03/14/2013 3:00PM

Balmoral: Saturday 3/16 Analysis


Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (16 - 26 / $57.00): HERBIE L (3rd)       

Spot Play: UNCLE BUD (12th)


Race 1

(1) DONTBEACHATME gelding appears to be improving with every start and gets the best post.  (2) ALL DUNE lightly raced gelding had some late pace after being shuffled and also gets a good post in a suspect field. (6) PARKLANE SCOOTER gelding had broken equipment last start and looks to be pacing faster than most.

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Race 2

(2) DALLAS JONES filly has really turned it around and faces a softer field than her last start. (5) FOX VALLEY MATINEE mare just missed last out and has shown good late kick in every recent start.  (3) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT mare would have been a heavy favorite six months ago but has really tailed off; use caution.

Race 3

(1) HERBIE L gelding hasn't had the best steers but has been racing himself back into shape, draws the rail, and will most likely be on the lead.  (2) BENNS SCORE KEEPER gelding could be the only threat to the top choice and owns one good move in the race.  (4) SQUONK eight-year-old gelding threw in a clunker last out and would need even more; use underneath.

Race 4

(6) DEE DEE SAGE mare was used very aggressively last out before fading.  Six-year-old makes her third start back and owns back class on the field.  (8) LCB SANDY mare was a wrapped-up winner last out but now climbs back up the class ladder and needs a fast pace up front to close into.  (7) ARTS-ROCKSTAR the mare never got into the mile last out but had been sharp prior.

Race 5

(2) WOLFIES SPORTSTER gelding has the most upside in the race and should be closer turning for home; fires late.  (4) ONE LAST CHANCE gelding never made up any ground on the leaders last out but always gives an honest effort; versatile. (8) ZAMBRANO gelding was a game winner last out but would need more from his outside starting post.

Race 6

(4) BELL VALLEY BILL gelding gets away from some better pacers and looks to be consistently firing late.  (1) HEATH gelding draws the rail and appears to be in a great spot to do some damage; short price.  (5) WHIRLWINDIPLOMACY gelding takes a big jump in class but could have more to offer.

Race 7

(4) MAJOR MALE five-year-old has been racing really well but was too far back last out.  Stallion just needs a smooth trip to get his picture taken.  (5) PECK BLUE CHIP gelding has won two straight for the leading trainer and will be controlling the mile upfront; vulnerable late.  (1) MARKY MIKE gelding needed his last start, draws the rail, and should be considered a huge threat late.

Race 8

(2) WHISTLE PIG mare has been sharp, should offer great value, and could find the race set up nicely for her with fast fractions up front. (9) DIDRICKSON seven-year-old mare has been facing better but doesn't always give her best effort shipping to different tracks; use caution.  (6) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE mare wasn't as good last out and looks to rebound; fires early.

Race 9

(8) ST ELMO HERO gelding has had some time off that could benefit him nicely as he was on a roll.  (4) THUNDER STEELER gelding is pacing up a storm right now but gets a big test for class here.  (7) FORT SILKY gelding could make it tough on the top choice if he decides to blast for position; threat.

Race 10

(1) OLD MAN RIVER gelding got beat by a game winner last out, draws a great post, and is versatile.  (7) SPECIAL JOE gelding is racing gamely and should fire early for position.  (8) DONT WORRY B HAPPY gelding had a tough trip last out but finds a softer field.

Race 11

(10) STAMPED BY DESIGN should offer a big price and has been really sharp facing tougher.  (1) STAR CITY HERO gelding drops back down in class, draws the rail, and is facing an inconsistent field.   (9) ARCH VILLAIN gelding steps up in class, but was impressive last out grinding uncovered.

Race 12

(4) UNCLE BUD made a huge move first up from way back last out and his line doesn't nearly indicate how good he was.  (2) DRIVE 'EM COWBOY gelding was loaded with pace last out with nowhere to go and should be in line for a good ground-saving trip.  (3) JACKSON BERLOW gelding finds a field where he can be very competitive and I believe the 5-year-old does his best work from off the pace.

Race 13

(2) RIO'S Z TAM gelding put in a game effort last out from a tough spot and should be closer turning for home.  (8) ZALL GOOD I have been tossing this guy off the top spot for a long time but his last mile was eye catching; threat.  (7) FOX VALLEY LIBERO gelding was 15 lengths off the starting gate last out but could be sitting on a big effort.