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Balmoral: Sunday 10/6 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (50 - 103 / $180.80): FOX VALLEY LEGEND (9th)
Spot Play: SOBER AS A JUDGE (4th)
(8) MONTICELLO LULU comes off an easy victory first start in a new barn and has gate speed to get early position. (4) OINKERS filly raced gamely in her first start at the big track trotting a nice last quarter. (2) HAPPY BALANCE made a break last out but if the gelding stays trotting he would probably get a piece; threat.
In a three horse race (3) SARA THE SPY comes off a super qualifier and is the horse to beat. (2) DIVINATION just missed to a really good opponent last out and benefits from the top driver. (5) JUST FOR FUN filly has had a super year and just needs honest fractions up front to close into.
(9) KENNANS NANCY LEE should offer a big price and gets sent out for proven connections. (8) BOILER HEIDI HO mare is a head case but has the ability to win at a decent price; versatile. (6) JUSTINE'S PRIDE mare looked lame last out but was really sharp a few starts ago. Try and get a look at her on the track in the post parade to get a better idea.
(3) SOBER AS A JUDGE gelding made a costly break last out but is the horse to beat if he stays pacing. (2) L A CAMCHARGER three-year-old makes his second start in a new barn and comes off a really big effort kicking home nicely off dull cover. (1) CHEYENN SHARK two-year-old faces older but does draw the rail and should save some ground before shaking loose late.
In an extremely wide open race (10) PHOTO SURPRISE is a live longshot that over-trotted himself last out but will need to float for position for his best chance to hit the top spot. (1) TOUR HALL has made breaks in three straight starts as the favorite. However the 2-year-old does have a hall of fame pilot guiding him from the rail and probably has the most ability in the race. (9) FOX VALLEY VETO lightly raced trotter is saddled with a bad post but does show enough gate speed to get a good early spot.
(3) BRIEF'S BOY was an easy winner last out and would have won by more if he could have gotten out earlier. (1) THATSWHATTHEYSAY four-year-old has a lot of positives going for him. The gelding draws the rail and makes his first start in a new barn that has recently had success in this scenario. (4) RIGHT ON RAY doesn't win very often but did race really well last out for a new barn.
In a very suspect field (2) FINANCIAL EFFORT takes a big drop in class and looks to be in a great spot to do some damage. (8) BUTTERFLY KISSER filly needed her last start badly just missing and has flashed some big speed in the past. (5) MEARL FINN mare rarely wins but has been pacing better than her lines show; use underneath.
(2) WOLFIES SPORTSTER four-year-old has a good record in this class and just needs a good trip to have his nose on the wire. (8) LARRY'S PLACE gelding makes his first start in a new barn and has won two straight; threat. (1) ALABAMA HOWARD five-year-old will be winging early and could use a middle-half breather; vulnerable late.
(10) FOX VALLEY LEGEND made an uncharacteristic break last out but if the 3-year-old stays trotting he would be very tough to beat. (5) FOX VALLEY DUBAI gets a big driver change and has the most ability in the race besides the top choice. (8) TAXMAN trotter is very inconsistent going from having lots of trot to empty week to week.
(2) FOX VALLEY MALONE was the top drivers' choice of three and comes off a nice qualifier. (3) MAKE YOUR MOVE four-year-old stallion looks to be a major player in the race and gets sent out from a barn that has had good recent success. (1) JPS MINI ME three-year-old draws the rail and has been knocking on the door at upsetting at a price.
- 1.Posted 12/05/2013 01:44PM
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