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Balmoral: Saturday 9/28 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (48 - 100 / $170.00): COCOTIER (3rd)
Spot Play: WHISTLE PIG (6th)
(7) PAPASGOTHEBESTGO his last effort came from nowhere and when you look at the breeding this 3-year-old could be anything. (10) JAMAICAN COWBOY might be the best horse in the race but will need some help up front with a fast pace. (6) ODDS ON SERPENS well bred pacer has a long way to go but has gate speed and potential.
(6) SAGE RUCK got his first win of the year last out and faces a field full of question marks; top drivers' choice. (3) LUCKY CRUSADER four year old needed his last start and has shown big ability in the past; threat. (7) REX PASSUS might be a good play in the race because he gets sent out for a top barn and just needs to stay pacing to be a player late.
(5) COCOTIER well bred gelding is starting to show his talent winning easily in a life mark and needed the start. The sophomore trotter will be tough to beat with any kind of improvement. (7) FOX VALLEY SIENNA this mare trotted a big mile after making a break at the gate. The mare gets a provisional driver but based on that last effort is a threat. (1) CLEVER UPSTART was taken out of the race by a horse who blew the turn at the top of the stretch. Nine-year-old veteran gets the best post and should be in line for a great trip.
(1a) SILVER DEVIL went a tough trip parked the mile in the Super Night final but the well bred gelding is facing a much easier field. (6) FOX VALLEY ACTION is in the same boat as the top choice and is one of the better horses in the race. (1) DRUNK ON YOU hasn't won on the year but has paced some very fast miles.
In a field with few contenders (4) LB'S ALAMERICANJOY was no match for the best 3-year-old in the country at Hoosier but he was razor sharp prior. The pacer will be firing early and would be the horse to beat if he races back to his last line at this track. (3) IAM BONASERA is the biggest threat to the top choice owning all the back class. The powerful pacer will be a handful and picks up a red hot top driver. (7) SOME HEART THROB was starting to excel before a short layoff but will have to be ready to pace a huge mile to get by the top two; use underneath.
(4) WHISTLE PIG mare might be the sleeper in the race despite never getting into her last race but she was starting to come around. (9) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE is the class of the field and is the fastest horse in the race off the gate; fires early. (1a) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT will also be firing early and is in her best form in a long time.
(1) UNCLE BUD four-year-old gets the best post and is one of few horses to actually close on a game opponent last out. (5) MIDDLE AGED CRAZY gelding paced a huge mile last out closing from a very tough spot. The 3-year-old is loaded with talent and is still just figuring out how to race. (4) GIBBS went a really big effort last out sent down the road. The 5-year-old is versatile and just needs a good trip to have his nose on the wire.
(9) TOBINS FORTUNE has become a really nice pacer and might be able to handle this field even with the worst post. (6) ELKHORN DAMIEN gelding has been sharp in his last four efforts but will offer low value and doesn't have to win. (3) JOEY LEE MACDAVID is pacing better than his lines show and just needs a good setup to take advantage of.
(5) FORT SILKY veteran pacer has had a career year and will be very tough to beat; fires early. (1a) BEST MAN HANOVER gelding is most likely the only threat to the top choice despite some hiccups in his last two. (6) MAJOR MONET seven-year-old could take advantage of his big time gate speed and be in a good spot early.
(7) CRANKIN' IT UP faces older but has been racing gamely and is very versatile. (3) RICHESS EMPEROR doesn't win a lot but is facing much easier and the last time he dropped to this level he made it to the winners circle; threat. (6) DABESTLEADEREVER came up empty after pacing some fast miles. If the 6-year-old reverts back to his prior he would probably hit the ticket.
(2) LC TIFFANY mare has a history at this track and the trainer does extremely well too. (6) WEEKEND LOVE mare has some ability and faces easier than her last two. (5) WINDSUN MONTECARLO looks to just be racing evenly but can jump up and pace big miles at any time.
In what looks to be a wide open race on paper (5) DP ANGEL made a break last out but keeps the top driver and will probably try a different tactic this week and fire out of the gate. (3) CAMS SAHBRA was tremendous last out closing from way back but has yet to show any consistency; use caution. (1) PHOBIC PRINCESS mare draws the rail and is one of the faster horses in the race; threat.
(6) BOI five year old raced well last out and just needs a smooth trip. (1) ONE LAST CHANCE just missed last out after setting all the fractions from the ten hole; fires early. (3) CINNAMON SPIDER gelding looks terrible on paper but will be a monster price and will look to shake loose late for a piece.
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