12/07/2012 2:53PM

Balmoral: Sunday 12/9 Analysis

There is a $100k guaranteed pick five starting in race 2 with a $30,522 carryover on Sunday.

Race 2 - $100,000 GUARANTEED PICK-5 POOL ($30,522 c/o)

Race 7 - $30,000 GUARANTEED PICK-4 POOL

Best Bet: GT MISS ROYAL (8th)   
Spot Play: KATE THE GREAT (6th)

Race 1

(6) MARY RITA HANOVER has burned cash as the favorite three straight times out.  Three-year-old old filly has had some excuses and could use a good trip; keeps top driver.  (4) GIMMEAZZZMOOCH Two-year-old filly is facing older but looks to have the talent to step up in a very weak field.  (1) BUST MY CHOPS filly got a perfect trip last time and couldn't go by; command a price.

Race 2

(7) ER STARLA filly comes off an excellent qualifier and looks to be in a soft field.  (1) MELT IN YOUR MOUTH Three-year-old gelding has been brought along slowly but is immensely talented. (8) KK'S BANDIT filly consistently hits the board and is coming off a victory.  Three-year-old does however take a big step up in class.

Race 3

(1) LUCKY NZ has been outstanding his last three starts and now gets the best post.  (6) GENCOR'S ZTAM has also raced gamely his last two starts but would need to go even faster.  (8) GAME BELIEF closed nicely last out to get the victory.  Gelding needs a fast pace up front to close into.

Race 4

(9) STICKS filly is lightning fast and will be coming from far back.  Three-year-old has breaking issues and should offer a big price.  (6) SAND TARYN was taken out of the race last time by a breaker.  Filly had been racing gamely prior.  (1) ALLURING SHARK showed good late kick a couple back but did make a break last start.

Race 5

(8) BELL VALLEY ZEKE gelding is making his second start in the bottom class and should be better if he rations out his speed.  (7) OUT OF MY HANDS gelding put in a game effort last out and is versatile.  (2) MIKE LANIGAN has been racing consistently as of late, has gate speed, and a great post.

Race 6

(8) KATE THE GREAT showed a new dimension last out repelling all challengers.  Mare loves to run down a target as well, and should offer a decent price.  (6) NINA COLEADA takes a big step down in class and has made the most money on the year.  (4) WILLOW GRAM filly has shown good late kick in almost every start but is facing tougher.

Race 7

(1) FOX VALLEY ISABELA filly got a decent trip last out just didn't fire off cover like she had the week before.  Two-year-old gets the best post and has been on the improve.  (3) BUBBLER mare has the speed to win but note the 5 year-old doesn't have the smoothest gait; needs a trip.  (7) FOX VALLEY SWIFT went wire to wire last out in the fog and could have gained some confidence; short price.

Race 8

(4) GT MISS ROYAL was an impressive winner in this class last out and will probably be a short price.  (7) ANIGHTWITHWILMA mare likes to come from off the pace and will need some honest fractions up front for her best chance.  (10) KITTY O'BRIEN mare is saddled with the worst post and needs to float for position to be a little closer turning for home.

Race 9

(7) BIG COOKIE gets second-time lasix and should offer better value.  Well bred 4-year-old could be sitting on a big effort after being a touch flat in his first two starts at Balmoral.  (3) FOUR STARZ KID gelding has a big class edge on the field if he can stay flat.  (2) MYSTERY XPOSED broke last time out but does have a good post and tactical gate speed.

Race 10

(10) SERGEANT STRYKER appeared to be a winner last out before tiring late.  Gelding has stepped his game up recently and just needs to time his move right.  (1) MECHANICAL ART gelding was a game winner last out but now steps up in class and will need to pace faster. (2) GET A LITTLE CRAZY tired badly last out but had been racing gamely prior.

Race 11

(5) TUFF LONGPORT five-year-old was roughed up last out but now gets a good post and looks to be improving.  (1) CAGE FIGHTER just raced evenly last out but draws the rail and should be in line for a ground saving trip.  (4) SPORTSCAR GEORGE gelding could have needed his last start and finds a very suspect field.


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