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Balmoral: Saturday 8/31 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (46 - 91 / $162.20): I AM BONASERA (8th)
Spot Play: FOX VALLEY MATINEE (9th)
(4) JPS MINI ME raced well off the scratch. Gelding should offer a big price and finds a very average field. (7) BEACH'S NICK picks up a top driver and gets sent out for a hot barn; threat. (3) BELL VALLEY ART has been racing gamely in his last few starts and could use a fast pace up front to close into.
(1A) BEST MAN HANOVER went a huge mile last out just getting tired late. The well-bred pacer is versatile and will be tough to beat with a smooth trip. (5) TIME TO ROLL was a sharp winner last out against the same field. This 4-year-old races better when forwardly placed but can do it from off the pace as well. (4) LENNOX BLUE CHIP is also racing gamely but is consistently a tick slower than the top two choices; use underneath.
(8) MY BOY CAL has a lot of ability but doesn't always give the effort needed. The 4-year old races much better on the big track and will be firing late. (3) ALEQUASH HOTSPUR faces older but has a lot of upside in the race and put in a good first effort off the bench. The lightly raced pacer adds Lasix for the second time, picks up a top driver and makes his second start back off a long layoff. (2) PANSAFLYING just doesn't win very often but appears to be pacing faster than most of the field; vulnerable late.
(2) MONOPOLY MAN isn't the soundest horse but has been facing much tougher and will be difficult to beat with a good effort. (6) KOSTAS WINE raced evenly last out but does have some ability in the short field. (7) PREEMPTIVE BID has been very disappointing in his last three starts and would need more late.
(8) CRANKIN' IT UP faces older pacers but might be fast enough to step up; fires early. (5) THUNDER STEELER put in a big effort from a tough post last out and has raced much better in his recent starts. (6) GIBBS owns only one win on the year but takes a good drop in class and should be considered a threat in the wide open race.
(3) COLE BLUE takes a bump up in class after a wire to wire victory but was the driver's choice. (8) BIG ZIPPER put in a big move last out but couldn't clear the leader before fading. The filly faces older and the regular pilot chose off. (1) OSAGE draws the rail, makes her second start back off a long layoff and should show improvement.
(5) MYSTICAL VICTRESS looks very tough to beat on paper and has won three straight; short price. (3) WINDSUN MONTECARLO put in a good effort from a tough post in her last; use underneath. (4) PARTY HANGOVER has regressed in her last two after looking like she could give the top choice a run for her money.
(6) IAM BONASERA owns a ton of back-class, makes his second start off a long layoff and will be charging hard late. Should the top choice make a break or falter, (1) LB'S ALAMERICANJOY is the horse to beat. The sophomore pacer was a game winner coming off throat surgery and has more in the tank. (2) FOX VALLEY ACTION has had a nightmare year so far but the talent is there and the pacer could hit the ticket at a price.
(7) FOX VALLEY MATINEE always gives a good effort and usually offers a nice price; threat. (1) REV ME UP lacks stamina late and if you've watched her recent efforts would be tough to use on the top spot. (4) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT steps up in class but was an open pacer last year and might have started to turn it around with two nice victories in a row.
(1) ICE SCRAPER had no business winning last week but exploded home once he shook loose in the lane and would be tough to beat with a similar effort. (9) DABESTLEADEREVER is saddled with a tough post but takes a good drop in class. (3) BROOKLYN FLIGHT raced gamely against much tougher and a good effort puts him in the money.
Former Illinois Horse of the Year (4) PARDON took a year off but looks to just now be in racing shape and gets a good driver change; big chance. (5) BECKY B SKIPALONG looks terrible on paper but does drop in class and don't be surprised if this one is loaded with pace late. (8) MISS PAT WEISER raced really well last out, fighting gamely all the way to the wire. The 6-year-old is versatile and a contender in the race.
(4) GALACTIC STAR has been used very aggressively the last few starts and could use a breather up front for his best chance. (7) SHAX owns a big late kick and could sweep past late in the right scenario. (3) ELKHORN DAMIEN is very inconsistent but a good effort would make him a threat.
(8) VAN DONK has good speed off the gate but when looked in the eye hasn't put up much of a fight. However, the pacer does find a very suspect field. (7) BC'S CHIEF could be the only threat to the top choice. The 4-year-old makes his second start in a new barn and could be sitting on a big effort. (10) JUDY'S HERO has been facing much tougher at Hoosier and is saddled with a bad post. The 6-year-old gelding could be at the mercy of bad cover unless he floats for position.
- 1.Posted 12/12/2013 10:03AM
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