09/13/2012 2:52PM

Balmoral: Saturday 9/15 Analysis


Best Bet: ROCKIN RUMBLE (9th)   Spot Play: BUTTERFLY KISSER (7th)

Race 1

(5) MAEVEY GRAVY had a lackluster effort last out. Look for her to be involved early and show her usual late kick. (1) POWERFUL STAR had a perfect ground-saving trip last out for her second win of the year. The 3yr old has good gate speed and should get another ideal trip, if she can shake loose late. (7) B FLY MCQUEEN  never got involved last week.  She has a slightly better post and should the favorites battle early, she has the talent and kick to trot past.

Race 2

(7) VAPORSTAR has excellent gate speed and should be on the top or in the pocket. He has been off for three weeks but should be fresh; needs a big effort.  (3) RICCOLO hasn’t raced in six weeks but does show a qualifier on 8-30.  He is 9 for 10 on the year and is back racing against IL breds. If he’s ready, he could draw off at a short price. (2) RECOLLECTION has really found his stride in the last two months, and the last mile was deceptively good. Look for this one to be forwardly placed off the gate and should any chaos develop, he should be trotting strong at the wire.

Race 3

(1) TOSHIE SPECIAL is racing against a much weaker field and shows the best late kick. She has an excellent post and just needs a good trip to sweep past. (8) OG’S MARIE D was a sharp winner last out. She has a much tougher post and might have to navigate some traffic, but has really turned the corner recently. (9) COLE BLUE was parked the mile last week, but that won’t stop this one from firing right to the top. If she can get a breather in the middle part of the mile, she should get a piece.

Race 4 

(3) MYSTICAL VICTRESS is hard to go against as she sports an impressive eight victories in nine tries. Mare has an excellent post and will be a very short price. She has dominated her in state competition so far this year. (1) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE has excellent tactical gate speed and she will be trying to secure a good early spot. This one is very versatile and shows good late kick as well. (2) CHINA GAL had a very adventurous tough trip last out; far back early and didn’t close much. She has a much better post and will be a lot closer. If there is an early speed battle, look for her to be flying late.

Race 5 

(3) KENDYL is the one to beat in a very tough and wide open race. She picks up a top driver and has a good post; any kind of trip puts her in the money. (4) WILLOW GRAM is 0-14 on the year, but shows a very good effort last out kicking home in 27 3/5. She shows breaks up until the last effort. If she can duplicate her effort from last time, she could upset. (2) MOMENT OF MAGIC finds a much softer field than she’s been facing. Filly has a good post and does have the ability. (8) STICKS is 5 for 15 lifetime, which is far better than most in this race. She could be the most talented horse in the field.

Race 6

(4) PARTY HANGOVER has won three in a row, although she struggled to get past the leader last week. Look for her on the lead or in the pocket. A nice patient drive and good trip gets it done. (1) NO RESPECT needed that last start and should be much tighter this week; excellent post and likely quick pace should help. (5) SLEAZY DOES IT is very well bred and has an excellent kick home. She had a tough trip last week but wasn’t overly used.  A speed battle upfront greatly increases this one’s chances.

Race 7

(1) BUTTERFLY KISSER made a miscue last out but has the talent and speed to beat this field. She has won half her starts and just needs to mind her manners to get in the winner’s circle. (6) DUNE IN RED was an early season sensation before tailing off in her last few starts. She has been used multiple times in her last two miles and will probably try to make one big run at them this time. (2) NICE PARTY is a lightly raced colt with lots of talent. He should improve some off that last effort.

Race 8

(9) AUNIQUEAQUISTION was a very impressive winner last out for some high profile connections. In a year when the 2yr olds haven’t separated themselves, we may have a candidate. Two for two lifetime and could be sitting on a lot more, as she has shown improvement each week. (1) THANK YOU DOC was shuffled back in her last start but closed best of all. She has an ideal post and just needs a good trip to get picture taken. (8) INCREDIBLE FILLY won her division rather easily but will need to go a lot faster to win the final. She is saddled with a bad post and will need to leave for position.

Race 9

(5) ROCKIN RUMBLE had been razor sharp before the miscue last out. He has blazing gate speed but is versatile and will be very tough to beat if he gets an easy lead; must use. (7) PARK LANE DEPUTY has come back to impress after a one year hiatus. He was never able to get involved last week but is in a lot easier; back class should land this one in the money. (8) BIG DADDY WOO WOO is a classy gelding that might have needed that last start. Look for this one to leave for position and shake loose late.

Race 10

(1) PEACHYS PISTOL is coming off two really tough trips. He makes his 4th start off the layoff and is facing much lesser; primed and ready for a big effort. (2) SS TOMMY TURNER is in a great spot to do some damage. He has the best post and excellent gate speed; ideal trip? (1a) ACROPHOBIA is the other part of the entry and shows wicked speed. Two starts back he brushed to the three quarters in 122 3/5, which is impressive. (8) YANKEE DOODLE JIM has also been facing tougher and his last two miles were deceptively good.

Race 11

(5)ALS HAMMERED has been ultra-impressive and won from an impossible spot last week. The closing ability of this one is a sight to see, as he can flat out fly home; perfect post for the way he races. Take the short price. (8) NJ’S BIG DEAL was a wire to wire winner last out, and to say his task is tougher this time would be an understatement. There is tons of speed in here and I suspect there will be a hot pace; better with a cover trip. (4) UNCLE SMOOTHIE is very fast and consistent. He needed that last start and is primed and ready for another big effort.

Race 12

(5) IAM BONASERA was an easy winner last out drawing away. He should be in line to control the pace from upfront; hard to go against. (8) WELL TO DO GURU is having another banner year and is the most likely to upset the favorite. He will also be leaving, and has to decide if he wants to try and secure a pocket trip by blasting. Otherwise look for him to be first or second over. (6) BOI will be blasting as well and could end up with a stalking trip.  He would need to find a lot more to get by the first two choices.

Race 13

(7) CHECK OUT MY BODY posted an excellent effort last time out chasing better. He is 6 for 8 on the year with some of those wins coming on the fair circuit. Speed is his game and he should be up near the pace. (6) DARTH QUAIDER lays over the field on paper, but has had three very lackluster performances in a row. This is his second start on Lasix, which should help, but I wouldn’t recommend taking a short price. (5) COLLETT HOTSPUR is a very lightly raced gelding. He has put in had two superb efforts and should improve in what is his only 3rd start of the year. 

Race 14 

(2) FOX VALLEY ACTION has been racing awesome and gets an ideal post.  Two-year-old loves to win and will be very tough to beat. (7) MYSTICAL WALTER went slower than some of the others last out, but that could benefit him in this race. At 3 for 4 on the year, he is probably sitting on a big one. (4) BIG BRAD has only two starts in his short career so far, and for a moment last out looked like he might go by top choice. Expect improvement and another big effort. (3) FANCY CREEK ELUSIV has had some traffic trouble in his last two, but that didn’t stop him from rolling home to get his picture taken in his elim; much better post could lead to upset.