10/11/2013 2:29PM

Balmoral: Sunday 10/13 Analysis


Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 104 / $180.80): METRO LAD (7th)

Spot Play: GATOR BOY (3rd)


Race 1

(2) MY LITTLE BIT the connections will be out for revenge after being parked in the a big money stakes race.  (7) MOLLY GO LIGHTLY has not lost a race in over five weeks and has the advantage of a driver who has been dominating.  (1) FOX VALLEY SHIVER draws the rail and should save some ground before shaking loose late; use underneath.

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Race 2

(2) DANCING DYNAMITE filly might have the most upside in the race but needs to stay trotting which has been a struggle.  Wait to see if the 2-year-old is on the gate before using in your wagers.  (4) PETTICOAT AFFAIR filly looks like a standout on paper adding lasix for the second time and is the Kentucky sire stakes champ bankrolling over 171k.  However the filly was dreadful in her last start and the qualifiers lacked pop; use caution.  (1) BAILEY'S WISH dominated a weak bunch in her last two and now will try to prove she belongs.

Race 3

(10) GATOR BOY well bred 2-year-old has the best pedigree and will offer a great price.  The freshman pacer needs to leave off the gate to have his best chance for a victory.  (6) SVAYA KNOWS has been much better racing gamely her last start.  (5) DUNESIDE ART showed a big burst of speed last out before tiring late on a sloppy track and keeps the top driver.

Race 4

(4) PINKING OF YOU could be the dark horse in the field that could be wide open if the favorite should falter.  (6) PRAY WITH ME will be a heavy favorite based on some fast times at Lexington.  The filly does have the fastest mark on the year but will offer no value.  (1) DRESS FOR SUCCESS has some ability, draws the rail, and could hit the board at a big price.

Race 5

In a field with few contenders (8) HELLO MY DREAM faced stiff competition in Lexington and now faces a much softer field.  (4) RYLEIGH'S LILLY upset at a big price last out and appears to be one of the faster pacers in the race.  (1) BUTTERFLY KISSER three-year-old flashed talent early in the year but has had some issues and comes off a miscue last out.

Race 6

(7) FOX VALLEY VETO just missed at a big price last out even after making a break.  The 2-year-old needs to mind her manners but can turn the tables with a good trip.  (3) PHOTO SURPRISE trotted a huge mile from a tough post last out and should be considered the horse to beat.   (8) EXPLOSIVE CASH has stayed flat in two straight starts and has some upside in the race.

Race 7

(3) METRO LAD goes out for a red hot driver and won without even breaking a sweat last out almost as if it was measured from the start.  (2) BEACH'S NICK could be one of two threats in the race to the favorite and also paced a good mile last out.  (6) LITTLE BIT SIDEWAYS makes his first start in a new barn that has done well in that scenario.

Race 8

(10) WESTERN DEAL takes a big class drop and faces a much easier field; my only concern is the gelding finding a way into the race.  (4) ELKHORN DAMIEN has been first or second in six straight starts; threat.  (1) TIZA MOJO has it working, winning three straight easily and might get a great trip up close to the pace.

Race 9

In a really weak and inconsistent trotting event (8) JUSTICE AND FIFTH is just as good as anybody in the field and just needs a smooth trip to hit the board at a big price.  (9) MARY'S LAW comes off a scratch but had started to turn it around prior.  (7) BANDS ZEPHYR trotter put in a big effort last out but has yet to show any consistency.

Race 10

(9) BOILER HEIDI HO is reunited with the top pilot and has dominated most of the group all year.  (10) KENNANS NANCY LEE has been racing better than her lines show and doesn't have much gate speed which could put her in a tough spot early; fires late.  (3) BROOKLETSSUGARLAND mare gets sent out for connections who have done well recently; threat.

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