09/27/2012 4:09PM

Balmoral: Saturday 9/29 Analysis

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Best Bet: UNCLE SMOOTHIE (2nd)      Spot Play: FOX VALLEY TOUCHE (6th)

Race 1

(3) WHIRLWINDIPLOMACY drew off on his return to the big track impressively.  Gelding takes a slight bump up in class but has a great post; short price.  (5) SERGEANT STRYKER has been used hard in his last two starts, look for this one to get a much better trip this time.  (4) SCHERZO is not facing much besides top choice.  3yr old gelding could get a good spot off the gate and shake loose late.

Race 2

(1) UNCLE SMOOTHIE owns five victories on the year and faces a much softer field.  3yr old gelding is versatile but look for this one to be upfront.  (3) KINGS LEGEND put in a stellar effort last out just missing.  Gelding has stepped his game up recently and just needs a good trip to be there on the wire.  (5) ICE SCRAPER owns good gate speed and should be forwardly placed.

Race 3

(4) LOOKIN AHEAD  put in a good qualifier after making a miscue.  Gelding owns some back class and is dropping; threat.  (3) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN is a 3 yr old facing older but does have some talent.  Gelding has a good post and should be in line for a good trip.  (2) TREASURER JOHN was trotting up a storm late last out.  Should a speed battle develop early on, look for him to pick up the pieces late.

Race 4

In a race that was very difficult to handicap (1) JIMENY'S STAR may have needed that last start and picks up a great post.  Gelding owns gate speed and will be forwardly placed at a good price.  (6) MAJESTIC ROYALE was used hard on the front last mile before fading late.  Gelding finds a very soft spot and will be trying to take them coast to coast; vulnerable late.  (7) MIKE LANIGAN put in a solid effort in returning to the big track.  7yr old may improve a bit off that last effort.

Race 5

(2) HEATH takes a big class drop and probably would have won last start had he gotten out a bit earlier; short price.  (9) JO JO SPUR is also dropping in class and just needs some pace to chase for his best chance.  (3) GOOSE ON THE ROCKS well bred colt has had a very disappointing 3yr old season.  He does however have the talent.  Colt is facing older but has a good post to work with look; shakes loose late.

Race 6

(7) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE takes a big drop in class and owns great gate speed.  Mare will be firing early.  (1) FOX VALLEY PRALINE was brutalized last out.  Mare gets the best post and could try and get a stalking trip.  (4) LETS TALK ABOUT ME has been really flat in her last 2 starts.  She is facing less other than top choice; use caution.

Race 7

(5) LE SIRENUSE was simply awesome last out where she circled the field after lagging the gate.  She's right back in the same class and looks to make it two in a row.  (4) BRUSH THIRTEEN is making his second start after a long layoff.  Gelding showed good late kick and should only improve off that effort; big chance.  (2) LIGHT IN THE ROOM was a game winner last out finally minding his manners. 

Race 8

(4) ALS HAMMERED drew off in the final last out winning by almost ten lengths.  3yr old colt has a devastating stretch kick and will be a very short price.  (7) POWER OF TARA N gelding has won three in a row and did so impressively  from a very difficult spot last start.  He is very versatile and will probably float for position.  (5) BIG DADDY WOO WOO keeps top driver and owns back class.

Race 9

(2) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT is only 1 for 27 on the year but owns excellent gate speed.  Mare is facing much easier than her recent starts and could offer some value; big chance.  (6) SECTIONLINE YANKEE is a lightly raced 3yr old that is immensely talented.  She is very versatile and could be primed for a big effort.  (1) OG'S MARIE D just missed last time out after chasing a game winner.  She has the best post and could be overlooked a bit in the betting.

Race 10

(1A) BELL VALLEY BILL was used very hard last time out.  Gelding just needs a smooth trip to get his 4th victory of the year, and would benefit from racing on a helmet.  (4) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY takes a step up in class but might have gained some confidence from his win in last start.  He could use a hot pace to chase for his best chance.  (5) FOX VALLEY MAHALO was flying late in his last start.  3yr old gelding is facing older but has the talent to be in the money. 

Race 11

(4) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS looked to be a winner last out before taking a bad step.  3yr old owns wicked late kick and could use a hot pace upfront; must use.  (7) DOUBLETROUBLE drops down in class where he was a winner a few starts back.  Gelding owns some back class and should be firing late.  (3) SPECIAL JOE just missed last start and is right back in the same condition; use underneath.

Race 12

(5) WISCONSIN GIRL has now had four starts since a long layoff.  Mare is dropping in class, has tactical gate speed, and is coming off a good effort.  (8) WHISTLE PIG makes her second start in the condition and closed with good late kick last out.  Mare will likely be far back early and could use a fast pace to close into; owns one good brush.  (2) DEVACHAN finally gets a good post and is in a condition where she can compete.

Race 13

(2)  ZAMBRANO gelding has been on a tear and is right back into the same conditions.  3yr old is very versatile and gives driver a lot of options; must use.  (5) FREDDY TO RUMBLE only has one win on the year but is racing really good right now.  Gelding just missed in last two efforts to top choice; use underneath.  (9) SHAX put in a very disappointing effort last start off a good trip.  Gelding likes to go to the lead and just needs to race back to his form from a couple of starts ago to get a piece.
 

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