09/20/2012 4:16PM

Balmoral: Saturday 9/22 Analysis


Best Bet: BELL VALLEY BILL (8th)      Spot Play: COLLET HOTSPUR (4th)

Race 1

(4) NICE PARTY just got jammed up last time while making a miscue.  Filly picks up a good driver change and has loads of talent.  (2) SPECIAL ROSE was parked the mile last out.  2yr old gets post relief and is versatile.  She should be forwardly placed off the gate.  (3) FOX VALLEY RUBY shows good gate speed, and should be in line for a good stalking trip.

Race 2

(2) SAGE RUCK never got into the mile last start.  Gelding shows good late kick at the end of his miles and gets a key driver change.  (1a) FOX VALLEY NORMAN finds a much softer field, and just needs a smooth trip to put him in the winner’s circle.  (6) MURVEY VINNY is a two time winner on the year.  He gets a touch of post relief and is facing less.

Race 3

(7) MY BOY CAL has had three superb efforts in a row.  He is facing less and should be firing off cover late; must use.  (4) LE-SIRENUSE chased a game winner in last two starts.  Gelding has good gate speed and should be near the lead.  (8) DAVE'S BID never got into the mile last start, but has shown the ability to sprint home.  He just needs a fast pace to close into for his best chance.

Race 4

(3) COLLETT HOTSPUR had a very tough first over trip in last.  2yr old has only had three lifetime starts, but has the talent and should improve.  (4) COLECHESTER shows an excellent effort two starts back, if he repeats that effort it could put him in the money.  (2) KOSTAS WINE had an excellent effort last out.  2yr old gelding was shuffled back and came charging late.  He has some room to improve and should be in a great position turning for home.

Race 5

(3) KINGS LEGEND had some bad luck in the final with a flat tire.  Gelding shows monster late kick, and gets a much softer field; short price.  (4) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY has been facing a lot tougher, and is in a great spot to get a good trip.  (6) DICK MCTRACY 3yr old has had a disappointing year, and is facing older.  He is loaded with talent and could be sitting on a big one any week.

Race 6

(1) ZAMBRANO has been nothing short of sensational in his last five starts.  He circled the field last time from a tough spot.  This week he is posted inside against the same class.  (2) FREDDY TO RUMBLE is racing really good right now.  He didn't have anywhere to pace last week or could have upset top choice.  (4) YERMANOS put in a solid effort last out.  He could use some pace to chase and a good cover trip; use underneath.

Race 7

(2) ZALL GOOD was used extremely hard in the final last week.  He ripped thru three quarters in 122.1 before fading out of it.  He is facing older but has the talent and just needs a trip.  (1) TINK AND TIGER gets a key drop in class and has the best post to work with.  He should be in line for a good stalking trip.  (6) SPECIAL JOE is also dropping and owns good gate speed.  He should be forwardly placed and should be considered a threat.

Race 8

(1) BELL VALLEY BILL has been racing really good while facing a lot better.  He finds a soft spot and has an excellent post; owns good late kick.  (3) SMILING BOB used hard last week, but sports a couple of good efforts in recent.  He is also facing less and should be a factor late.  (2a) WASHINGTON HANOVER might have needed that last start, and has some back class.  A fast pace greatly increases this one's chances

Race 9

(5) POWER OF TARA N is really sharp right now.  9yr old has won two consecutive and looks to make it three in a row at another short price.  (1a) BEST MAN HANOVER has absolutely been flying home late in his last two, and looks to be fresh.  4yr old gelding needs someone to mix it up early with the favorite for best chance.  (4) LENNOX BLUE CHIP never got involved in the mile last week.  He gets post relief and should be forwardly placed off the gate.

Race 10

(8) LITTLE MORE RAM has put together three solid efforts in a row.  Gelding owns good tactical gate speed and will be leaving for position; better off a helmet.  (4) BROOKLYN'S DESIRE put in a good mile last out, where he chased a game winner.  He owns one big move and has a better chance from off the pace.  (1) UNITY ROAD was a game winner last out in the same conditions.  He is posted outside and doesn't have a lot of gate speed.  He will be a very short price with the entry, and will also be far back early; can't recommend taking a short price.

Race 11

(1) NINA COLEADA has now had two starts over the track which is a positive.  4yr old mare has good closing speed and should be in a great stalking spot.  (9) LR DANCING DREAM is pacing up a storm right now.  She likes to be upfront and has been very sharp lately.  If the mare gets a breather on the lead she will be very tough to catch.  (2) OG'S MARIE D is in career form right now.  The 8 yr old mare is very versatile and could actually get the trip behind the favorite.

Race 12

(2) WHISTLE PIG was in a bad spot last out and takes a key drop in class.  She gets an excellent post to work with and should be firing late.  (3) BP GIANT FOOL has chased some good horses in her last few miles.  She should be in line for a ground saving trip; look to shake loose late.  (6) JUST BY DESIGN is 0 for 17 on the year, but has shown some signs of life in her last few.  She needs some pace to chase and a little luck to snap her losing streak.

Race 13

(5) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS is a stretch running sensation.  He shows wicked last quarter closing speed and is on a tear; tough to go against.  (4) CAMARROW was used extremely hard from a tough post last out.  He will have a very difficult task getting past the top selection, but could be sitting on a big effort.  (9) ELK HORN DAMIEN takes a huge drop in class.  Gelding has won 8 times on the year and finds a level where he can compete.  He will need a hot pace up front for his best chance to upset.

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