12/04/2014 4:25PM

Balmoral: Saturday 12/6 Analysis

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Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (53 - 102 / $205.20): ALWYSBREAKINHEARTS (6th)

Spot Play: FOX VALLEY NORMAN (8th)

 

Race 1

(7) PERCHED ON TOP filly has a good burst of speed and just needs a good setup for a big chance late.  (5) ODDS ON TOPAZ well bred filly needed her last start and should be better second start off the layoff.  (4) VICTORIA IVY owns only one win on the year but has been close against a similar bunch.

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Race 2

(5) DIXIE'S BOY went a big effort first over last out just missing.   (7) FIRST FROST gelding has a ton of upside and looks to be getting better with every start.  (8) RED PINE was right there with the top two choices last out from the toughest post.

Race 3

(5) SONNY DEAN two-year old sneaks into the conditions one last time; short price.  (6) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL finds a field full of question marks besides the top choice.  (2) TOUCH THE SKY three-year-old colt makes his second career start and has room to improve.

Race 4

(1a) ARTACHE HANOVER beat a better field last out showing a big late kick.  The pacer should offer value even coming off the win.  (3) BEST MAN HANOVER has been going some big miles but will need a better effort than his most recent start.  (2) TIME TO ROLL will need much more than his last few; command a price.

Race 5

(6) HELLO MY DREAM takes a significant drop in competition and just needs a smooth trip to have her nose on the wire.  (2) WINGS mare drops back down in class and is sharp.   (4) WHISTLE PIG mare is capable against this group and does her best racing from off the pace.

Race 6

(1) ALWYSBREAKINHEARTS gelding has been really good at this level; fires early.  (1a) WASHINGTON HANOVER was competitive against much tougher earlier in the year.  (5) REVOLUTIONARY doesn't look the best on paper but can jump up with a big effort any week.

Race 7

(5) JUSTICE JET gelding needs a good drive from a provisional pilot but owns a big brush when timed right.  (1) CELEBRITY HERCULES has just been racing evenly but will look to bounce back from the rail.  (8) TIME OUTA JAIL gets a good driver change and seems to be improving despite the break last out.

Race 8

(2) FOX VALLEY NORMAN has been facing much tougher and should be close with a good effort.  (3) HEAVENLY BEACHES was too far back trying to close into a soft middle half.  The pacer has a good late kick and just needs honest fractions up front.  (6) ALEQUASH HOTSPUR drew off at this level last out but has yet to show any consistency; use caution.

Race 9

In a tough race to handicap (9) FASHION DELIGHT holds a class edge on most of the field and raced gamely last out.  (4) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE is very inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts him in the mix.  (7) EXTRAVAGANT ART needs an ideal trip to hit the top spot but is capable of hitting the ticket at a price underneath.

Race 10

(3) ACCOUNT ROLLOVER well bred gelding raced super first start off over a month off.  The pacer could have more to offer and should offer a fair price.  (4) SCOTTY MACH N just missed last out against a similar bunch; threat.  (5) PREEMPTIVE BID has had some tough racing luck in recent starts but could threaten at a price.

Race 11

In a field with few contenders (4) DP ANGEL will offer a better price and has beaten the favorite recently.  (3) ALWAYS ABOUT KATEY mare is the horse to beat but has lacked her usual pop turning for home; use caution.  (2) PARTY HANGOVER mare parlayed a perfect trip last start and should be in line for another ground saving trip; threat.

Race 12

(1) SVAYA KNOWS never had much of a chance last out being hampered by a dull outer flow.  The pacer will be used very aggressively from the rail.  (4) ACES AGAIN is in the same boat as the top choice and will be firing late.  (7) FORTUNE DOR pacer makes his third start back off a long layoff and is sitting on a good effort soon.

Race 13

(2) FOX VALLEY REBEL takes a big drop in for a tag and was loaded with pace a few starts ago.   (9) BARBOSA has some ability and has really improved in for a new trainer.  (10) ITS A BIG SECRET needs to find a way into the race but is one of the better late closers in the field.

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