10/06/2012 4:23PM

Balmoral: Sunday 10/7 Analysis


Best Bet: CONKERS CONQUEST (4th)   Spot Play: CAGE FIGHTER (9th)

Race 1

(8) BELLALICIOUS is a lightly raced 3yr old that showed dramatic improvement last start drawing off.  Filly has tactical gate speed and room for improvement.  (7) MISS BELLA snapped her 0 for 15 streak last out and probably gained some confidence.  (3) HOLDIE L put in an excellent mile last out and was just a little short.

Race 2

(6) TIMEPIECE HERO looks to be racing faster than the rest and should be forwardly placed off the gate.  3yr old gelding has just been racing evenly and will probably be a very short price; use caution.  (2) ROLLING ROCKER was flying out of the gate last start before making a break.  Look for the 3yr old gelding to try the same tactic but a little more under control.  (3) SHARKY DEE also made a miscue last out, but does look to have some talent if he can mind his manners.

Race 3

(3) MAEVEY GRAVY has put together a great season and looks to be freshened up.  (2) POWERFUL STAR just missed by a neck, even after making a break last start.  Filly just needs to mind her manners for a piece.  (6) B FLY MCQUEEN looks for two straight after her big win on super night.

Race 4

(8) CONKERS CONQUEST was super last out just missing after closing hard from an impossible spot.  Any kind of repeat effort puts him in the winner’s circle.  (10) AGOOD TIME TO ROCK is a 2yr old facing older who had a very rough trip last out.  Gelding has impeccable breeding and is loaded with talent.  (4) READY looks to be improving and you can put a line thru his last start.

Race 5

(2) ZAMBRANO is on a roll, takes a slight bump up in class, and will be a very short price; tough to go against.  (3) IDEAL JOE despite having only one victory on the year is racing really good right now.  He gets an excellent post and could be in line for a good stalking trip.  (1) UNITY ROAD was used hard last mile.  Gelding is saddled with a bad post but shows good late kick.

Race 6

(3) SEMPER FIT has really come into his own recently and dominated last race.  2yr old colt looks to be a very short price.  (1) POWERFUL POE put in an excellent mile last out but would need a lot more to get by the top choice.  (7) POWERFUL YIELD has less experience than most but has the talent to make up for it; use underneath.

Race 7

(7) JACKSON BERLOW finds a soft spot in a short field.  This race could very well be perfect for his style.  He can smoke home and could use a fast pace to chase; live long shot.  (3) JO JO SPUR is the most consistent out of the bunch.  Gelding gets a good post to work with and should be firing late.  (2) BRING THE RAIN is 0 for 29 on the year, so I can’t endorse on the top spot.  Gelding has been racing better as of late; use underneath.

Race 8

(2) BLOWN AWAY is 0 for 18 on the year but has been facing much better.  He has by far the most earnings in the field and could be in line for a ground saving trip.  (1) FRAHER HILL VICTOR could win the race easily if he minds his manners.  (8) MYSTERY XPOSED has tactical gate speed and is very consistent.

Race 9

(3) CAGE FIGHTER is taking a huge drop in class.  Gelding finds a suspect field and has made the most money on the year.  (6) BUFFALO JOE is very inconsistent but does have some talent.  Gelding finds his softest field to date and has the fastest mark of the group.  (5) DRINKABILITY is a lot better than some of his lines show and needs a smooth trip for his best chance.

Race 10

In a race that I considered to be the toughest on the card to handicap (1) BASHFUL INTERLUDE has the best post and shows some good efforts racing against better.  (2) HAZEL MAY has good gate speed and will be forwardly placed.  (5) POWER AND PURPOSE comes in from Ohio for a hot barn and is very versatile.

Race 11

(4) THE SUPERVISOR is a tough play because he will either win going away or break; your call.  (6) DESERT COWBOY almost circled the field last start closing from way back.  (1) W WHITE COMET needed his last start and should improve some.  Should the favorite break he has a big chance to get his picture taken.


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