(6) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS has been on a recent tear. Gelding is facing older but has been razor sharp. He can absolutely fly home and has a better post than his recent starts. (1) SHISWELL’S DELIGHT gets a touch of class relief after chasing a very game winner last out. A perfect post for his closing style should provide options. He could be the only other threat to the top choice. (3) JACKSON BERLOW flew home in his last start; closed in :27 flat and was boxed in last until the top of the stretch. He gets a better post to start with, but would need even more to get past the other two.

Race 8 

(5) YERMANOS is making his second start for the new connections and deserves another chance. He has yet to win on the year but put in a good effort last start; cover trip would help. (9) SHAX was a game winner last out, firing to the top and working out a perfect trip. He is posted inside the favorite and will be looking for a similar trip. (7) IDEAL JOE just missed in his last start.  He’s only 1 for 29 on the year but has shown some signs of life in his last two.  (1) ZAMBRANO takes a step up in class and could end up being overbet as part of an entry. Although he has reeled off four consecutive victories, tonight’s task is tougher and the bad post and inside speed will hurt his chances; likely huge underlay; use caution.

Race 9

(9)  OOGA BOOGA is 0 for 13 on the year, but has been trotting up a storm recently. Shows good tactical gate speed and a repeat effort from last out would put him right on the money. (8) GJ PHOTO VICTORY looks to get back on track and takes a key drop in class. He shows a couple of lack luster efforts, but note he was racing in Opens and has a previous win at this level. Let’s hope he leaves for position. (4)  LOOKIN’ AHEAD made a miscue last out, which should improve the price this week. He does have some back class as well. (2) MRS D has the ultimate pedigree, being a half-sister to multiple world champions. Filly has the talent and just needs a good trip to get a piece.

Race 10 

(5) MR ROCKFORD raced gamely in the slop last out. He should be forwardly placed and has an excellent chance to get his third victory of the year. (3) MAJOR MALE never really got into the mile last week. He was a bit steppy on the bad track and followed dull cover before tucking back to the inside. Art Major 4-year-old should be in a much better spot this time around and look for him to try and shake loose late; may offer a price, too. (1) REAL HERO was just okay in his last start and actually squandered a pretty good trip. He could improve some on a fast track. 

Race 11 

(4) LIGHT IN THE ROOM was used multiple times into a very fast half and did well to hold on for second. It looks like he should be in line for a much easier mile. (7) DRINKABILITY was also used multiple times last out before fading late. He has good tactical gate speed and with a trip, he could upset at a big price. (3) SCHERZO paced a game mile last out. In a race that is wide open, he is a contender. (6) SELL THE DREAM has the most potential of any horse in the race. He gapped the gate last time and was urged throughout.  However, he was making up good ground late. If he has his nose on the gate and doesn’t have to be chased early he could pace past the field.


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