08/16/2013 1:49PM

Balmoral: Sunday 8/18 Analysis

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Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (44 - 86 / $155.20): FOX VALLEY ARROW (8th)

Spot Play: FINANCIAL EFFORT (5th)

 

Race 1

(2) PARTY HANGOVER TWO filly went a big effort first up last out and appears to be getting better.  (5) CUZIMALEGEND two-year-old was overmatched in the Hanover Stakes but has flashed some ability.  (6) ANYTHING I WANT filly benefited from a very slow pace but could have more to offer.

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Race 2

(7) BOXED CHOCOLATES was used very aggressively last out before tiring in the stretch.  Well bred 2-year-old has a ton of upside in a week field.  (5) SIMPLYIRRESISTIBLE another well bred filly that had pace last time but just raced greenly.  (10) GET YOUR SHINE ON filly dominated in her first start and goes for a barn doing very well with freshman pacers.

Race 3

(3) FOX VALLEY ISABELA the drover chose to sit in and that cost him the victory.  The filly is starting to turn a corner and will be tough to beat.   (8) C J'S TERROR is always a tough play because of breaking issues but in the soft field could hit the board at a price.  (6) BEST CARD mare put in a good acclimating mile last out and could improve.

Race 4

(6) PREEMPTIVE BID has been lights out this year and has yet to put in a disappointing effort.  (5) MORTAL COMBAT he made up a ton of ground late to just miss and should be closer turning for home.  (7) BOSSA NOVA BABY look for a drivers change to feel confident but the gelding is very talented.

Race 5

In a tough race to handicap (1) FINANCIAL EFFORT draws the rail and could be sitting an improved effort.  (2) WINSPIRATIONAL mare stepped up with a much better effort last out and faces a similar field.  (5) SMASHY CERISE mare drops in class, makes her second start off a layoff and should improve.

Race 6

(4) FANCY LABEL mare has been racing gamely just yet to benefit from racing luck.  The 4-year-old is one of the more consistent trotters in the field.  (9) ROSE'S CYCLONE three-year-old has been progressing nicely all year but is saddled with a tough post.  (2) TAXMAN gelding is a tough horse to gauge because he will either win for fun or come up empty.

Race 7

In a race with few contenders (3) CHINA GAL takes a huge drop in class and should offer a fair price.  (7) KATE THE GREAT mare has only one win on the year but does have a good late kick.  (9) OUR MISS LILY filly has been impressive in two straight but faces a much tougher bunch and will need more.

Race 8

(7) FOX VALLEY ARROW takes a big jump down the class ladder, faces much easier, and is trotting a lot faster; short price.  (6) SOUTHWIND KEAN could be a live long shot to hit the exacta especially if he minds his manners and decides to stay trotting.  (3) MY FUNKY FARKLE mare has yet to win on the year but does have some ability; use underneath.

Race 9

(7) WOLFIES SPORTSER gelding is inconsistent but has been dominating this class.  (1) BLUERIDGEVALENTINO has a bunch of positives going for him including drawing the rail, dropping, and looks to be in line for a ground saving trip.  (3) INFLATION HANOVER gelding has been racing gamely and could just use a smooth trip.

Race 10

(5) SCHMATIE has been ultra impressive for red hot connections and is tough to leave off the top spot.  (9) T E'S ZENYATTA mare came up empty last out after being sharp prior.  (1) WELCOME TO WALMAC was ready for a big effort last time before making a miscue; threat.

 

 

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